RitualOfTheTrout

Looks interesting on FV3 for sure, NAM seems to want nothing to do with it though right now. Doesn't really develop a wave along the front and things dry out pretty quickly once the front goes through.

18z FV3 looks good for Thursday anafront deal. Looks similar to CMC for next week storm, just further East.

Sure is.. Nice progression, cool to see all 3 pieces phasing in.

Haha I hope so... One never knows in this area though. 00z Euro and 12z FV3 both have a storm too, its just well east, looks like much less phasing involved which if I had to wager on I'd lean that way. I'd love to see what the GEM would have looked like had it phased 12 hours earlier...

That wave running up the front idea is still on the table for later this week. Those are notoriously hard to nail down though but maybe a 1-3 2-4 type deal if it lines up just right.

Wow.. totally animated gif worthy just based on that track... I'd role the dice on that irregardless of what it shows for snow totals.

Can you imagine the damage if you got moderate rain falling at 4 degrees..

When the sleet hit this morning it was crazy quick from an onslaught against the windows to periods of heavy snow.. It was cool to see but left me wondering what if... Onto the next threat I guess. Hard to gauge how much due to the wind but looks like 2-3 inches.

Heavy sleet just changed to snow.. Now it's a race to see if we can get an inch or 2..

Ah... To think it was almost us...

Maybe Mike Bettis standing in front of a snow machine?! Lol He did nothing to help his credibility in that Hurricane in NC this year struggling to stand while 2 guys in shorts casually walked through a parking lot in the background.

One thing I did not see was the delay in precipitation. I figured rain or snow would be falling by now. Short of a brief light snow / sleet mix earlier this morning its been dry. That does make the "additional" sound like somebody actually got some snow to this point.

I think NWS did a good job highlighting the fact it was a low confidence forecast while warning of what could happen. The discussion mentioned multiple times the uncertainty in the northward pace of the warm air and how this would drastically effect sensible weather. I think given the information available at the time they made the right calls. The average person just saw the map and the big numbers and went with that. You rarely see large forecast changes right before an event and I'd assume they will slowly tweak accumulations downward. I agree the media rarely does the right type of reporting for these storms, it's more about hype and ratings and the stores go right along with it hyping sales for groceries, salt, and generators.

Nice map.

As if we needed any more confirmation this isn't happening the Euro. I think our best hope now is an over performing backend once the cold gets pulled in. Maybe we can grab a quick 1-2 so the ground isn't bare for the arctic blast..