Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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The hafs did show that ring signature though.
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Another hour maybe to get to the center.
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Even NHC mentioned the ADT constraints this time in the discussion. There have been 6 hours if Raw T numbers over 6 now with a current reading of 6.8.
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30mb pressure drop since the last advisory. That could be conservative for all we know.
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The eye has improved a lot in the last hour, kind of reminds me of Dorian undergoing RI. They could probably skip cat 3 on the next advisory and go straight to 4.
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Seems Idiala had a much harder time clearing out the eye.
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The Hurricane models show it strengthening very little until tomorrow afternoon when convection wraps around the north side, then it's bombs away, especially overnight tomorrow.
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Charlie and Ida kept deepening until landfall despite having concentric eyewalls. This outer eyewall seems to be providing a stable feeder band to the inner eyewall at the moment, helping maintain organization if anything.
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The eye does appear to be a little small given the size of the CDO. This usually indicates that there will be an ERC at some point. Only about 8 to 10 hrs before landfall though.
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Starting to think that my 125kt 940mb landfall prediction from this morning might end up being too conservative.
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There was almost a 100% of it intensifying a lot over the next 6 hrs. Easy call by NHC to stay ahead of it.
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The eyewall has improved quite a bit. There will probably be a decent wind increase in the next pass through the eastern portion of the eye.
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~975mb seems to be a a common spot where RI starts. Happened with Micheal, IDA, Laura, Dorian and too many other for me to list.
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Hurricane Ida had a similar pressure 24 hrs from landfall and it easily made Cat4.
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HAFS A now 933mb 131kts at landfall, at landfall close to a cat 5
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Latest image 12:10 EDT
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The CMC has more ridging off the SE coast and doesn't dig the troff in the NE nearly as much. I understand why it shifted west of it's 12z run. The GFS on the other hand, just randomly decided to take it west of 18z for no apparent reason
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The center may have wobbled or reformed a little to the southeast judging by both radar and recon obs.
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Appears like a possible definitive center is trying to form near the western tip of Cuba on radar.
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For once the ADT underestimated something. Impressive storm.
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The GEFS trended south, lots of members are supporting tracks similar to the Euro, UKMET and CMC
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GFS is been too aggressive deepening most TCs in the last couple years. I'm not discounting it given the SSTs
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The Euro is showing a rapid pressure fall right before landfall. This happened with TS Gabriel in 2001, the pressure spiked right before landfall, winds didn't quite have time to catch up.
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Interesting to note that all the hurricane models blow this up to a Cat 3/4.
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This is a large circulation driving and atmospheric river into the southwest. Large rain totals are inevitable even if the core of the storm falls apart faster than modeled.. A similar thing happened with Hurricane Irene in 2011, and there was still major flooding across the northeast.
