Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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GFS is slower and stronger, but still loves Perry FL just as much as 12z and 18z.
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Agreed the dry air source to the east has been effectively cut off by the band from the south wrapping up the east side of the storm. Any dry air left in the core is being mixed out by the minute.
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Just my opinion but it looks like the dry air is on its last stand and the banding structure is looks robust and locked in place. Usually this indicates the start of a 12=24hr RI period.
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Everyone backing off on RI just as the IR is going beast mode.
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Latest drop was 973mb.
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1 out of the 6 of them has.
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Radar bands filling in the SE quad of the storm. There are a couple of hints of overshooting tops forming on IR. Maybe a connective burst going off there in the next few hours.
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From what I can tell the GFS Euro Gefs and EPS all track close to Perry or slightly west. Also that's the eastern edge of the NHC cone, so I'm not going to interrogate anyone who favors that track.
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975mb dropsonde.
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One hottower stuck in the middle of the eye. It has little if any meteorological impact, but is great at blocking our view of the eye while it forms.
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NHC should be having a fun debate on whether to extend the hurricane warnings into Tampa just for the storm surge.
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The southern side of the storm looks improved. There's some banding now instead of just paint spatter.
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There is an inverted troff on the NW side of this storm as it makes landfall. That may produce a more onshore wind trajectory to the west of the track than you'd typically expect.
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Already up to 36TJ IKE. Expecting a huge increase in the next 24 hrs with the increase in strength and size. https://x.com/hwind/status/1838938345520435559
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Global models are showing the fastest deepening rate tomorrow night through Thursday morning.
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I can finally find the center on Cuban radar.
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12km Nam goes sub 950mb this run. This probably means the 3km NAM will show a wormhole to another dimension.
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Cuba radar isn't showing any sort of an eyewall yet. Probably means there's still multiple and or misaligned centers. High tchp and consolidation are allowing it to deepen anyway.
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GFS has less Yucatan interaction this run hence, a stronger system. It's still spinning up satellite vortices like you get extra credit for it.
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Is there any model guidance that shows the forward speed at landfall. This one seems like it gets from 150 miles west of Tampa to almost the GA border in 6hrs. Maybe close to 30mph?
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Any wobble to the north during the next 12-18 hrs will have a large impact on how much time it spends over the Yucatan.
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Global models have been in the 960s through 980s with the landfall pressure.. HAFS-B is pretty much in line with that this run.
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The band also still looking linear, and shows no sign of trying to bend or wrap around the center
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No sign of a center on radar. Things can change fast though. Hopefully the 18z euro intensity isn't accurate.
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A lot of uncertainty here, the ceiling is high here, but so is the potential for organizational issue. Also I'm not buying the tracks that go inland over the Yucatan yet.
