The CMC has more ridging off the SE coast and doesn't dig the troff in the NE nearly as much. I understand why it shifted west of it's 12z run. The GFS on the other hand, just randomly decided to take it west of 18z for no apparent reason
The Euro is showing a rapid pressure fall right before landfall. This happened with TS Gabriel in 2001, the pressure spiked right before landfall, winds didn't quite have time to catch up.
This is a large circulation driving and atmospheric river into the southwest. Large rain totals are inevitable even if the core of the storm falls apart faster than modeled.. A similar thing happened with Hurricane Irene in 2011, and there was still major flooding across the northeast.
The eye just cleared out again. My guess is recon finds pressure in the 935mb-940mb range. Should be able to hold on with cooler waters for another 12-18hrs given the extent of the moisture.
Best chance for discrete cells will be in northwestern areas when the storms first develop. It will probably merge into some sort of an MCS by the time it gets to I95 leading to more of a widespread wind threat.