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PhiEaglesfan712

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Everything posted by PhiEaglesfan712

  1. PhiEaglesfan712
    Yeah, I was at Buffalo for the eclipse, and the last full day I was there (April 9), it was already almost 80 degrees. [I was glad to get the last bit of snow on April 5.] Here, at PHL, Dec-July was very warm. It was August and September that was cool. October was a return to very warm, and it looks like November will be the same. The last time we had that temperature profile during the fall was 2020-21, and we got a decent winter out of it.
  2. PhiEaglesfan712
    I factored CC into my winter forecast. I even have a +8 to +10 month in there. Every winter since 2015-16 has had at least one uber warm month except for 2018-19 and 2020-21 (althought November 2020 was very warm).
  3. PhiEaglesfan712
    My winter forecast (PHL): Dec: -1 to 0 Jan: +8 to +10 Feb: -1 to 0 Mar: +3 to +5 Overall: +3 to +4 Snowfall: 12-20 inches
  4. PhiEaglesfan712
    We had 3 earthquakes in the last 15 years: 8/23/2011 - I was at the Penn Museum 11/30/2017 - I was on my way home getting a cake for my father's 57th birthday 4/5/2024 - I was travelling to Buffalo for the Eclipse. I think I was around Scranton when the Earthquake happened.
  5. PhiEaglesfan712
    First time in 22 years. To put this into perspective, the last time we made it to severe drought designation, the Eagles still played at Veterans Stadium.
  6. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think the Modoki el nino only happens if the -PDO subsides. If we're still in -PDO, we're most likely in ENSO neutral or la nina. 2 el ninos in 3 years is rare, much less impossible in -PDO.
  7. PhiEaglesfan712
    My winter forecast (PHL): Dec: -1 to 0 Jan: +8 to +10 Feb: -1 to 0 Mar: +3 to +5 Overall: +3 to +4 Snowfall: 12-20 inches Winter 2024-25 is going to have one outlier warm month (like February 2018, December 2021, and December 2023) that is going to skew the temperature departure. I feel that January is going to be the uber warm month, in a winter that is otherwise normal temperaturewise. In regards to snowfall, I see 07-08 being the floor and 20-21 being the ceiling. I see an early snow event around December 4-16, followed by a long snow lull through the end of January, with the bulk of the cold and snow in February.
  8. PhiEaglesfan712
    If by 'beat' you mean a higher temperature on Christmas, then the answer is obviously no. Keep in mind, the record for the month of December at PHL is 73. It isn't going to be 80+ on Christmas, lol.
  9. PhiEaglesfan712
    It doesn't rain anymore, so I guess we now have to start measuring the thickness of our fog, lol.
  10. PhiEaglesfan712
    So it was fall 2016 into 2017, which would be another el nino -> la nina swing, like 1998-99 and 2007 (possibly this year if we get a la nina). Droughts tend to happen in years when we go from strong el nino -> la nina or el nino -> strong la nina. 1998, when we had the widespread drought, was one of the strongest swings from a super el nino -> strong la nina.
  11. PhiEaglesfan712
    I think you meant to say 2007, not 2017. There was no drought near us in 2017. That was a wet late spring and summer, especially May, July, and August. Not to mention, the winter that followed had a considerable amount of snow early and late (surrounded by outlier near-record warm February). There might have been a drought in fall 2007, as September and most of October was dry (until the rainstorm on the 24th-27th).
  12. PhiEaglesfan712
    To be fair, we were way overdue for a drought. We haven't had one since 2001-02. Heck, we haven't even come close to having drought conditions late October 2007, and a rainstorm saved us from one. I'd argue that the drought itself isn't the one-in-1000-year event, but rather the 22-year gap in between droughts is. I bet if you go back in records, there probably isn't even a gap of 10 years without a drought before this.
  13. PhiEaglesfan712
    Which part of Canada? Was it the West? Because I'm pretty sure it wasn't anywhere in Eastern Canada because here in the mid-Atlantic, we got one of our coolest May-June periods ever, and an overall cool summer. May/June was dominated by a blocking pattern that caused the smoky orange skies in NYC/mid-Atlantic in June 2023.
  14. PhiEaglesfan712
    Only problem is that the la nina died in 2001, and by this point in 2002, we were heading towards a solid moderate el nino and the pattern was changing. We don't have anything close to that right now. If anything, we are much closer to the conditions of 2001-02, which was a very warm and snowless winter. This drought is likely going on for a while. Best hope is that we get a 2020-21 type winter, and then a tropical rainstorm in the summer. That's how we broke the 1998-99 drought.
  15. PhiEaglesfan712
    I can think of only one: 2001-02. That winter was cooked even before it began.
  16. PhiEaglesfan712
    I wouldn't be surprised if we had one of the warmest winters on record. Our last 2 droughts, in late 1998 and 2001-02, produced 2 very warm winters, especially 01-02. That was a wall-to-wall torch winter, bookended with 80s in late October and mid-90s in mid-April, with all winter months (December, January, February, and March) recording at least one 70+ high.
  17. PhiEaglesfan712
    Amazing how we were able to get such a warm and virtually snowless month in December 2014, despite every warning sign flashing a very cold and snowy winter. Definitely the outlier month of that winter. JFM 2015 was the coldest JFM since 1978, beating out JFM 2014.
  18. PhiEaglesfan712
    In hindsight, it was easy to see why there is a drought this fall. Our last two droughts were in 1998-99 and 2001-02. This year shared characteristics with both years. 1998-99 was coming off a strong ONI el nino and 2001-02 was near a solar maximum. This year, we have both happening. Don't expect the drought to end any time soon. In fact, I had 1998-99 pegged as an analog in page 2 of this thread:
  19. PhiEaglesfan712
    I get the feeling November-February 2024-25 is going to mimic October-January 2021-22. November and January are going to be absolute torch months, while December and February are going to be near (and possibly even slightly cooler than) normal. That +10 January is going to skew the temperature departure of this winter into a +3 or +4, when the rest of the winter was otherwise near normal.
  20. PhiEaglesfan712
    1998-99 is a much better analog than 1999-2000. 1998 is a near perfect MEI/RONI match, a strong el nino -> la nina transition, a dry fall for most of the Eastern US (which led to a drought winter), and near identical Atlantic hurricane season activity. 1999-2000, much like 2011-12, was one of the wettest falls on record, which is clearly not what we have here.
  21. PhiEaglesfan712
    The Weather Channel has been good at predicting winter torch months well in advance, at least in recent years. They had months like December 2021 and December 2023 torching well in advance. FWIW, they have January torching. I think there will a window for a snow in early-to-mid December, but there will be a great snow lull/torch in late December through January. The bulk of the cold and snow will be in February.
  22. PhiEaglesfan712
    What makes this winter tough to predict is the disjointedness of the ONI, RONI, and MEI. We've never had a scenario before where the ONI is somewhere near ENSO neutral, the MEI is a strong la nina, and the RONI is somewhere in the middle. The best we can do is probably find years where 2 of the 3 measures are somewhat similar: 1998-99: MEI & RONI 2007-08: MEI & RONI 2016-17: ONI & RONI 2020-21: MEI & RONI
  23. PhiEaglesfan712
    Interesting to note that the most severe Atlantic hurricane season on record would follow.
  24. PhiEaglesfan712
    The NOAA ONI has finally been updated for JAS (-0.1). The JJA number has also been revised from 0.1 to 0.0
  25. PhiEaglesfan712
    It's a rare type of El Niño in which unfavorable conditions are produced over the eastern Pacific instead of the Atlantic basin due to warmer sea surface temperatures farther west along the equatorial Pacific. The result would be a very deadly, destructive, and active hurricane season, like 2004. That said, I do not see it happening. I just cannot see the PDO (which is at near record negative) anywhere near neutral or even +PDO like we had in 2004-05 to form the modoki el nino. [Remember, the last transition from -PDO to +PDO, which started in 2013, took at least a couple years to complete. Also, everyone was talking about an el nino in 2012-13, and it didn't start to form until fall 2014, and only really took off in spring 2015.] I suppose we'll still be in -PDO, and either in la nina or ENSO neutral in 2025-26.
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