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Ralph Wiggum

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About Ralph Wiggum

  • Birthday 08/06/1974

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDYL
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Warminster, PA

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  1. Ralph Wiggum

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    Dude seriously chill out. What are you attacking me for? And yes it is officially met winter it began Dec 1. You really need to check yourself man this is a weather hobby group dont be so angry lol.
  2. Ralph Wiggum

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    Be careful or the trolls will say you cancelled winter because you told it like it is lol.
  3. Ralph Wiggum

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    I think after this approx 2 week period of N to AN temps and cutter storms we shift gears finally around the 21st and I am seeing signals on some LR stuff that tells me the period Dec 22-26 give or take a day bears watching. Whether or not the better looking pattern will hold or becomes transient tbd.
  4. Ralph Wiggum

    December Medium/Long Range Discussion

    Here comes our Christmas Eve/Christmas Day snowstorm moving thru the Rockies on the 23rd. It's gonna happen:
  5. Ralph Wiggum

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    Models continue to squash and shred the lp and the swath of snow continues to shrink even for them. I'm not impressed with where we are at nor where we are headed thru at least calendar winter.
  6. Ralph Wiggum

    December 9/10 Storm

    A good example of how a handful of us had this period circled since just after Thanksgiving because of the pattern looks on the LR ens. Globals currently portray basically what we were looking at....+pna, nao ridge, 50/50 low, stj energy passing below us. But this is a prime example of how a meso feature or 2 embedded within those good looks can screw the whole thing up. You noted these features very well in your post.
  7. Ralph Wiggum

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread

    We almost always pay for those early starts. Certainly not looking like a winter of yore thus far.
  8. Ralph Wiggum

    December 9/10 Storm

    Is that another suppressed S VA, Carolinas hit at day 9-10 on the Euro? That's where we want it at this range right? Eta: nm....too warm everywhere
  9. Ralph Wiggum

    December 9-10, 2018 Wintry Weather Threat

    I have my fork ready. 18z runs are the most important model runs since, well, um, 12z
  10. Ralph Wiggum

    December Banter 2018

    In a nutshell, until I see actual changes in the pattern and not just what weeklies, monthlies, or otherwise show, I like sticking with current patterns. Im not necessarily a member of the "atmosphere doesn't forget" club, but there is some validity to that as you can attest to, ie, patterns.....they are patterns because the tend to repeat. But even with the Ninos we have seen since 2000, it has been hard to get a -NAO to really stick like the old climo suggests. Climatology averages change over time as you are aware. So based on the decadal pattern we have been in (which could change so I dont sound contradictory....but "when"?) I think the NAO ridging will be transient again. My discussion was also not about the NAO necessarily breaking down but more about how the weeklies and monthlies have this feature trying to lock-in and how epic patterns on progs such as this usually in terms of real weather require a breakdown or relax to get a big storm. I completely agree that to have an AN snowfall year we dont NEED a HECS......heck (no pun intended) we dont even need a MECS or a SECS. Alot of us along I95 can nickel and dime our way to N or even AN. As far as the WAR, it was a feature most of the summer which isnt abnormal BUT I noticed this feature held on longer than usual and when I gathered ideas back in Oct to form an outlook we were still dealing with this off and on. Maybe I have a bad taste still from 14-15(?) where that feature was a common theme....forgive me if I am referencing the wrong season btw. They tend to blend together in my middle age And yeah, I could totally see a squashed pattern as well especially if the Atl remains flat and somewhat progressive tho other factors like a raging EPO ridge among others could overwhelm us with too much cold at times IF the LR stuff has any merit.
  11. Ralph Wiggum

    December Banter 2018

    Didnt start reading yet, I will after I grab another cup of coffee but I was ready for the counter point as i know you are on the debate team iirc. Always admire a fellow PSU person :-)
  12. Ralph Wiggum

    December Banter 2018

    Well said. But I'm pretty sure Ji posted that he expects no less than 3 HECS for the region this year
  13. Ralph Wiggum

    December Banter 2018

    I hope Im wrong too. I love snowstorms and love tracking them as much as anyone. If u read my outlook I'm not calling for a shutout this winter just BN in my area....not the much AN alot of folks had gone with in their outlooks.
  14. Ralph Wiggum

    December Banter 2018

    I agree. My original post was banter that, and I should have been more specific, that alot of folks equate an epic pattern with an epic storm. Doesnt usually work that way.
  15. Ralph Wiggum

    December Banter 2018

    Transient neg Nao and war were my biggest factors that went into my outlook. Wasnt an overly complex outlook either. I see the positives....I see the AO tendencies. By I also see the neg NAO that isn't timing properly with the PAC. And this isn't new.....this has been a decadal function. The tendencies have also been to pop a WAR that has either led to tracks, N and W, tucked coastal surface lows, or flattened when we get a stj entity moving across. Was hoping this coming storm would set the precedent for winter but this keeps repeating itself. I respect and admire those that have knowledge of alot more teleconnection and atmospheric factors than I (SOI, GLAM(?), etc) and factor those into LR forecasting and such but sometimes dont you think as a whole too much info overload makes things more complicated than perhaps needed? I'm probably completely incorrect about anything I've said....I learn new things every single day about this hobby. I'm hoping my outlook busts this year like my optimistic approach on this coming storm looks to have. And you know me (I think). I used to be a tool though many will argue I still am lol, but I also admit defeat and if I'm wrong while also not pumping my chest if I score a win like I used to 15 years ago. Just my thoughts. Cheers.
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