PhiEaglesfan712

2nd year la ninas tend to have above average hurricane seasons in the Atlantic. 2008, 2011, and 2021 are especially very good examples.

If we're going to be stuck in deep negative PDO, I really can't see anything else but a continued la nina.

That's certainly possible. The thing with el ninos is that you can see them coming, but they can take years to develop. In the mid-2010s el nino, a lot of people were calling for it to happen in 2012-13, but didn't start to develop until 2014-15 and the super el nino happened in 2015-16. The next el nino could happen in 2026-27, or it could happen in 2027-28. Whenever it happens, I think the PDO will have flipped to positive. Ideally, the subsurface will turn warm either by next summer or the summer of 2026.

Considering the MEI is already at -0.7 (it's already achieved weak la nina status for 2024-25), I think the AS reading should be deep into moderate la nina territory, possibly even reach the strong la nina threshold.

I will always find it amazing how the Tuck Rule game happened during the only day it snowed on an otherwise record warm winter of 2001-02. This storm and the January 2016 blizzard are classic examples of one storm making an otherwise very warm winter season memorable.

The difference is the subsurface was warm in the 2 summers leading up to it. We still have a cold subsurface and the PDO is even deeper negative. I just cannot see how an el nino will form under those conditions. An el nino in 2025-26 would truly be an outlier. In the previous 75 years, no year with a deep negative PDO and cold subsurface produced an el nino the following year.

Yeah, the PDO still in deep negative. I think this means we can also rule out an el nino forming in 2025-26. If one was going to form, wouldn't the PDO be heading back towards positive? We're likely to get a 2nd year la nina, although there is a chance for an ENSO neutral.

I prefer a blend of 2007 and 2020 as my analogs. They are the best matches on the MEI. If I were to use 2022, I'd use it as a reverse log. Everything seems to be lining up opposite. 2022 was a dissipating la nina, a warm subsurface, and a record warm August/September. This year is a possibly strengthening la nina, a cold subsurface, and a relatively cool August/September. Who knows, maybe this time we get a cold January/February (and maybe a record warm May/June):

Give me +PNA/+NAO in November, and now we're talking.

If that's the case, then the MEI is going strong la nina in 2024-25. It would be the 3rd strong MEI la nina in 4 years. If the MEI is out of sync with the ONI and RONI in 2024-25, it would be the 4th straight season dating back to 2021-22. All had 2020-21 as a moderate la nina.

If that's the case, then I guess the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake may be the culprit. We've been in a perpetual warm blob in the North Pacific since 2013-14.

1955-56 was a strong ONI la nina. Winter wasn't too cold (especially January and February), but November and December were cold, as were the spring months. 1956-57 was pretty much a weaker version la nina of 2022-23, a 3rd year la nina that dissipated early in the season. I'm not surprise the map was warm and resembled 2022-23. The big difference is that the subsurface was warm throughout. I'm pretty sure if this board was around that time, they'd be calling for an el nino in 1955-56 or 1956-57. Maybe we're heading into a 1954-57 pattern, where we get a multi-year la nina that reaches its peak intensity in Year 2, rather than Year 1.

Regarding el ninos, I think moderate el nino seems to be the sweet spot for cold/snow for most: Strong el ninos tend to be hit or miss. In the mid-Atlantic, we have had snowy strong el nino years like 1957-58 and 2009-10, as well as duds like 2023-24.

Based on the graph, it's interesting to note that the 3 warmest winters were 2009-10, 2015-16, and 2023-24 - the 3 most recent ONI strong/super el ninos. I remember the Winter Olympics in Vancouver being affected by the abnormally warm winter of 2009-10.

Does the MEI go strong la nina like 2021-22 and 2022-23, or does it stay moderate like 2020-21? The MEI is running cooler than even the RONI. It had 2023-24 as a weak el nino, about the same as 2006-07. The only other strong el nino to not reach the +1.5 threshold was 2009-10, and that one got to +1.3 late in the season. Both aren't really traditional strong el nino years like the 1980s and 1990s (1982-83, 1986-88, 1991-92, and 1997-98 all reached +2 on the MEI).

The coastal areas, like ACY, fared the best in the snow department in 2021-22. Those were the same areas that did the worst in 2020-21, where the storm tracks seem to be north and west of PHL/I-95.

PNA stayed negative in January 2023. It didn't turn positive until June. 2022 11 -0.71 2022 12 -0.96 2023 1 -0.37 2023 2 -1.15 2023 3 -1.89 2023 4 -0.65 2023 5 -0.67 2023 6 0.84

So maybe a 1992-93 or 1993-94 type season?

Last 15 la nina years (grouped by ONI strength) Weak: Moderate: Strong:

2021-22 through 2023-24 MEI vs. RONI vs. ONI 2021-22: MEI - Strong/super la nina; RONI - Moderate la nina; ONI - Moderate la nina 2022-23: MEI - Strong/super la nina; RONI - Moderate la nina; ONI - Moderate la nina 2023-24: MEI - Weak el nino; RONI - Moderate/strong el nino; ONI - Strong el nino

2022-23 is hard to classify (the last 3 years for that matter because the MEI, RONI, and ONI were all out of whack). The MEI had this as a super la nina, but this one peaked earlier in season, and dissipated as the season went on. I have it as a moderate la nina (the RONI splits the difference), same as 2021-22 (since they were pretty much the same la nina, just peaking in between season). 2000-01 would replace 2022-23 in this case, and December 2000 was even better than December 2022. February 2001, 2006, and 2009 all had a snowstorm here at PHL, even though all of them finished above average temperaturewise.

Not really. 2016-17 and 2017-18 were weak la ninas, and they produced the 2 of the warmest Februarys all-time in the Eastern US.

2014 is the only other hurricane season in recent history in the Atlantic to be as inactive as this one. That year only had 2 named storms in September: Dolly and Edouard. Coincidentally, this was the last season to have a later dated first storm than this year. 2014 finished with 8 named storms, making it the least active season in the 21st century. 2014 was an active year in the Pacific. That is certainly not the case this September, with Ilena being the only named storm this month.

Looks like August had a -PNA. 2024 8 -1.04 This is good news for the mid-Atlantic. We just need a blocking pattern in November, and we'll be in business for this winter.

October -PNA works better than December -PNA here in the mid-Atlantic. Probably would get a backloaded winter out of this, as November and December would be a torch, but hopefully a March 2023-type block in January would lead to cold and snow opportunities in the first 4 months of 2025.