RitualOfTheTrout

Looks like our first shot at some flakes Saturday night. This trough is progged to cross our region later Sat afternoon/night with rain showers expected. The rain should mix with and change to snow in cold advection after FROPA. Some lake and terrain enhancement is expected in NW flow, and some minor accumulation is possible N of I 80. A better chance of accumulation is expected especially in the higher terrain of WV and MD, though the best moisture is progged below the dendritic growth layer. This should keep potential snowfall rates limited.

Dang... Jalapeno and Banana Pepper plants are still going strong, living on borrowed time though.

Agree, still running the AC.. The warm high dew point nights are really what do me in. I could live with it being warmer during the day if we dropped into low 50s at night.

This time of year is our second peak for severe but I agree, if it's warmer and especially more moisture in the atmosphere as the cold fronts crash into it we may see more "falls" with this kind of weather.

Some pictures I saw around twitter / web of the storms yesterday: TownvillePA_Tornado_small.mp4 Anyways, looks like little chance of sustained fall weather on the horizon.. Seems these "anomalous" ridges are becoming more common place. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... The extended forecast will be predicated on the position and strength of the anomalous 500h ridge that is expected to blossom over the eastern US. Ensembles are coming into better agreement now showing the ridge amplifying Saturday and Sunday and sitting directly over the Carolinas. This will not only increase the temperatures across the region, but this very strong subsidence should be able to provide an extended dry period beginning Sunday and continuing through the remainder of the long term. Temperature will remain above seasonal average into next week. Consistency among models in an anomalously-strong upper ridge in the Mid-Atlantic region has increased for early next week, which suggests maxima could reach well into the 80s. In fact, sounding climatology suggests that H5 height at Pittsburgh could near record values.

Crazy weather evening... Wasn't really expecting this type of activity.

Haha wow.. it looks bad on the NAM, id bet its not the best tool to use for this case.. looks like one of the maps from that movie "Day After Tomorrow"

Luckily wind won't be much of a factor I don't think. Hopefully most of the runoff has worked it's way out of here by Monday night next week so flooding would be minimal from another 2in, but the ground will be pretty saturated so could see another round of mud slides, also, if it tracks a little closer we end up closer to 3-4 inches which would be troublesome for sure.

That stall and SW slide down the coast is just crazy... Storm surge coupled with all the rain and wind for 42+ hours is just really unprecedented. Starting to wonder what's going to be left standing... Our family vacations in Topsail frequently.. thinking it may be awhile before we get back after this one.

Yeah, barring a total surprise in track change they don't stand a chance. NHC track basically landfall on TS right now. Hopefully the rest of the island holds up.

It's been more of a gradual process with previous storms slowly eroding the beach away. Those sandbags were there long before Florence, more of an attempt to stave off the inevitable..

Where are these pictures from, North Topsail?

Wow.. NWS says another 1-2 possible. It's been pretty light the last hour or so but more headed this way. You could make a run at 8 inches.

Hopefully we get a day like this in winter only white not wet.

00z spaghetti model. These have the recon data. If you are looking for effects here I think the dramatic reduction of speed will limit even if it took a good track. Look how little it moves from HR 120 to 144 VS earlier. Verbatim as modeled now a huge disaster for NC.