Amped
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About Amped
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No I just thought the monkey was a traffic light
- Birthday April 5
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The outflow and core look impressive for a storm at this latitude.
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GFS has a similar outer band forming, but it isn't supposed to happen for another 30 hrs.
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Epsilon weakened a lot last night, but has made a very quick comeback the last 3 hrs. Eye is back out and T numbers are back up to 4.6. The west side of the storm looks healthy again.
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Euro is similar. It backs into Iceland as a 940mb low in the next few frames.
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2020 can be added to the list now, Aug-26th - Oct21st Laura, Teddy, Delta , Epsilon. A very good season, but the alphabet record was padded with namewaster storms.
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NHC issues a special 2pm advisory 958mb 110mph Florence November 1994 is the closes analog. It didn't deepen as fast but reached a similar intensity and took a similar track. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Florence_(1994)
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Going to need some post season reanalysis on this. It was probably at least 10mb deeper than analyzed at 18z yesterday. However ADT numbers have not change much since 2am. Most of the Deepening probably occurred yesterday
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So looks like all models the NHC and the ADT were way under on the intensity. Almost a Cat 3
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992mb 55kt? It's got a warm core with a cold core wrapped around it and an eye. I'd have guessed it's somewhere near 980mb and 75kt.
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As for what prevented the Caribbean storm from forming, Looks like it was the stupid 500mb low over Florida. It appears at around the same time the GFS lost the storm.
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Yeah it's a little perplexing. GFS was also too weak with Episilon, and had trouble handling the phase. It was it splitting it into 2 lows for a while.
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The GFS blew chunks with both storms
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Looks a lot like the output from the Euro 2 weeks ago. Just a giant elongated wind field. Euro keeps showing a 2nd system trying to form in the western gulf. Although no other model is showing second low pressure in the GOM, all of them have lower pressures there than the GFS.
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Donna was almost ideal for a FL to ME hit.
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GFS digs the southern stream a lot more this run. End result, a TC phasing with a bomb cyclone. You better hope that thing stays offshore, 250 miles west and it's hurricane force winds along almost the entire east coast.
