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About baltosquid

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  1. Depressing that the only "saving grace" at this point is the CFS, and that's not until March so... ouch.
  2. It's hard to be excited about the GFS being close (but further than it was at 06z) while the ECMWF is 300 miles too far north. Still 5+ days out but with precious little ensemble support, oof.
  3. A small handful of the upside solutions on the 00z ens runs for the euro were pretty powerful. It’s definitely a good sign that 12z is trending to a stronger shortwave when coupled with that BUT at 5 days out let’s not forget what happened to that thump we were tracking a few weeks ago from 5 days out...
  4. Icon looks decent, pretty much all snow for Baltimore but rates are not terribly impressive. Still, considering how reluctant the Icon is to show anything good for us I’m cautiously optimistic. Very scientific, I know!
  5. I am ready to get hurt again. Edit: My bet is on gradual deterioration into a frontal look by the start of the week that allegedly should give us rain to snow, but the snow doesn’t really materialize. That’s a classic setup here, right?
  6. Hey guys, I think I see our problem. I’ve been keeping my Christmas decorations up in hopes of getting snow while still having a bit of the holiday aesthetic around, but clearly it’s just cursing us. They’re coming down tonight; expect a foot next weekend!
  7. Been watching this, certainly not the quality look we were getting earlier in the week but things have been trending flatter/more flow up front pretty consistently. Here's the euro and nam over the past 48 hours.
  8. Once again there’s a post-mix/sleet/ice period of snow for an hour or two on the euro for 12z, a bit better/wider area looking than 06z. So I guess mid levels are getting better temps there as the storm passes through. Give me trends that way the rest of the day please, only needs to get a bit better to get I95 in central/NE MD a short second bit of snow.
  9. Yeah, far cry from what we saw at the beginning of the week but the precip gets a bit more out front and covers the region more fully. Still mostly not snow but better than nothing. Also, 06z Euro showed a brief transition back to snow for NW MD after the mix/sleet/freezing precipitation. Maybe if we can get cold enough we can trend more that way and recover some more snowfall from the other precip types later on in the event. Probably won’t help in Baltimore but there aren’t many other things giving me hope!
  10. It’s more reasonable on the snow depth change map. About 1-3 inches. 10-1 has a lot of other freezing precipitation included so it looks nuts. Still an optimistic look, though.
  11. FWIW I think last week’s event looked to be trending pretty terribly at around this many hours out but had a bit of a recovery getting closer. Or maybe (probably) I’m just grasping at straws. What I wouldn’t give for a storm that gets trumpeted by the euro first, then collects the other models, rather than the other way around....
  12. Snowfall looked nice all throughout with some heavier looking flakes just in the past half hour but it's had a lot of trouble accumulating around Patterson Park. Seems nearly finished, flakes are getting smaller again. Wish there'd been enough to at least clean cover the grass and give the trees some white branches but it was nice to at least watch it fall. Half an inch probably.
  13. Snowing pretty good in Upper Fells by Patterson Park. Transitioned about 15-20 minutes ago. Grass is starting to go white in spots; hopefully we can crack an inch on some of the easier surfaces.
  14. 12z GFS trending well I think... not as much warm air around to ruin things, cold air penetrating deeper. Storm track getting there. Not a hit yet but surprisingly encouraging.