PhiEaglesfan712

And now with Milton about to strike, I guess the JAS numbers will probably come out with the ASO numbers on 11/4.

Any reason why the NOAA hasn't updated the ONI and RONI numbers for July/August/September 2024 yet? The numbers are usually updated within the first 4 days of the month, and it's already October 7.

Although, the September/February temperature correlation has been solid here at PHL since 2006-07. In 17 of the last 18 years, when the September average temperature has been above 71, the following February's average temperature was also above 36, and when the September average temperature was below 71, the following February's temperature was also below 36. The only exception was 2008-09, when September 2008 finished at 70.4 and February 2009 finished at 37.1 (though we did get two 8-inch snowstorms in early February and March 1-2). September 2024 came in at 70.6, so that's a good omen for a cold and snowy February.

Unless we get a severe rain/mud storm (like we did in late October 2007), we're headed for our first drought since 2001-02.

I've said 2016 (15/7/4 with 140 ACE) was probably right around where we were going to end up.

ACY still got over a foot with that one. The January 28-29, 2022 snow map is eerily similar. Both were misses north and west of PHL, but the coast really got slammed. The last widespread 24-36" event was January 22-23, 2016.

If you lived near a coast, then 2017-18 (and maybe 2021-22) could have beaten out some of those years. Same with 1993-94 and 2020-21 for many areas north and west of PHL. The snow was just not as widespread in the Eastern US as many of those other listed years. [93-94 may not have been as snowy in most locations, but it was wall-to-wall widespread cold, and may have rivaled 95-96 in that regard.] Years like 10-11 and 13-14 were snowy no matter where you lived in the Eastern US.

Sorry, I can't see this happening. The only way this happens is if we have anywhere near a 13-14 solution this winter. For that to happen, as @snowman19pointed out, the PDO configuration and the North Pacific SSTs have to change very quickly for this scenario to even be viable. Even then, there's no guarantee even 2026-27 will be an el nino (just look what happened in 14-15, the el nino didn't really take off until the spring). We're still years away from the next el nino.

Oddly enough, since 2009-10, the September temperature has been an indicator of whether the upcoming February will be warmer than average, at least here at PHL. Sep 2009 - 68.0 Feb 2010 - 31.8 Sep 2010 - 72.9 Feb 2011 - 37.2 Sep 2011 - 71.1 Feb 2012 - 40.9 Sep 2012 - 70.3 Feb 2013 - 35.1 Sep 2013 - 67.9 Feb 2014 - 32.1 Sep 2014 - 70.5 Feb 2015 - 25.8 Sep 2015 - 74.5 Feb 2016 - 38.6 Sep 2016 - 73.5 Feb 2017 - 44.2 Sep 2017 - 71.4 Feb 2018 - 41.9 Sep 2018 - 72.5 Feb 2019 - 37.1 Sep 2019 - 72.5 Feb 2020 - 40.8 Sep 2020 - 69.4 Feb 2021 - 34.2 Sep 2021 - 71.6 Feb 2022 - 39.7 Sep 2022 - 72.1 Feb 2023 - 42.7 Sep 2023 - 71.4 Feb 2024 - 40.1 All the sub-71 Septembers (in bold) have produced a below average February. September 2024 is going to end below 71. If the trend continues, February 2025 temperature is going to be below average at PHL.

I don't think 20-21 is that bad of an analog. It's probably the best MEI/RONI match after 07-08. Things going against it are solar min (but so was 07-08) and that it was a hyperactive hurricane season. It isn't the top analog (07-08 is), but it's certainly in the next best ones along with 16-17 (great ONI/RONI match) and 98-99. I'd go 07-08, 16-17, and 20-21 as best analog years.

2016 ended with 15/7/4 and 140 ACE. I think those are the upper end numbers for this year.

07-08 is probably the top analog right now. That year, we had just the 2 big storms (Dean and Felix) like we do this year (Beryl and Helene). Also, the la nina development took off right about this time in 2007, and though we will likely not reach the ONI strength of that year, the MEI/RONI are a near perfect match. Not to mention, 07-08 was a central based, modoki la nina. Only thing really going against it was that 07-08 was near a solar minimum, while we are currently near a solar maximum. 22-23 was a dissipating la nina, which is opposite of what we have this year.

2015-16 is probably the closest thing to that. Record warm December by a wide margin, then one record-breaking snowstorm on January 22-23, and not much snow outside of that. The winter was bookended by a near record warm November and March.

Yeah, but then again, 2007 was also near a solar minimum. La nina forming during a solar maximum is very rare (1988-89 is probably the closest to one in the last 100 years). La ninas tend to form close to a solar minimum (1944, 1954, 1964, 1995, 2007, and 2020).

I think this upcoming winter will play out somewhere between 2007-08 and 2020-21, rather than 2022-23. I never really liked 2022. That was a dissipating la nina, and we likely have a strengthening la nina (which we had 2007 and 2020). Plus, August/September 2022 was near record warm. This August/September has been close to average, and the coldest AS combo since 2013. FWIW, August 2007 and September 2020 were close to average temperature months. My guess is that there will be a snow event during the first half of December (2007 had one early in the month and 2020 in the middle of the month), followed by a snow lull through the end of January, and February will be the snowiest month, but the last snow will be around February 22 (which coincidentally was the last snow date in both years).

2024-25 la nina RONI -1.2 to -1.4 MEI -1.5 to -1.7

Everything is opposite to what we have this year. That was a +PDO and -AMO year. 2007-08 and 2020-21, despite both being at a solar min, seem like the best matches to me. I'd give 07-08 the edge as the top analog because the hurricane activity of 2007 is even very similar to this year. 1998-99 and 2016-17 are other good matches.

Next year, we might be, though. Right now, we are still in the deep negative PDO phase like 2011 and 2012: 2011 -1.80 -1.46 -1.28 -1.02 -0.66 -1.08 -2.30 -2.37 -2.50 -1.92 -2.95 -2.40 2012 -1.85 -1.35 -1.66 -1.01 -2.12 -1.63 -2.40 -2.60 -2.99 -1.22 -0.66 -1.31

What happened with the PDO in 2013 is what I see happening in 2025. We will start to moderate out and be in the -0.5 and -1.5 range. 2013 (2025) -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 -1.09 -1.04 This will set the stage for a +PDO el nino in the 2026-28 timeframe. 2014 (2026) -0.57 -0.42 0.30 0.36 1.27 -0.28 0.25 0.34 0.76 1.43 1.35 1.86 2015 (2027) 1.51 1.52 1.33 0.90 0.32 0.82 1.41 0.98 0.97 0.84 0.17 0.29 2016 (2028) 0.75 1.29 1.56 1.74 1.60 0.87 0.57 -0.63 -0.80 -0.43 0.96 0.61

It's crazy to see how disjointed the ONI, RONI, and MEI are right now. As recently as 2020-21, the 3 indices were in tandem. I wonder if the indices are going to start converging this year and all peak in the -1 to 1.2 or -1.2 to -1.4 moderate la nina range, or if we're going to get a year where the ONI that's barely a weak la nina or even a cold neutral, while the RONI is a moderate la nina, and the MEI is a strong la nina.

If I had to venture a guess on this winter, my gut feeling tells me it will be somewhere between 2007-08 and 2020-21. Those years are the best match on the RONI/MEI. I think we get a snow event in the first half of December, then a lull in snow until the end of January, and February will be the snowiest month, with the snow season coming to an abrupt end around February 22nd.

If I had to bet, in 12 months we'll probably still be in la nina, but the subsurface will turn warm (like 2021 and 2022). I also think the PDO will still be negative, but not in the -2's or -3's, rather in the -1's and making its way towards 0. The signs of a future el nino will be there, with the only thing left to see is if it develops in 2026-27 or 2027-28.

Quite frankly, I don't know because it's a fluky event that has no precedence. It would be like if it snowed in Orlando during the vernal equinox, and asking if it's a good signal for Melbourne during the Austral winter. It hasn't happened before, so I couldn't tell you one way or the other. I mean, we got a fluke snow event in late October 2011, and that winter ended up as one of the warmest and least snowy on record.

That would be like if it snowed in Orlando on March 19.

What would make my winter is if we got a snowstorm on Super Bowl Sunday (February 9, 2025) like we did during the winter of 20-21.