Ralph Wiggum

@Ji are you following your rule and going with the least snowy model, ie the gfs? Or does that not apply with this system?

Completely agreed. Probably wont end up a HECS, that would be mega rare in a Nina. But a MECS is clearly on the table and I dont think a single one of us would have scoffed at this potential going into a Nina winter. I always say keep expectations low.

Wow ...thats a jump if we r being honest. Where do I sign?

Euro is a major hit. GFS is shit

Paul showing qpf, im talking actual surface low position was N

Euro AI held course, even crept N a hair with the slp.

26 years to the day of Jan 25, 2000 Ninja'd by double d

Good spot to be on an ens mean at this lead! VA can have their jackpot, Im quite fine sitting at a half foot on a mean.

^^^This But hell, even the mis-timed CMC we still manage a foot+ region wide. There is ample wiggle room on either side.

And we still have amped models that have the sleet line to us. Im not too concerned tbh

Fwiw, the tree guy is here right now with the chipper, I kid you not. Should I dive in head-first or feet-first?

Superstitious are ya? oh ye of little faith

It is, and maybe just noise, but there were big enough differences under the hood to make me raise an eyebrow.

CMC also took a 150 mile jump South with the surface low off of SC. Still throws good moisture our way, better than GFS. But a notable increase in confluence and strength of HP to our North this run.

Well, if the storm gets derailed over the next day or so, I will close mine and we can start fresh with a new thread and good mojo