Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Another similar setup that failed to produce was 3/24/06. You can see we had a closed 500mb low in the perfect spot but the confluence was too strong. Don't remember any snow from that setup. Maybe a couple inches in nc/va? https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2006/us0324.php
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Were like 1 or 2 se ticks away from a towel run.
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Nam has a surface low over LA at 60hrs 300 miles north of any other model. Nam just makes up its own rules, especially after 48hrs.
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Exactly, too many posts in this forum overcomplicate things. More downstream ridging= Further north track Less downstream ridging= Further south track. Ot works out at least 95% of the time unless you're looking at the Nam. Edit: whoops meant downstream not upstream.
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Yes but it's too early and prevents the southern stream from developing. You want lower heights over MO/AR and higher heights over WV/PA to force a slower more northerly track.
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Still not a great trend since 12z yesterday, the southern stream looking flatter and more progressive. We need the opposite.
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Euro is halfway between it's 12z and 18z runs.
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We can work with that. CMC and UKIE not so much.
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The GFS does look like December 2009 96hrs out if it makes everyone happy.
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GFS was the trash model yesterday, now it's smellin like a rose.
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Been a fun 48 hrs.
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Yes I'd still like to see the Euro return to a stronger more consolidated ull like 00z
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Keep the jackpot a little to our southeast until 60hrs out. Then we can start willing it north.
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It's digging the NS further west over the Rockies. That should be enough for a cave in. If not then next run.
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Gfs should join the party this run.
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Lol the colors. That's only like 3" more.
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991 we can do better. 975 over OC or bust
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Here's a bookmark to Ian's old thread on DC snowstorm analogs, in case anyone's interested.
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The Jma the most important model of all is also a hit. Similar to the Euro but in much lower resolution.
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Make some noise
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1004mb to 959mb in 18hrs on the cmc. 144 to 162.
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Cmc looks better than the gfs. It's ejecting the southern stream at hr 120.
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Gotta love how the ICON has the southern stream in OK at the same time as the Gfs and Cmc have it in AZ. Only 1000 miles difference.
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Looking at the 500mb trends on the op Euro and Gfs, there's no reason for a se shift. It's the same setup with higher heights out in front if anything.
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This setup isn't messing around. We haven't had all major models showing a storm like this in the medium range in a long time.
