Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Interesting how that satellite view looks displaced 10 or 15 miles ne of the nhc track and the zoom earth track.
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I'm just hoping for the eyewall to go anywhere but straight up the bay and over downtown. It will be be a slightly milder apocalypse if the eye avoids the most densely populated area.
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It did finally take a westward jog in the last 15 minutes.
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They are trying to stay calm, but you could imagine they must have deleted the phrase "Oh Shit" from that discussion in like 20 places during editing.
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The track of these small small storms is kind of tough also cause they wobble a lot more as they approach the terrain. Looks like it's moving almost due north now, but maybe it takes a quick east wobble later. Landfall showing between 6z and 9z so it only has a few more hours.
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Forecast has it going west of Acapulco, but way too close for comfort.
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Impressive wish we had radar in this area
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The sun is so overrated.
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Hopefully not. Don't need 2 weekends in a row ruined. Hopefully the gfs is overdone withe the wind. -
I'm surprised they didn't go with subtropical. Looking at phase space diagrams there's is a pretty shallow warm core and doesn't have much symmetry.
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Exactly my thinking. Hard to capture a storm 150 miles from Bermuda and hook it back into New England. It needs to track much closer to the Carolinas.
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GFS already has more ridging to the NE of Lee this run. It will probably end up further west than 18z.
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The wind field has really expanded. Hurricane force winds now extend out 60 to 80 NM from the center.
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Appearance has really improved the last few hours. Could be seeing RI 2.0.
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12z Euro has a similar track to the GFS and CMC except its 6 to 12hrs slower with landfall.
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Why track Lee when you can track the 336hr gfs storm.
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Just about to post Seeing 918mb on TT at 51hrs down from 949mb at 42hrs
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155kt SFMR, also looks like the aircraft got jolted by turbulence at around that time.
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Based on the IR the weakening has stopped at this point and the structure is improving again. Something weird is going on if the pressure is still rising fast.
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The west side of the storm appears to have expanded again the last few hours. It's weakened enough that it's got plenty of room to RI again.
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This could end up being like Typhoon Mawar back in May which fell apart for a day and then rapidly strengthened back to a super Typhoon.
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Last hour you mean. It's been keeping the steady 5-6mb /hrs pace since 11am
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Sfmr probably overdone, but still safely a cat 5 now.
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That eps member in NJ ain't verifying.
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So about a 47mb pressure drop in 9 hrs assuming it was 983 at 11am.
