RitualOfTheTrout

I dont disagree this hasn't quite been "historic heat" per se, but given we are getting it in mid June vs July and August which is more typical plus the duration still makes this a rather unusual setup. If this setup reoccurs later in July or August Id bet we get upper 90s. Of course cloud cover / storm development also threw a wrench in the forecast. Just like in winter, you dont always maximize a great pattern for a big storm I guess.

No doubt non standardized & less accurate equipment combined with varying procedures and changes in sensor location make over analyzing past data older than 30 years for comparison to today's readings a fool's errand. It would be interesting if some of those older technologies were run synchronously with the new technology to see the differences and provide solid data that would be hard to refute. In any case, the trend over the last 30 years is higher temperatures, no way to sugar coat that. For our sakes, let's hope the current period is perhaps a combination of constructively interfering factors all adding to more pronounced warming in the overall trend and not the beginning of the last chance to avoid any tipping points. Anyone caught in those storms out there today? Plenty of fuel, NWS makes mention of strong winds as the biggest hazard, curious how that is materializing in the strongest cells.

Pretty awesome for sure, we saw a pretty bright pulse, could see the waves in the colors. This is the best picture we got:

I've been feeling this one, usually this time of year you can cool down in the evening / overnight. Couple of borderline uncomfortable nights the last week or two, still holding off turning the AC on. On a side note, started putting in some of the garden, started a bunch of stuff from seed in March, but they've been outside and growing crazy and quickly exceeding the pots, likely due to this warmth. Assume now we will get several hard freezes in mid May.

Spoke too soon, couple rumbles on the backend, nothing crazy though.

Same, pretty gusty but not even a rumble of thunder. Looks like the line is rapidly weakening. Also seems to have split right before it hit my area which is a fairly common occurrence.

Looks like a good call. Mother natures firework show lighting up the sky right now.

Feeling the temperature drop in totality is something that goes understated as part of the overall experience, I knew it happened but until you feel it while the eclipse is happening can't really put words to it. Hard to imagine the temp didn't drop, unless there was influence from heat island effect or something.

I hear you on this, I was looking at the maps (https://eclipsewise.com/eclipse.html) and really gets you thinking in timescales that illustrate just how brief a trip we get here even if all goes well and makes you appreciate getting to see this one. 2090s looking good for grandchildren though from an eclipse viewing travel perspective..

If I think about maybe not so odd PIT failed to drop temperature as expected. #Winter.

Headed up to Northern OH, SE of Cleveland based on the satellite trends at the time. Clouds were only whispy cirus type so near perfect for eclipse viewing. It was pretty awesome, saw some stars, felt the temp drop, just jaw dropping watching it. Looked like there was some sort of flare or CME we could see. Son is 5, hes been drawing pictures of it all night, safe to say this will be a strong memory. Kinda like a snow storm, now I want another one.

Well, she's going to have a great view above the clouds, but Im sure she will be with you to experience it. I've never experienced a full eclipse, but they say its awe inspiring / spiritual thing to see. Its going to be close, but some clearing coming into eastern OH now. Trends seem to be leaning towards that moving faster, so maybe with a bit of luck we can get a favorable window to see it. Never tracked clouds before, lol but got the GOES IR loop in refresh.

Absolutely gross outside this morning, 36 with cold rain / wind / graupel / snow / mud. Anyone planning to travel for Eclipse totality? Im tentatively thinking Meadville-ish area, get 2+ minutes of totality and a headstart South from all the people in Erie. Cloud cover not looking the best, but not total overcast. Hope it gets better as we close in.

https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/map/2024-april-8 This is a pretty cool map you can see totality times for any point and click location. Thinking of doing the midway between outer edge and centrrline of totality, you still get 2+ minutes, but likely avoid traffic nightmare closer to the centerline. Close to the edge you only get a few seconds so Id probably drive a little further to get more time.

Yeah, it does seem like at least anecdotally I've gotten more damage from random Spring / Summer storms than these situations. Obviously not a reason to pay no mind to conditions later this afternoon though as the ingredients are there. Reading some discussions seems like the big jump in threat is due to expected recovery from this mornings storms. If that fails to materialize then that should put a cap on this, but also the chance it could expand further NE. NWS made mention of a special RAOB balloon as well this afternoon. I won't be mad if this busts though, not interested having any extra outdoor cleanup lol. A major shift has been made to the convective outlook for Tuesday afternoon/evening in collaboration with neighboring WFOs and the Storm Prediction Center. A rare Moderate Risk has been added to eastern OH and Enhanced Risk was added for western PA (including much of Allegheny County PA) for the threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts. What has prompted this adjustment is the potential for recovery in the wake of early-morning showers/storms in eastern OH. As a warm front lifts north towards Erie, a surge of low-lvl moisture will increase CAPE within a highly sheared environment. This combination will favor supercells within the warm sector as a strong low advances into the Ohio River Valley from the west. After 2pm, the joint probability of 40kt of 0-6km shear and 1000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE increases to 80-90% (especially for eastern OH). The probability significantly drops off northeast of Pittsburgh, where models suggest cloud coverage will remain and buoyancy will be limited. The probability of severe storms could increase farther east and north from the current most-likely outlook area if sufficient heating and moisture advance into west-central PA beyond where currently expected. A special RAOB will likely be launched Tuesday afternoon at PIT to get a sense of atmospheric changes in the wake of morning showers. Overall summary: confidence is high that strong wind shear will be available to organize storms. Destabilization in the wake of the morning showers/storms will be the potential limiting factor in storm severity Tuesday afternoon.