Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Eps trended north, has a lot of members near Houston although the mean is south of Houston. Also plenty of members show it racing from TX up to OH like the Icon indicating the troff scooped it up. -
Dropsonde 998mb, it took a pretty big hit.
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The 18z GFS shows a westerly jog in the track between 36 and 42hrs and again between 54 and 60hrs. Both of these look suspect, there should be a steady NW track with a gradual turn toward the north.
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One more thing I like about the Icon (Just a hunch) is it's handling of Beryls interacting with the troff post landfall. Every other model is ripping Beryl apart over TX/AR and leaving some of the energy behind. Icon is showing a quicker recurve and a full capture. Usually that's what happens with deeper troffs, recurve is faster than modeled and no energy left behind.
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Isadore also had a lot less time to reorganize. It moved rather quickly Beryl may not resume intensification until tomorrow night and still have time to make Cat2 before landfall at 6z Monday.
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Icon not backing down from 12z. Earlier landfall in almost the same location with a slightly lower pressure.
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Already northeast of the forecast.
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Also, the Euro is 20mb deeper than the gfs at 24hrs.
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Hurricane models are showing it takes at least 48hrs before any signifigant deepening resumes. How strong it gets may depend on how long it avoids landfall. Most likely it gets back to a cat1 or cat2.
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Beryl has produced 27.7 ACE so far. Amazing for a July storm. Will probably top 30 when all is said and done. https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic
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Shear is really cranking now. You can see it on IR and the S eyewall is open on radar.
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10 or 15 miles will make a big difference in the outcome for Kingston. 18z tracks are pretty close to a direct hit.
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Yeah probably comes off Jamaica a cat 1 or strong TS. Hurricane models showing a pretty messy structure near the Yucatan.
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The shear is patiently holding off until 3 minutes after the upgrade. Edit: It's official now, 160mph at 11pm
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Seems to be doing a very good job of that so far. Wouldn't know there's any issues on the west side of the storm from the IR presentation.
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The appearance has been steady for the 5 hrs or so. Maybe the next pass will be more conclusive.
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It is dropping out intermittently might have missed the max.
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Latest recon pass is nuts. Hope that's an error.
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Didn't think there was going to be an ERC today, dry air is inhibiting the ability of the core to expand at this time, and the core usually expands prior to an ERC.
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The ADT numbers have leveled off the last few hour,s so the intensification may have plateaued for now. Hurricane models did show some brief dry air intrusions over the course of the day.
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The islands are difficult to chase because you can't reposition without getting a boat or plane. The Yucatan is more chasable.
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Insane, stronger than any of last nights hurricane models.
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Its even ahead schedule for my bullish call from last night. Going to break the June record by mid afternoon at this pace.
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HAFS-B has 128kt 953mb peak at 09z Monday. That wind maybe a little high given the pressure. HMON is 953mb 117kt at 06z Monday.
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So far so good, you got this Beryl, it's all yours, just keep it the pace.
