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  1. This goes against my preferred narrative, therefore the UKMET is as garbage as they come and can be completely ignored.
  2. If we get both a Lee landfall/close brush and Nigel becomes a threat, would this be the most active tropical period for NE in recent history?
  3. Now this is an overreaction if I've ever seen one. Lee is in the latter stages of an ERC, and though the inner eyewall is fighting back it will be toast in the long run. I expect that by tomorrow Lee will clear a big, beautiful eye.
  4. GOES trying to will a hit into existence
  5. Lee is looking better by the frame; this is the clearest the eye has been in days, and intense convection has fully surrounded the center of the system. I think he might make a run for his earlier peak if trends continue.
  6. Even if Lee whiffs we have a whole other week of potential tracking for soon-to-be Nigel.
  7. What a beast. Looking better by the frame.
  8. Even if the winds aren't more than a typical nor'easter, this will be carrying a significantly larger fetch of water, which is often the larger threat with hurricanes anyway.
  9. Aside from a thick CDO, you can't really ask for a better tropical depression satellite presentation. Robust dual outflow channels, a defined low level circulation, and visible banding. Future Lee is primed to take off. Not only is this going to be a powerful hurricane, but it is also going to be a large one.
  10. If we could just get the system moving a little faster.. would-be Lee is absolutely crawling past day 7. Either way, we track
  11. Looks like Idalia is forming a potent and relatively tiny core. Will be interesting to see if it will collapse like Delta's or give way to a period of rapid intensification. All interests on the Florida gulf coast and coastal Southeastern states should be watching very closely.
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