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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. I think they are exaggerating totals a bit because its a high impact event with temps well below freezing and a lot of precip.
  2. The dry patch is my concern more than the temps. The bust scenario is we get weak sauce before the changeover.
  3. Euro front band is nuts for you guys. It moves through quickly but its 3"/hr min over those 2 hours.
  4. Apple Weather is like if Joe Bastardi were a weather app.
  5. The good thing about this storm is its moving in a strait line which means it should be a very extrapolatable setup. If its warmer/colder aloft than expected over the ms valley, its a pretty safe bet the same thing will happen downstream.
  6. Rgem still has like 8 before the changeover.
  7. Ecmwf, Rgem and even the Nam usually handle warm air aloft better than the GFS.
  8. All models have a gulf coast disturbance and a cold high. If it phases the sky is the limit. Or maybe it just goes ots like last year.
  9. The gfs is may blow chunks on this storm, but its gonna make up for it by nailing the 2/1 colossal east coast blizzard.
  10. It would seem, with all the computing power availible out there today they could make a snowfall algorithm that actually works. Instead we have 10:1 maps and Kuchara maps. 10:1 Maps: Heavy sleet for a few hours, you get a foot of snow. Kuchara Maps: 0.12" qpf with a temp of 6F, 100:1 ratios, you get a foot of snow. Both algorithms clearly are going to exagerate totals in this case. There could and should be something better.
  11. Not liking this trend. Its shifted the jackpot substantial amount northwest since 12z yesterday, a couple more shifts were mostly ice.
  12. Wouldn't really say that. Kind of a hold the line for now run.
  13. Gfs brewing something big down south at 216.
  14. Just got an alert on my phone for a winter storm watch.
  15. Huge snow swath. Starts right on the continental divide in New Mexico and goes all the way past eastern Maine
  16. Cmc is my least favorite run so far. Ukmet and icon mix but at least they get a coastal transfer started early and track it well offshore. Cmc has the coastal too far west and not helping us.
  17. I actually like this Icon run. The dryslot and the changeover hit at the same time north of I95, which means we dont waste a lot of heavy precip.
  18. The media is not picking up my storm name so I used AI to make a graphic for it.
  19. There is warm air all the way up to 700mb so the sleet line could be well north of there.
  20. Great gfs run. Too bad its the outlier and its probably wrong.
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