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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Gfs is pure hurricane porn. Slow wnw track, just keeps getting bigger and stronger as it moves towards the Yucatan.
  2. Not an immediate threat. Any development will not occur until the weekend in the central Caribbean like some EPS and GEFS members are showing.
  3. Icon is trying to develop something at 120hrs in the S central Caribbean. This is close to what the EPS members had. If 90L develops it will be this weekend or early next week after it gets past the ULL.
  4. Ian certainly had the capacity to kill hundreds if they didn't evacuate. Keep in mind there are a lot of elderly in the Ft Myers area plenty with limited physical capability or special medication needs.
  5. I'd feel much better about it's long term prospects if it didn't have the ULL to survive. It will likely reverse most of the organization that occurs in the next 36hrs.
  6. In Maria and Katrina a lot of deaths occurred in the humanitarian crisis after the storm. something to keep in mind.
  7. The CMC is the first to show a real storm. CMC was overdone on the westward movement of Ian and Fiona, that maybe what allows it to escape the ULL on this run.
  8. Just hope it will be over by Thursday day 6 of this mess.
  9. Ian was 47TJ while Charley was only 7TJ. Also Ian was moving at about 8mph while Charley was moving close to 20. That combined with size made a big difference in storm duration. https://www.rms.com/blog/2018/10/19/comparing-major-hurricane-michael-to-recent-gulf-hurricanes-using-integrated-kinetic-energy
  10. Frontal zone over the plains. There's a 20 degree temp difference.
  11. Matches with the models having a coastal plane wind hole.
  12. Not looking tropical anymore. I might have guessed this was from 1/24/2000 if it was shown to me with no date.
  13. That is strange almost looks like a tornado but it's not 3 dimensional.
  14. This thing never quits. Can't imagine the horror stories we'll hear in the coming days of people clinging to a tree for 10 hrs.
  15. So the backside was stronger with less videos from it?
  16. Only about a 1.25ft difference between high and low
  17. Looks like a storm weakening over land and not at all due to wind shear. I'm guessing the stationary front over NE FL has something to do with it's shear resistance since it's an unusual feature.
  18. And winds aren't even out of the NW yet
  19. I'd much rather be a person in NJ who didn't evacuate for sandy than a person in Ft Myers that didn't evacuate for Ian. They're probably dropping like flys as we speak.
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