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Amped

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  1. Amped
    Looks more like a center reform. The bands have become elongated too.
  2. Amped
    Or two centers wobbling around each other. The HAFS-B showed this.
  3. Amped
    It's trying to drift back to the west the last few frames.
  4. Amped
    So much for all the RI talk
  5. Amped
    Results in a much stronger landfall. Edit: Actually only slightly stronger. But further offshore track should in theory give it a lot more time to reorganize.
  6. Amped
    UKMET is the northeast outlier for the first time ever.
  7. Amped
    Bizarre complex track shown by the GFS and CMC. The troff lifts out and the 250mb flow shifts to the NW due to the ridge over the Central US. Then a tutt forms over FL while a ridge builds over the Carolinas, shifting 250mb winds back to the ESE forcing forcing the storm back to the west. Almost a 180 degree shift in the 250mb winds between hr 60 and 102
  8. Amped
    Hurricane Ian made a turn into the SC coast but it wasn't as sharp. I suspect this turn is being overdone by models and it ends up over E NC day 5.
  9. Amped
    Kind of a broad circulation and there will be some shear in the northern Gulf. It's hitting a pretty storm surge prone area though. Luckily not very populated.
  10. Amped
    Lightning fest
  11. Amped
    Going to feel like fall tomorrow when it's 95.
  12. Amped
    Feels like hell out there
  13. Amped
    Duck and cover!
  14. Amped
    Radar in upstate NY is nuts. Looks like something you'd see in TX or OK
  15. Amped
    Lots of Tornado warnings in central NY and Nrn Pa
  16. Amped
    I did think it was moving faster for some reason. Anyway the winds didn't make it too far inland. Looks likes they've died down considerably.
  17. Amped
    Seems to always happen with fast moving systems. IKE produced lots of 70mph+ gusts in PA and OH
  18. Amped
    You can see the low and mid level centers are still slightly out of alignment on radar.
  19. Amped
    The predictable apology run from the GFS for insisting the troff was going leave Beryl behind for the last 3 days.
  20. Amped
    The gfs moved way east. Not a direct hit on Houston but they'll get a much more impact than the 18z run.
  21. Amped
    There's also frictional convergence near the coast helping to funnel moister and angular momentum inward. Another enhancing factor is it will be moving into the right entrance region of a jet streak developing in the MS Valley. These things should combine for a quick burst of intensification prior to landfall.
  22. Amped
    Euro finally out and it landfalls near Port O'conner. Its on the northeast edge of guidance.
  23. Amped
    Pretty much following the HAFS-B which shows very little deepening today and makes landfall in central tx as a 973mb 85kt cat2 at 12z Monday.
  24. Amped
    Models continue to show the best deepening rates just prior to landfall. Some of them bottom out the pressure right along the coast.
  25. Amped
    GEFS trended SW and weaker
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