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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    The CMC has more ridging off the SE coast and doesn't dig the troff in the NE nearly as much. I understand why it shifted west of it's 12z run. The GFS on the other hand, just randomly decided to take it west of 18z for no apparent reason
  2. Amped
    The center may have wobbled or reformed a little to the southeast judging by both radar and recon obs.
  3. Amped
    Appears like a possible definitive center is trying to form near the western tip of Cuba on radar.
  4. Amped
    For once the ADT underestimated something. Impressive storm.
  5. Amped
    The GEFS trended south, lots of members are supporting tracks similar to the Euro, UKMET and CMC
  6. Amped
    GFS is been too aggressive deepening most TCs in the last couple years. I'm not discounting it given the SSTs
  7. Amped
    The Euro is showing a rapid pressure fall right before landfall. This happened with TS Gabriel in 2001, the pressure spiked right before landfall, winds didn't quite have time to catch up.
  8. Amped
    Interesting to note that all the hurricane models blow this up to a Cat 3/4.
  9. Amped
    This is a large circulation driving and atmospheric river into the southwest. Large rain totals are inevitable even if the core of the storm falls apart faster than modeled.. A similar thing happened with Hurricane Irene in 2011, and there was still major flooding across the northeast.
  10. Amped
    The eye just cleared out again. My guess is recon finds pressure in the 935mb-940mb range. Should be able to hold on with cooler waters for another 12-18hrs given the extent of the moisture.
  11. Amped
    Raw T is now up to 6.7. Still one crappy shower left in the eye that needs to clear out.
  12. Amped
    Organizing quickly over the last few hours. You can see a solid cdo ring now and the eye trying to clear
  13. Amped
    GFS brings a 989mb low pretty close to LA and SD. 5-7" of rain, 50-60mph winds.
  14. Amped
    Radar looks Nasty. 60-70kt velocities shooting up I95 from Wilmington. Does anyone post on this forum anymore?
  15. Amped
    Looks like Wilmington and Philly will get hit worse than most of us did.
  16. Amped
    Raining in downtown Columbia with some wind. The bow moving through moco is aimed right at us.
  17. Amped
    The w moco segment looks like it's trying to bow also
  18. Amped
    I think it's even a bit ahead of schedule. That segment is coming down 70 and 270 pretty fast.
  19. Amped
    Line is trying to bow west of frederick.
  20. Amped
    The sun's not even really out
  21. Amped
    The current cells aren't moving very fast. I suspect that will keep the tor threat rather localized for now.
  22. Amped
    Best chance for discrete cells will be in northwestern areas when the storms first develop. It will probably merge into some sort of an MCS by the time it gets to I95 leading to more of a widespread wind threat.
  23. Amped
    This wasn't supposed to happen for like another 20-30 years.
  24. Amped
    Still a ton of lightning.
  25. Amped
    The rotation sig went right over me, there wasn't much wind.
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