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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Latest IR eye temp on the ADT is +20C and still warming. 903MB 155kt is the intensity estimate from the advisory.
  2. Now has a very similar appearance to Dorian Edit: Didn't even realize this was already posted.
  3. You can see the intensity roller coaster from the past 48hrs. 140kts to 90kts, now back to 140kts and still rising.
  4. Rather substantial weakening and the track shifted well north of the island. Almost safe to say it's going to be a bust.
  5. Looked like a dry air intrusion for a while. Now it clearly has the appearance of an ERC.
  6. With all the advances in AI, a preschooler could still find the center of a TC better than ADT.
  7. Before landfall but not at landfall. Kind of makes sense since it was moving so slow and the strongest winds were on the back side of the storm. The core would have interacted with land for about 6 hrs before the strongest winds got onshore.
  8. Just had another huge gust that woke me up.
  9. It wouldn't be a windstorm without garbage blowing around
  10. It's windier now than during the Tstorms
  11. The HRDPS sometimes beats the American mesoscale models on convective setups in the northern half of the country. HRDPS was the only one to have the line this far southwest.
  12. Yeah the cell on the MD/DE border looks like it's trying to produce something.
  13. HRRR has one cell ahead of the line over Wilmington & SNJ. Watch out if that forms it will have some really good parameters.
  14. Hopefully the crapvection disrupts that thing before it gets to Bloomington.
  15. Another cell wants to spin up in S TN between the other two. They're keeping the spacing well.
  16. Doesn't do it justice, a lot of those will be EF2+
  17. Taking almost the same track as the last one.
  18. Another cell in eastern ARK looks like it's got a couplet forming. Edit E of Marvell Ark needs a warning
  19. That one does not look like it's going away quickly. Possible long tracker.
  20. The new hrr doesn't show things going full linear until 5z.
  21. Right on schedule, 230pm local time is when most big outbreak days usually start cranking out TW.
  22. Wow wasn't expecting a double high risk area
  23. Can't wait to get fringed. It's not winter until models pull the rug out from under us inside 60 hrs
  24. If I told you that we would get near record setting Greenland blocks in December and March would anyone of the long range forecasters have predicted we'd get no snow from either?
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