Amped

We all know Richmond jackpot is always the solution that locks.

Cmc even further west with the troff axis at 102hrs. Coastal looks weaker so far.

This thing ain't messing around if it does hit us.

This is one of the stranger setups in recent years. Hard to figure out what's driving it and what its sensitive to.

Theres a range of outcomes there from the most epic snowstorm of all time that weenies will be talking about for decades, to a cold sunny day.

Keeps us in the game at least.

Not splitting the 500mb energy as fast as the cmc and euro.

A couple things are adding to the low predictability of this setup. 1. For every mile THE PV retrogrades west thats a mile it has to come back east. It ends up taking much longer for the troff axis to move through. The opposite is true if it retrogrades less. 2. Every bit of vorticity that consolidates with the western lobe also leaves less vorticity for the eastern lobe, we get weaker confluence plus a stronger troff. Opposite is true if it splits further east Combine all this and we will probably be getting windshield wiper runs for a couple of days. We don't usually get snow from setups where the 50/50 low is this far south, so its not gonna be easy to get a favorable track.

It definitely is, this is not a typical setup. Gonna need some meteorological gymnastics to get it to tuck and curl in the perfect spot.

It doesn't retrograde the pv in Canada as much this run. You could tell by the 500mb maps at 60hrs it was probably going east.

Mega-Pivot FTW

This is a tough setup to get to come up the coast. Need an initial disturbance in the Gulf, or the baroclinic zone further north, or the high to move offshore and generate a return flow.

Its unusual to overperorm with that. I expected a bigger dryslot given the low track.

I am in Columbia and yeah we got about that. It's extremely dense and slippery.

Backfilling, hopefully not for long.

Another vortex moving down Long Island on radar. This is like the third one.

Back edge approaching Frederick finally. Only an hour or two left.

Wow this needs to stop soon.

Just took a walk and this crap is easily as bad as 15" of snow. Dense and slippery, like walking on a pile of dead fish but without the smell luckily.

I hate the scratchy crunchy sound this stuff makes when you walk on it.

Looks like the entire region got 6-7. Are you telling me nature doesn't have a sense of humor.

Its sleet now, couldn't even make it to 14z. Good job NAM, this is your 'Farewell Storm' Thanks for your service.

Some decent rates now

Gonna need 1/hr rates for the next 9 hrs to make our forecast.

Pixie dust in Columbia yay