Rd9108

NAM has possible wrap around snow this weekend. Won't be a lot but I wouldnt be surprised if we get an inch from it. Something to watch and maybe we can eek out 2 inches and call it a win.

Well even central PA is looking worse and worse. That primary just has no reason to die and transfer fast without a cold high blocking its path. Of course as DJ mentioned we have a Miller A in the beginning of February but again no sign of cold air we are relying on the storm dynamics at that point.

Well gfs didnt change much but the primary didn't get as far north atleast, but it was still too late. If this thing gets to our latitude before transfer it will not snow.

Agreed and the UK, GEFS, EURO, and GFS all agree. We need some major changes with the primary or else its gonna be the same thing as last time. I always laugh when people cry about getting screwed on snow. They have no idea what it means getting screwed.

The consensus at this range is pretty unfortunate. Every model shows our area as the screw area.

GEFS now suck balls for our area. Not a single good hit. This is looking like a miss unless we can get some positive trends.

Most local Mets always err on the side of caution. As the date approaches they adjust the forecast. Don't get discouraged by Smiley forecasting an inch. We are still a few days away. Bernie Rayno always mentions the windshield wiper effect. Models move the solutions and then correct back and then sometimes overcorrect. What we see today might not necessarily be the final solution.

Good sign this far out. One huge thing we have going for us is peak climo. We don't need an impressive airness to snow.

Only one of my favorite storms. Jan 94, the rates in that storm were apparently pretty insane. I'll take a 5 hour thump of 1-3 inch per hour over a long duration storm with maybe an inch per hour rates.

Majority of the euro ensembles look great. Only 28 runs to go.

Good to have some.guidance show some possibility, but I don't like that the air mass is so marginal. That primary has to die somewhat fast or its gonna be more wet than white.

Gfs ensembles looked better at 12z. Long way away though.

12z looks awful for us. I have zero expectations for this threat. The evolution just looks too much like a miss for us. Sums up our area quite well.

Warm tongue showing up on the ensembles=death for us. Once it shows up it never goes away. That was the 6z ensembles so let's see what the 12z does today.

Looks right to me.