Ralph Wiggum

Funny thing is, gfs keeps doubling down even slight improvements each run....but its not like other guidance is trending bigly the other way. There has been very slow/subtle shifts across other guidance even giving a slight nod to the GFS. I dont think the GFS is 100% accurate by any means, but a 6hr change in timing of the shortwave in question on other guidance and boom the GFS suddenly has legs. We'll see. Being a betting man Im putting the mortgage on the gfs being the outlier though.

Maybe he's compensating for something?

How does the latest SPIRE look?

It has done this 4 times already this season and stubbornly caved starting at 2.5 days lead time. Why will this be any different?

I trust Hurricane Schwartz, Larry Cosgrove, and even dare I say DT more than a FB blurb only posting model output.

When most major respected mets have written this off, that speaks volumes.

Most of us would. But it feel like we've been led down this road a few times already this season where the GFS/GEFS go against concensus and move towards something bigger while the other models slowly move to the Euro. Then when we are within 3 days the GFS stubbornly and slowly moves away from the big storm. Im hoping we are not seeing this again here, so I am being cautious with this one.

RGEM is tucked so much that it's rain to start all.the way to the LV.

Hurricane Schwartz a short while ago says we lost this one way south and wont curve fast enough to hit us. Claims there is virtually no model support at all for a high impact storm. All guidance is clustered Hatteras and south with the surface low.

You do know it has snowed in the first days of March before right? And mid March. And late March. Accumulating snows into mid April too. But I'll take your word, thanks for the hot take.

Looks like winter isnt over either after this weekend per the GFS. Models continue to trend colder next 2 weeks. Here's the March 3 system:

3rd period USA-Sweden olympic men's hockey. Should.be a banger.

He should stay there tbh

I was somewhat surprised at how big of a jump the EPS made also.

@ravensrule