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Amped

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  1. Amped
    UKMET is the northeast outlier for the first time ever.
  2. Amped
    Bizarre complex track shown by the GFS and CMC. The troff lifts out and the 250mb flow shifts to the NW due to the ridge over the Central US. Then a tutt forms over FL while a ridge builds over the Carolinas, shifting 250mb winds back to the ESE forcing forcing the storm back to the west. Almost a 180 degree shift in the 250mb winds between hr 60 and 102
  3. Amped
    Hurricane Ian made a turn into the SC coast but it wasn't as sharp. I suspect this turn is being overdone by models and it ends up over E NC day 5.
  4. Amped
    Kind of a broad circulation and there will be some shear in the northern Gulf. It's hitting a pretty storm surge prone area though. Luckily not very populated.
  5. Amped
    Lightning fest
  6. Amped
    Going to feel like fall tomorrow when it's 95.
  7. Amped
    Feels like hell out there
  8. Amped
    Duck and cover!
  9. Amped
    Radar in upstate NY is nuts. Looks like something you'd see in TX or OK
  10. Amped
    Lots of Tornado warnings in central NY and Nrn Pa
  11. Amped
    I did think it was moving faster for some reason. Anyway the winds didn't make it too far inland. Looks likes they've died down considerably.
  12. Amped
    Seems to always happen with fast moving systems. IKE produced lots of 70mph+ gusts in PA and OH
  13. Amped
    You can see the low and mid level centers are still slightly out of alignment on radar.
  14. Amped
    The predictable apology run from the GFS for insisting the troff was going leave Beryl behind for the last 3 days.
  15. Amped
    The gfs moved way east. Not a direct hit on Houston but they'll get a much more impact than the 18z run.
  16. Amped
    There's also frictional convergence near the coast helping to funnel moister and angular momentum inward. Another enhancing factor is it will be moving into the right entrance region of a jet streak developing in the MS Valley. These things should combine for a quick burst of intensification prior to landfall.
  17. Amped
    Euro finally out and it landfalls near Port O'conner. Its on the northeast edge of guidance.
  18. Amped
    Pretty much following the HAFS-B which shows very little deepening today and makes landfall in central tx as a 973mb 85kt cat2 at 12z Monday.
  19. Amped
    Models continue to show the best deepening rates just prior to landfall. Some of them bottom out the pressure right along the coast.
  20. Amped
    GEFS trended SW and weaker
  21. Amped
    Eps trended north, has a lot of members near Houston although the mean is south of Houston. Also plenty of members show it racing from TX up to OH like the Icon indicating the troff scooped it up.
  22. Amped
    Dropsonde 998mb, it took a pretty big hit.
  23. Amped
    The 18z GFS shows a westerly jog in the track between 36 and 42hrs and again between 54 and 60hrs. Both of these look suspect, there should be a steady NW track with a gradual turn toward the north.
  24. Amped
    One more thing I like about the Icon (Just a hunch) is it's handling of Beryls interacting with the troff post landfall. Every other model is ripping Beryl apart over TX/AR and leaving some of the energy behind. Icon is showing a quicker recurve and a full capture. Usually that's what happens with deeper troffs, recurve is faster than modeled and no energy left behind.
  25. Amped
    Isadore also had a lot less time to reorganize. It moved rather quickly Beryl may not resume intensification until tomorrow night and still have time to make Cat2 before landfall at 6z Monday.
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