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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. The GEFS trended south, lots of members are supporting tracks similar to the Euro, UKMET and CMC
  2. GFS is been too aggressive deepening most TCs in the last couple years. I'm not discounting it given the SSTs
  3. The Euro is showing a rapid pressure fall right before landfall. This happened with TS Gabriel in 2001, the pressure spiked right before landfall, winds didn't quite have time to catch up.
  4. Interesting to note that all the hurricane models blow this up to a Cat 3/4.
  5. This is a large circulation driving and atmospheric river into the southwest. Large rain totals are inevitable even if the core of the storm falls apart faster than modeled.. A similar thing happened with Hurricane Irene in 2011, and there was still major flooding across the northeast.
  6. The eye just cleared out again. My guess is recon finds pressure in the 935mb-940mb range. Should be able to hold on with cooler waters for another 12-18hrs given the extent of the moisture.
  7. Raw T is now up to 6.7. Still one crappy shower left in the eye that needs to clear out.
  8. Organizing quickly over the last few hours. You can see a solid cdo ring now and the eye trying to clear
  9. GFS brings a 989mb low pretty close to LA and SD. 5-7" of rain, 50-60mph winds.
  10. Radar looks Nasty. 60-70kt velocities shooting up I95 from Wilmington. Does anyone post on this forum anymore?
  11. Looks like Wilmington and Philly will get hit worse than most of us did.
  12. Raining in downtown Columbia with some wind. The bow moving through moco is aimed right at us.
  13. The w moco segment looks like it's trying to bow also
  14. I think it's even a bit ahead of schedule. That segment is coming down 70 and 270 pretty fast.
  15. The current cells aren't moving very fast. I suspect that will keep the tor threat rather localized for now.
  16. Best chance for discrete cells will be in northwestern areas when the storms first develop. It will probably merge into some sort of an MCS by the time it gets to I95 leading to more of a widespread wind threat.
  17. This wasn't supposed to happen for like another 20-30 years.
  18. The rotation sig went right over me, there wasn't much wind.
  19. Finally it's ripping now. I was hoping it would smell like hot maple syrup. Really disappointing.
  20. Who needs an eclipse?
  21. Many people out and about in Time Square https://www.earthcam.com/cams/newyork/timessquare/?cam=tsrobo1
  22. Oh no, not grass!!!!
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