Ralph Wiggum

Trend was clearly South past 3 runs.

We had blocking a good chunk of the past 2 winters. The nao is currently east-based. It isnt set to transition to a west based (more favorable) -nao until middle of next week....and even there is a little east of where we would like to see it. You need more than blocking to get a good storm. That is only 1 aspect. Eta: there is also quite a difference between a ridge in the nao and a true closed block.

Ukmet is messy, not a horrible run if you like snow and mix

Thats what I was waiting for. Ty

Updated:

Yep. Complete nowcast event probably.

I dont believe this is a "non event".

AIGFS all snow SE PA

Hrrr looks like the upgraded NAM with NYC dryslotted and a stripe over S PA. Model mayhem

Fv3 is a significant snowstorm ha!

Wow even NyC hardly sees a flake.

Wow. And this is what we are 'upgrading' to?

We desperately need the NAMs to score a win....though we know they likely wont.

Dafuq is the NAM smoking? Frozen still happening Sunday AM now.

Seems aggressive most likely due to being a significant travel weekend. Better to be safe can always scale back.