Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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GFS keeps Tampa out of the storm surge but dumps 35" of rain.
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GFS looks SE with the storm and troff axis through 18hrs.
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There will always be hiccup run cycles. Sometimes it's 12 or 0z
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Give it another run cycle or two before buying the east shift.
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Good news is there's a pinhole eye forming. Bad news is it's on Noru
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987.9 extrap, core has expanded a lot though.
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CMC started east of 12z but ended up a bit west by 84hrs
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It just needed some wind to take advantage of the TCHP, everything else was in place.
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The core was so tiny the first time it might have been a localized effect due to a hot tower.
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It probably reformed under the blob, so give it a couple hours to stabilize
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This is similar to what Harvey, Delta, and Micheal did. All had a sudden convective burst that dropped the pressure from about 1003mb to 990mb in a few hours.
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GFS already NE of 12z through 18 hrs.
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ICON really clobbers Jacksonville. The Euro is pretty bad for them also. NE FL, GA and SC coast need to be ready for this also.
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GFS intensity forecast was not great.
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GFS is actually showing a center jump to the west between 00z and 06z. Looks suspect.
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Lots of lightning on the NW side. Looks like a band is forming there.
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Hard to buy the far west tracks with the strong SW shear. Upper winds sometimes end up steering the storm more than modeled. There should be a NE drift once it gets into the Gulf induced by the upper winds and the front to the NE. This is pretty much what the UKMET ICON and Euro are showing.
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Wouldn't be shocked if the center reformed under that northern blob. They are generally better at reforming centers than southern blobs and with the weak messy structure the center is very up for grabs right now.
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WPAC, Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones
Amped replied to 1900hurricane's topic in Tropical Headquarters
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Seeing no west winds to the south of the center
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Wanted: A core
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Going to guess the landfall point is somewhere near Tor Bay based on centroid extrapolation
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Has a clear westerly component to the motion the past few hours, so it might be able to clip the NE part of the main island.
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CMC and ICON came west a bit. Much better model agreement than 12z assuming the EURO doesn't go way east.
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GFS is digging the troff in the MS valley more and further west this run. Extrapolating it should hit west central FL
