Ralph Wiggum

Said essentially the same last night, tho not as eloquently worded as you. Another 2 weeks would be a little bit better for climo. But like you said, antecedent airmass (which also ties in with climo timing) just isnt good here for the lowlands. But....this cant be a bad signal getting chances in the first week of December. Might be a season with ample tracking situations. Happy Thanksgiving !

Happy Thanksgiving to you turkeys! Early week systems looks meh for I95/fall line south and east. Maybe a brief start as frozen along that demarcation points SE. N and W should see their first accumulating snow and mixing event. Few more weeks for climo to favor areas SE of the city.

Now we have an amped up ~990mb tight to the coast. Preferred the weaker strung out wave we had been seeing tbh. That strength and track is going to torch BL for those areas right near the fall line. Congrats interior tho.

Still feel fall line s and e will have to wait for theirs. One gfs run doesn't change my thoughts.

Even with a demamp'd storm, notice how 'warm' it is. The writing is on the wall with this one. Flat flow we walk the tightrope, amped up it pumps in too much warmth. Fall line and east are toast. On to the Dec 6 system.

Its still too early in the season. We need a thread the needle this time of year which likely doesn't happen with this system.

All hail, the King! Welcome my liege!

Well that escalated quickly. Only ~5.5 days out for start of precip:

Who is creating a thread?

I very rarely bet against the Birds, but if the odds are screaming against them, I will. Let's just say, I too am enjoying my evening much better now.

Urging caution when going out beyond 180hrs in a Nina. But alas, majority here are already aware of this.

Welcome to Nina December reality.

I realize you are propagating out past this, but looking at the raw data presented here, I'll be damned if the Southwest US oriented trof doesn't seem like a recurring background state past several years.

This feels like Groundhogs Day.

Yep. 65F Christmas week is how we usually roll in Ninas round these here parts