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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    The heavy band in SW CT will likely become a death band once it gets into a spot cold enough for snow. Edit: This matches the NAM and FV3 hires pretty well. RGEM and HRRR maybe moving it east to quickly. Looks determined to push NW at the moment.
  2. Amped
    Hurricane season starts early and ends late on the 3k NAM
  3. Amped
    That's some really poor agreement on a 24hr forecast.
  4. Amped
    Fairly obvious melting layer showing up on CC.
  5. Amped
    Both the GFS and NAM now have the low doing a complete lap around the Mass coast.
  6. Amped
    The extra hour of sunlight isn't helpful unless if the frigging sun doesn't come out in the first place
  7. Amped
    GFS like 150 miles different than 18z with the low placement at 36hrs. Not your typical swing. Luckily most of it is along track and doesn't effect amounts as much as you'd think.
  8. Amped
    I'm starting to have high confidence the lower elevations of CT will see very little if any accumulation. It's eastern mass that's uncertain with whatever meso-bomb goes off when the low stalls over the CAPE and pivots enough to get the flow out of the northeast.
  9. Amped
    This should be a rather helpful guide.
  10. Amped
    Gfs went back to its 00z solution almost exactly
  11. Amped
    Precip maps have over 4" liquid in south central CT.
  12. Amped
    GFS and ICON elongate the low, CMC overdeepens it. RGEM, NAM and JMA actually look the least weird so far LOL. Edit: I'm going with the RGEM Kuchara map since it's doing the least amount of funny stuff and matches well with the average model run over the last few days.
  13. Amped
    GFS is ais the worst convective feedback disaster so far.
  14. Amped
    Normally I hate happy hour GFS runs but I am interested to see if the GFS continues the trend of tracking the closed H5 low further south.
  15. Amped
    Already seeing way too many maps on social media with widespread double digit totals being posted. Given the warm surface and track uncertainty, this is asking for trouble.
  16. Amped
    The wierd thing about this setup is that the solutions that have the southern stream more suppressed end up warmer, with a second northern stream low forming over long island and tracking further northwest, like the ICON. You need a strong southern stream surface low in just the right spot to faceplant northern stream as it's trying to form.
  17. Amped
    This setup is so complex it has the Euro looking like the NAM.
  18. Amped
    EC hasn't changed much from 18z at 72hrs. Maybe a tick slower.
  19. Amped
    After all these years the NAM 84 is still acts like the NAM 84 and people still talk about it.
  20. Amped
    CMC has feedback errors in these types of situations. It did this in the blizzard of 2015. It's 20mb deeper than the GFS at hr 96
  21. Amped
    And with that the NAM has become the first model to dig the ULL into MD.
  22. Amped
  23. Amped
    And progressive track not off the table either.
  24. Amped
    That's some great meteorological gymnastics.
  25. Amped
    Euro day 10 looks good. The March 18th snowstorm call I made should at least start by the end of the day.
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