Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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A lot of uncertainty here, the ceiling is high here, but so is the potential for organizational issue. Also I'm not buying the tracks that go inland over the Yucatan yet.
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Icon hits Tampa, Jacksonville and the GA/SC coast pretty hard. Even if it's just a Cat2 with a large wind field that could cause a lot more damage than a Cat4 tracking over Apalachee Bay.
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The GFS and the Hurricane models were all initialized way too strong. The Hurricane models were also initialized way too far NW.
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HAFS B goes sub 900mb FWIW. It would be the first atlantic basin storm to do that since Wilma.
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The modeled track kind of shows it taking an eastward jog out to near Jamaica then turning back wnw into the Yucatan channel.
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6z hurricane models are pretty intense. Some have it a major before entering the Gulf.
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Here's my entirely subjective extrapolation of the circulation center.
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Big connective bust the last few hours. Also I'm seeing hints of a circulation forming east of the NI/HU border on the shortwave IR.
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The GFS and euro agree on the track and 500mb pattern now.
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Eps still has a lot of members near Tampa.
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A lot of difference in the handling of the pattern. Gfs and Ukmet digging a troff along the southern apps, other models, not so much. Cmc and ecmwf AI have a cutoff low over TX/OK
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00z EPS shows a lot more support for a storm in the central gulf.
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Cmc has Cat1 winds in Tampa despite landfall being in the panhandle.
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It's our only trackable threat at the moment. Euro at least has something even though it's pretty weak.
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Getting a bit to close to rhe Nola metro for comfort. Thankfully it won't be as strong as Ida.
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Getting a downpour and plenty of thunder in columbia now.
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Lucked out so far with the worst of this second round staying over Long Island.
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The HRDPS, which was the only model to show a precip bullseye over SW CT, shows another 2-5" across the area already hit, similar to the HRRR.
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Rename the area DC, so it splits in half and misses them.
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Still trying to back-build, with the next round incoming from NJ in a few hours.
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[img]https://i.imgur.com/PDY5zdw.png[/img]Wow, stay away from that Lake Zoer area.
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Looks like the dryslot going to win. Big totals are going to be confined to the 81 crew.
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Just got back from WV. Lots of downpours along I70, radar not doing it justice.
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The 6z Icon keeps the track inland through PA NY and NE. This would mean a lot more impact for the Mid Atlantic and New England. Also note that both the gfs and Icon both handle the NS differently on their 6z runs and show an amped up troff over the great lakes, which allows for this track.
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Nice straight line.
