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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Our best shot in this pattern. Without a -NAO and a 50/50 low none of the day 3-10 HECS that appear on models are going to verify. Looks more like a -epo polar vortex pattern like 2013/2014. We had plenty of day 3-10 HECS show up on models and not verify that winter also.
  2. We all know the timing is just as wrong this run as it was last run. The difference between the GFS accuracy at 222hrs and 216hrs is negligible.
  3. This is either going to be a really big bust for the Gfs or Euro.
  4. This is one of the more complex setups we've seen in the 2-4 day timeframe. Northern end of the wave is splitting off and the southern end is phasing, not to mention a few other disturbances coming in behind it. I could see wild swings in models up until the final 24hrs kind of like 12/26/10.
  5. The surface low and the 500mb low are 800 miles apart on some models. The precip moves in lockstep with the baroclinic zone at this point. Even better if the baroclinic zone is further north In AL/MS so the low gets cranking earlier.
  6. Icon and RGEM keep us in the game at least. The GFS is
  7. Not bad at 500mb. I'll take that look and assume they'll be precip further northwest.
  8. Agreed looking at the 18z Euro 72, there is no reason to believe it would be drastically different with the storm than 12z.
  9. Euro is an outlier with both the northern and southern streams. Even if it turns out correct I don't think anyone should be taking it's solution literally yet. We're going to need perfect timing to get a HECS in this chaotic pattern.
  10. Only need to get the southern stream 500 miles further east and the northern stream 500 miles west for it to look like the Euro.
  11. Trend on CMC since showing the HECS, A lot less phasing now. However with the 500mb low tracking over us, there is still a good chance for an over-performing high ratio event kind of like 1/30/10.
  12. Way better than the GFS, which has an ugly gap between the northern and southern streams. RGEM should at least phase half of it.
  13. Just flipped to mostly sleet in downtown columbia.
  14. Still got mostly snow, mixing line just to the south.
  15. Heaviest snow of the storm. Got maybe another 30 minutes here in columbia before the mixing line gets in.
  16. Keeps it south of us but keeps us in the game. Exactly where we want to see it the next 3 days..
  17. CMC looks very similar to the January 1978 KU storm. https://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1978&mm=01&dd=20&run=06
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