PhiEaglesfan712

It's a rare type of El Niño in which unfavorable conditions are produced over the eastern Pacific instead of the Atlantic basin due to warmer sea surface temperatures farther west along the equatorial Pacific. The result would be a very deadly, destructive, and active hurricane season, like 2004. That said, I do not see it happening. I just cannot see the PDO (which is at near record negative) anywhere near neutral or even +PDO like we had in 2004-05 to form the modoki el nino. [Remember, the last transition from -PDO to +PDO, which started in 2013, took at least a couple years to complete. Also, everyone was talking about an el nino in 2012-13, and it didn't start to form until fall 2014, and only really took off in spring 2015.] I suppose we'll still be in -PDO, and either in la nina or ENSO neutral in 2025-26.

I can already tell you that 1998 is going to be one of the analogs. I've done that fall/winter composite ad nauseum.

I think most reasonable people knew this was going to be a -PDO winter, and likely a record -PDO. The only ones that thought otherwise were probably the CanSIPS and the people pushing 2013-14 as a good analog. I could tell early on that 2013-14 wasn't going to be a good analog. In 2013, the PDO was (generally) heading towards neutral. This year, the PDO has only gotten deeper into the negative. Maybe 2013-14 could be a good analog for 2025-26, but definitely not this winter. 2013 -1.10 -1.42 -1.48 -0.72 -0.40 -1.19 -1.34 -1.56 -1.00 -1.65 -1.09 -1.04 2024 -1.55 -1.33 -1.52 -2.12 -2.99 -3.16 -2.99 -2.91 -3.54

I guess we won't know for sure until we get the AS and SO updates, but if @bluewave's post about "getting a very strong October La Niña atmospheric response with a record 500mb +EPO Alaskan vortex for October" is correct, then the SO number is coming in around -1.5, as the MEI was already at -0.7 at last update (JA). It will be interesting to see after the SO number comes in (whether it's -1.2, -1.5, or even -1.8), if the MEI levels out (like it did in 1998-99), and the ONI/RONI catch up to it. If that were to happen, then 98-99 would be a great MEI/RONI match, and 2020-21 would be the best ONI/RONI/MEI match.

I can't see the MEI peaking at -1.0 to -1.2 when it was at -0.7 in JJ/JA. In fact, it was probably already at -1.0 to -1.2 in AS. I think we're going even deeper, probably -1.4 to -1.6, in SO. Where things stand right now, I think a peak of -1.6 to -1.8 on the MEI makes more sense with a -1.2 to -1.4 RONI and -0.8 to -1 ONI.

The last real ENSO neutral season was 2013-14. However, 2014-15 and 2019-20 were pretty much ENSO neutral on both the MEI and RONI. Both years had at least 3+ trimonthlies of +0.5 on the ONI, so they technically meet the definition of a weak el nino. That said, I think we eek out at least 3 trimonthlies of -0.5 on the ONI and get the weak la nina on that measure like 2016-17. Regardless of whether the ONI stays an ENSO neutral or meets weak la nina status, this year is going to be very hard to classify if we get the expected strong la nina on the MEI and moderate la nina on the RONI.

At this point, I don't think we're getting an update until 11/4 or 11/5. I think JAS and ASO will be released at the same time. If we still don't get an update, I might just ask Eric Webb if he can update the Ensemble ONI. If I can just get a JAS/ASO number from either source, then I'll have a good feel on where the ENSO state will be during Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25.

lol, as soon as you wrote this, I knew this post was a joke. Keep in mind, our last drought (2001-02) was an ENSO neutral season near a solar max, and we got one of the warmest and least snowy winters on record. That said, I don't think we're getting an ENSO neutral winter. We are in a strengthening la nina. It probably won't be as strong as 1998-99, but we're heading towards an extended drought like that winter. The ONI might be saying ENSO neutral, but the MEI (https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/) was already showing a weak la nina at last update (JA), and is probably headed towards strong la nina territory by the next update.

I think most reasonable people are in agreement that this upcoming winter will be 2 warm months and one cool one, with January being one of the warm months. Accuweather is calling for a warmer than average winter with below average snowfall. February will be the best month for snow chances, but there could also be some storms in early December: https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/winter-forecast-for-the-us-in-the-2024-25-season/1699821

98-99 and 01-02 were the drought seasons. 11-12, while very warm, was very wet (especially in August/September 2011). 07-08 was more dry than 11-12. If not for the late October rainstorm in 2007, we probably have a drought.

Yeah, the MEI is going to be in strong la nina territory for the SO update. I wonder how close we get to the 21-22/22-23 peak.

I disagree about the Thanksgiving Day torch setting the tone. If that was the case, we would have not had a snow event on December 5, just two weeks later. November and December was the cold period that year. The torch that year happened in September and October. Thing is, 07-08 wasn't an out of the ordinary warm winter like those other years. December was below average temperaturewise, while January and February were only +2/+3 months. It's weird how the winter was bookended by the December 5 and February 22 snowstorms, with nothing much in between.

Even then, those years weren't a total loss in December. 07-08 had the early snow event on Dec 5, and had a negative temperature departure. Dec 2022 also had a negative temperature departure. 98-99, while a very warm December, famously had that miracle snow event 2 days before Christmas (2 days earlier we had record high temperatures in the 60s). We had a few good snows until mid-January, and then a lull until the end of February, and one last hurrah in early-to-mid March. 98-99, while a below average snow season, still had its moments. I see 07-08 as the worst case scenario for 24-25, and 20-21 the best case scenario. Most likely, we might something in the middle, like a 98-99 or 16-17.

This is what I see happening as well. I think there will be a snow event during the first half of December, followed by a snow lull until the end of January. The bulk of the cold and snow will be the first 3 weeks of February.

I highly doubt we add 40 ACE towards the end of the year. However, if we do, we could finish with a Top 10 ACE year. (NOTE: Data averages Wunderground & NOAA values for years 2016 and before, NOAA values only for 2017 and later) 1 2005 247.65 2 1933 235.785 3 1893 231.0738 4 1995 227.5513 5 1950 227.1413 6 2004 226.94 7 1926 225.7788 8 2017 224.8775 9 1961 196.95 10 1998 181.8838 11 2020 180.3725 12 1955 178.585

Yes, but you need cold air and precipitation for a snowstorm to happen. We had that in March/April 2018. We just didn't have that in March/April 2023, at least where I lived, until the huge rainstorm at the end of April. I mean, it's pretty hard to get snow when your late March/early April looks like this: 2023-03-21 61 32 46.5 1.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-22 64 38 51.0 5.6 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-23 62 48 55.0 9.3 10 0 0.42 0.0 0 2023-03-24 59 44 51.5 5.5 13 0 0.12 0.0 0 2023-03-25 49 44 46.5 0.1 18 0 0.23 0.0 0 2023-03-26 63 44 53.5 6.7 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-27 66 39 52.5 5.4 12 0 0.15 0.0 0 2023-03-28 53 39 46.0 -1.5 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-29 57 37 47.0 -0.9 18 0 T 0.0 0 2023-03-30 48 33 40.5 -7.7 24 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-03-31 63 35 49.0 0.4 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-01 71 50 60.5 11.5 4 0 0.50 0.0 0 2023-04-02 52 39 45.5 -3.9 19 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-03 63 35 49.0 -0.8 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-04 77 50 63.5 13.4 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-05 72 55 63.5 13.0 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-06 83 55 69.0 18.1 0 4 0.27 0.0 0 2023-04-07 59 47 53.0 1.7 12 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-08 51 39 45.0 -6.7 20 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-09 59 36 47.5 -4.6 17 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-10 65 37 51.0 -1.5 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-11 74 45 59.5 6.6 5 0 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-12 83 55 69.0 15.7 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-13 86 56 71.0 17.4 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2023-04-14 84 57 70.5 16.5 0 6 0.00 0.0 0

The problem was we didn't really have the cold air or precip for a snowstorm. The storms kept missing to the north. The cold and precip didn't really come together until the end of April, and by that point, it was too late for snow: 2023-04-28 56 49 52.5 -6.5 12 0 1.33 2023-04-29 61 49 55.0 -4.4 10 0 0.63 2023-04-30 63 52 57.5 -2.2 7 0 1.51 Like why couldn't we get a storm like this during the winter?

February 2018 was near record warm, but at least there was still some leftover cold from earlier in the season. Don't forget that we got some good cold and snows in late December 2017 and early January 2018. Years like 2009 and 2018 show that it can snow in March in the mid-Atlantic, despite the strong sun angle, but certain things have to be in place/come together to make it happen. It also helps that those years didn't have a +10 temperature departure for weeks on end like we had in January/February 2023.

I think here in the mid-Atlantic we end up with an above average temperature and below average snowfall winter, but we won't be too far from the averages. I think January will most likely be the above average month, as I think this will be the snow lull. December is going to be close to average, with a snow event early in the month. Most of the snow and cold will be during the first 3 weeks of February.

I am aware that the pattern started to change around February 25, and yes, there were storms in the last days of February and the beginning of March to the north. However, the warm ground and sun angle made it nearly impossible for snow to happen anywhere south of Newark/NYC, especially after the +10 temperature departures from January 1-February 23/24. The only way it was going to work is if everything fell into place like they did on March 1-2, 2009, and even then a snowstorm wasn't a guarantee. One big difference between 2009 and 2023 is that 2009 had leftover cold from October-January and a snowstorm in early February. We just had very little to no cold to work with in 2023. I know there's no guarantee it works out if the pattern change happened on December 25, rather than February 25. However, it would have bought us 2 more months for something to happen. Here, in the mid-Atlantic, the sun angle is low enough in January, it can snow even following a +10 departure in November/December. (2016 is a famous example.) But it's darn near impossible to snow in March following a +10 departure in January/February.

Or Mets/KC. That actually happened in 2015, and it was one of the lowest rated World Series ever. I bet the networks are praying that the Dodgers win Game 5. Mets/Padres NLCS would be an absolute ratings disaster.

The problem was the December one was way too short (it was gone by the end of the month) and the follow up in March took way too long to develop. By the time everything was in place for the cold, it was late April, early May - and it lasted until June - but it was too late for snow. However, the fact that the temperature departures were -2 to -4 in May and June (which is very rare for that time of year) shows that the potential was there. I think if the follow up block was the one in December instead, then the -3/-4 temperature departures would have taken place in January/February or February/March, which would have meant prime opportunities for snow (when it wasn't dry).

I highly doubt that we get a 22/23 type winter. If we do, then we've pretty reached a point of no return. In fact, I'm confident we get something closer to 20/21. The absolute worst case here (from NYC to the mid-Atlantic) is 07/08 [though, this was a very good winter in the midwest]. I think February will create the best chance for snow, and possibly a below average month. Also, don't count out a snow event in the first half of December.

Top 10 active hurricane seasons (through 2016) Rank Year Wunderground ACE Index NOAA ACE Index Average 1 2005 250 245.3 247.65 2 1933 213 258.57 235.785 3 1893 231 231.1475 231.0738 4 1995 228 227.1025 227.5513 5 1950 243 211.2825 227.1413 6 2004 227 226.88 226.94 7 1926 222 229.5575 225.7788 8 1961 205 188.9 196.95 9 1998 182 181.7675 181.8838 10 1955 199 158.17 178.585 2004 is the only one that led into an el nino. 1926 and 1961 were ENSO neutral. The rest led to la ninas. (This holds true even if 2017 and 2020 replace 1955 and 1998.)

I like 2020-21 as an analog due to the MEI/RONI match. Same with 2007-08. I also like 2016-17 as an analog due to the ONI/RONI match. Finally, I'd throw in 1998-99 due to the potential of a drought in the mid-Atlantic.