Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Shear is really cranking now. You can see it on IR and the S eyewall is open on radar. -
10 or 15 miles will make a big difference in the outcome for Kingston. 18z tracks are pretty close to a direct hit.
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Yeah probably comes off Jamaica a cat 1 or strong TS. Hurricane models showing a pretty messy structure near the Yucatan.
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The shear is patiently holding off until 3 minutes after the upgrade. Edit: It's official now, 160mph at 11pm
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Seems to be doing a very good job of that so far. Wouldn't know there's any issues on the west side of the storm from the IR presentation.
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The appearance has been steady for the 5 hrs or so. Maybe the next pass will be more conclusive.
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It is dropping out intermittently might have missed the max.
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Latest recon pass is nuts. Hope that's an error.
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Didn't think there was going to be an ERC today, dry air is inhibiting the ability of the core to expand at this time, and the core usually expands prior to an ERC.
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The ADT numbers have leveled off the last few hour,s so the intensification may have plateaued for now. Hurricane models did show some brief dry air intrusions over the course of the day.
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The islands are difficult to chase because you can't reposition without getting a boat or plane. The Yucatan is more chasable.
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Insane, stronger than any of last nights hurricane models.
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Its even ahead schedule for my bullish call from last night. Going to break the June record by mid afternoon at this pace.
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HAFS-B has 128kt 953mb peak at 09z Monday. That wind maybe a little high given the pressure. HMON is 953mb 117kt at 06z Monday.
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So far so good, you got this Beryl, it's all yours, just keep it the pace.
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The June record for a basin hurricane is 946mb 125mph. Beryl has 25 hrs and 55 minutes left.
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Gonna extrapolate that to 600kts.
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Crappy night. Not even going to make the forecasted 75 low
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A couple cells forming now in Frederick and northern Carroll counties.
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Rain just lifted In downtown columbia. No tornado or damage visible from my window.
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Headed for me or just south. Visibility to low to see anything.
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Models showing quite a bit of rain across Central Florida in the 6-10 day time frame.
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Setup trended less favorable as we got closer. More progressive troff weaker low and multiple waves. Wondering if we'll even see anymore rain.
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I haven't been looking at weather maps for a while. I am impressed with modays setup.
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Loud clap of thunder in Columbia.
