Ralph Wiggum

I agree with this. Definitely not a clean flush hit, at least not appearing that way right now. Ironically, the gefs mean is colder and snowier with a mean snowfall totals of 5" here in central bucks.

Pretty notable shifts on the CMC past 4 runs:

Exactly. It is also important to watch where models track the redeveloping slp. AIGFS is off the VA/NC border. Thats pretty key. Eta: is a function of the nao and the hp strength so yeah, all interconnected here

I know the pretty red L is up in Lake Ontario, but sure looks like the icon is depicting a slp popping near oc, MD. Alas, enough of this jv model. OK trend tho.

Not in the same ballpark as the gfs obviously, but the icon came pretty far S vs last run wrt slp located in the midwest/ov fwiw at 102

6z doubled down for Friday and the euro moved towards the gfs. HP in near perfect spot.

Congrats. You're the first to mention the possibility of punting til early February. You must be a real blast at parties.

24 hrs ago we un-punted late Dec thru mid Jan. Now we re-punted and are shitting the blinds? Cool, normal mid Dec stuff around here

The front just went thru here.

Brother, patience isn't even enough. Admittedly, I prematurely extrapolated. We are in dire trouble thru MLK day at best. I will check back after the New Year. Wishing a happy holiday to all you guys and gals.

@stormtracker needs to have his tech gurus add a vomit emoji

Ok lets be real....we arent losing the trof in the NW US anytime soon are we?

This seems pretty spot-on. Credit Paul( @ChescoWx) for this ripped from his FB.

Models have been hinting pretty good wrt to the Dec 28-Jan 2 period for almost a week already, albeit off and on. But now we're are seeing a growing signal across the ens means as well as an NAO blocking signature emerges from Scandinavia. Hunches dont get us winter storms, but instinct is suggesting this is a legit trackable window. 0z EPS: