Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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31 and we've got some zr and pingers
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It's close some lake effect snow and a couple of sprinkles over Florida.
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Ecmwf almost gets the entire country precip free on friday.
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We specialize in wasting great patterns. We are also good at melting whatever we do get within 24hrs.
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500mb setup should allow the coastal to track further west and dump a foot or two from Goergia to Maine. Of course its fantasy land and nothing like that will verify.
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Oh good, Atlanta gets more than us on this run.
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It takes an entire month of blocking to get 4" of snow in our region. Pathetic.
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Right on Q, Nam goes from having the least precip, to having the most precip in 1 run.
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So out of the 10 opportunities for snow in the next 16 days how many will actually pan out?
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Just a bit of a 50/50 low.
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The 200mb jet streak running e-w just north of us is in a nice spot at 150-180 hrs if the gulf disturbance can make it here.
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Icon 180 looks nice
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Nam has more ridging offshore and it's keeping the troff axis further west over Indiana at 60hrs. EDIT: And it still gets booted offshore at 66hrs. Need that troff to stay intact longer.
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Typical Nina pattern. First it's cold, dry and windy with the freezing line down to Georgia, then there's a storm or two 300 miles offshore. Then when we finally do get a storm that brings us precip, the freezing line retreats to just south of Buffalo, NY. Then we rinse and repeat.
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What makes you think we're getting that much?
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Looks good for a few inches assuming thats snow.
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Icon is digging west also fwiw. Also digging the trailing wave over west Canada further west at 72, which could help.
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The southwest part of the troff drags back too much for a negative tilt.
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Only about 22mb weaker off cape cod this run. It's like it's rolling the dice with the laws of physics every run.
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Well the GFS only has one day 4 bust so far this week, so it's overdue.
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Widespread > 12" east of Colorado and south of 42N rarely happens, but the GFS loves to show it.
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Of course it'll verify from Michigain all the way to Maine, cause we all know it doesn't snow here anymore.
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So close, it nails SE VA and southern MD. Plenty of time to will it north.
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I have a tough time seeing how the Euro ended so differently than 12z and 6z. It seems like it suddenly turned the 500mb energy east this run instead of digging it southwest. Look at the lead vortex over the Michigan UP instead of Wisconsin like 6z and 12z. This means it doesnt lower heights to the south of the second wave, possibly causing it to turn east also.
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The 500mb low track is decent for Washington to Boston. Solid Norlun troff setup. Earlier runs may have been too far south for us to get the best dynamics.
