RitualOfTheTrout

Looks like the GFS is in scenario 2s camp: The big question then becomes what will happen with a late-week system, of which, ensembles are still highly uncertain. The main driver of uncertainty is the timing and placement of a digging eastern tough. In scenario 1, the trough digs east of the area sometime Thursday thru Saturday. In this scenario, the area would be warmer than ensemble means and less unsettled. In scenario 2, the trough barrels down directly into the area with a strong cold front (favored Friday into Saturday) and potentially bring some rain, winds (approaching advisory criteria, at minimum), and even lake- enhanced snow/rain shower potential into Saturday. In scenario 3, the trough may drop to into the Midwest sometime Friday/Saturday with rain ahead of it, and bring a longer period of cool and windy conditions as the upper low struggles to rejoin the flow into next weekend. If truly maximized, scenario 2 would be the most impactful due to wind gusts risks and lake effect snow potential (2-10% probability for locations to see >= 3" of snow).

They missed on the heaviest axis of rain from Isaisas. Getting hit pretty hard right now. I wasn't expecting much .(5 -.75) for the whole thing. With the downsloping, that usually ends up with my yard getting fringed, but instead in a flood warning.

Not going to lie, this weather has been nice though. Managed to only have the AC or heat on once in like the last 3 weeks. Tomorrow looks like a day to look forward to snow if its rainy all day.

Picture of me waking up from summer hibernation getting ready to track some snow!

Lots of tornado warnings, most of the south of I-70 thus far, but that scattered line heading south east from lake Erie has spawned a couple warnings now too. We may dodge a bullet if things settle down just a little bit as we get past 8pm, but there could still be some severe storms moving through parts of the area and you still can't rule out a tornado.

Yeah. I don't get excited over summer weather. You can't really track severe more than 12 hours out, even if conditions may be favorable its a crap shoot. On another note a tree at my parents was hit by lightening Saturday morning. Tree literally exploded. Its crazy. Picture doesn't do it justice the tree shrapnel all over the yard, and the dirt blown off the roots as the charge followed them out.

Today is the best shot, afterwards ridge shifting back west and wildfire smoke probably put a cap on extreme heat.

That was some heavy rain indeed. I think I missed the worst of it, not complaining, but 4.5 inches in one hour is insane. Looks like another round of potential flooding this afternoon evening again. At least I won't have to water the garden this week.

Tomatoe and Pepper plants will be loving those overnight lows... My AC on the other hand.

Hopefully we have a decent weekend for the 4th, hot summer time temperatures would be acceptable. Certainly looks warm next week. Should be a good week to spend some time in the pool.

Gotta love March. Lol

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 439 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-031-073- 075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-180845- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver- Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock- Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia- 439 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, southwest Pennsylvania, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. The chance for snow showers is forecast to ramp up this afternoon mainly for western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia counties. There is a high probability for getting at least another inch of snow in parts of these areas. Eastern Ohio could see measurable snow from the afternoon showers, however, it is likely to remain under an inch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$ Lupo Special Weather Statement Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 849 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 OHZ040-041-050-PAZ013-014-020>022-029-073-075-WVZ001-002-171600- Carroll-Columbiana-Jefferson OH-Lawrence-Butler-Beaver-Allegheny- Armstrong-Washington-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke- Including the cities of Carrollton, Malvern, East Liverpool, Salem, Columbiana, Steubenville, New Castle, Ellwood City, Butler, Aliquippa, Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Monaca, Pittsburgh Metro Area, Kittanning, Ford City, Washington, Canonsburg, Murrysville, Greensburg, New Kensington, Lower Burrell, Latrobe, Monessen, Uniontown, Weirton, Follansbee, and Wellsburg 849 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 ...SNOW SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITY... Scattered snow showers and localized heavy bands of snow will continue this morning. Visibility could briefly be reduced to a quarter of a mile or less in the heaviest snow, with a quick inch or two of accumulation. Additional snow showers and localized heavy bands will be possible through this afternoon. Use caution if traveling. $$

Its dumping heavy snow here again. Gotta love these March snow events. Might make it over 7 inches.

Borderline snow squall rolling through, wind ripping and moderate to heavy snow.

Dang, 5.2, can they hit 6 if a couple of those snow showers hit over night?