Amped

Trending in the right direction, but we still got a lot of work cut out for us. LFG

Eps improved although I'd like to see a few members near Ocean City like the gefs have.

Yes it tries to back in off the ocean, about as Miller A as you can get.

Neither does any model. This is one of the least predictable setups you could possibly have in an east coast winter storm.

Icon isn't any better. It extends further west, but the energy stays strung out instead of forming a closed low.

96 and 2016 both trended north as we moved closer in. In 2016 Euro was way too low with totals in the I81 and I78 corridors. This is unusually low predictability, so that may cancel out modeling improvements since 2016.

Its pretty much the same as 00z and not as good as 18z, but yes ots better than 6z.

The gfs, aigfs and icon trends are. The cmc, uknet ,and euro trends are not.

Takes almost 24 hours to get from Raleigh to DC

Perfect position. Freeze the troff axis over indiana.

Gfs looks slightly west so far also. Edit. Well west at 78

Just like last week's storm.

We all know Richmond jackpot is always the solution that locks.

Cmc even further west with the troff axis at 102hrs. Coastal looks weaker so far.

This thing ain't messing around if it does hit us.

This is one of the stranger setups in recent years. Hard to figure out what's driving it and what its sensitive to.

Theres a range of outcomes there from the most epic snowstorm of all time that weenies will be talking about for decades, to a cold sunny day.

Keeps us in the game at least.

Not splitting the 500mb energy as fast as the cmc and euro.

A couple things are adding to the low predictability of this setup. 1. For every mile THE PV retrogrades west thats a mile it has to come back east. It ends up taking much longer for the troff axis to move through. The opposite is true if it retrogrades less. 2. Every bit of vorticity that consolidates with the western lobe also leaves less vorticity for the eastern lobe, we get weaker confluence plus a stronger troff. Opposite is true if it splits further east Combine all this and we will probably be getting windshield wiper runs for a couple of days. We don't usually get snow from setups where the 50/50 low is this far south, so its not gonna be easy to get a favorable track.

It definitely is, this is not a typical setup. Gonna need some meteorological gymnastics to get it to tuck and curl in the perfect spot.

It doesn't retrograde the pv in Canada as much this run. You could tell by the 500mb maps at 60hrs it was probably going east.

Mega-Pivot FTW

This is a tough setup to get to come up the coast. Need an initial disturbance in the Gulf, or the baroclinic zone further north, or the high to move offshore and generate a return flow.

Its unusual to overperorm with that. I expected a bigger dryslot given the low track.