psuhoffman

The only time I actually thought the pattern looked good was back in early December, and we did get what, on its face from a 30,000 ft view was a good pattern in mid December. This was actually the one time this year we had a longwave pattern that legit looked good. But it failed because that mean hid within it the fact that while on the whole the SER was suppressed and heights were lower in the east, in reality the SER was still able to thwart our chances because it resisted just enough each time a wave came along allowing each system during that period to cut well to our west. But that look above is a carbon copy of our "how to snow in a -PDO" analogs. But it failed, and I think some decided since that didn't work we are better off trying a different pattern. Problem is just because a really good pattern totally failed doesn't make a bad pattern more likely to work. It's actually simply depressing that we wasted a legit really good pattern. I don't think many actually think we've ever had a high probability of snow at anytime since that mid Dec pattern fail. I think some are just trying to be positive and keep hope alive. That's fine...but me personally, I would rather just accept how awful it is and face it head on and not tease myself with getting my hopes up over what are extremely long shot threats that are extremely likely to fail.

You're right that this is not acting like a canonical nina. @Terpeast noted if you look at the h5 analogs its actually behaving most like a neutral following a nina, which makes sense as the nina fades perhaps we are already into the phase where the atmosphere is behaving like a neutral. Problem is most don't realize, for whatever reason, that a enso neutral following a nina has been even worse for snow here than a nina.

Eventually we will get snow and the clowns who are constantly hyping every day 15 threat will claim victory.

Gefs has some limited support. Super long shot but at least there are a few members hinting maybe. Last few op runs that teased I didn’t even bother to say anything because there was absolutely no support. It’s still the weakest of signals and probably gone tomorrow but I figured I’d mention it. If we ever are gonna get lucky it has to start somewhere.

12z 2/2/23 ensembles BWI snow probability through day 15 1”: 11% 3” you don’t wanna know 6”: my microscope broke

30-40 years

Curious what the red tags think on this. My preliminary theory is “perhaps” the mjo impacts of the expanded indo-pac warm pool along with the expanding pac Hadley cell AND the logical impact of the almost permanently above normal gulf and western Atlantic are all combining to enhance the SER even more so than the pdo alone did during the last -pdo, and that is why we’ve seen patterns that historically were able to mute the SER fail to overcome the SER recently. 2 part question. There is not nearly enough data yet but do you think this COULD have any validity. And if so what other factors could help overcome that?

Good. Either way the more test cases the quicker we can come to a conclusion

Raises hand: Oh OH OH I know this one

The signal is hidden within the ensembles. The near neutral heights up top on the ensembles are because there are competing camps. There is some support for the -NAO the op runs are hinting at. The problem is, within that camp, there is a split between what the mid latitude impacts are, with most members showing continued ridging in the east regardless of the NAO state. We've seen that show now in a couple op runs also, the 6z aside. This is something we should be watching, and there should be more discussion and analysis on imo, is why havent, and what needs to happen for the NAO to have the canonical mid latitude response. IMO this is the most important factor because I do think we have entered a long term -PDO cycle. If we look back at the last -PDO cycle the way we got snow was not typically to get a positive PDO/PNA. The pacific was stuck in a hostile state about 80% of the time from 1945 to 1980. The way we got snow during that period was mostly during periods of high latitude blocking that forced the trough in the western US to cut east under the blocking instead of lifting, resulting in a basically a west to east full continent trough. We didn't ever really get a favorable pacific, we just overcame it. Look at the h5 for all our above normal snowfall -PDO years since 1960. The blue there is exaggerated because most of those years are from a colder base state and its using todays norms but you can clearly see the longwave pattern. The pacific is flat out god awful. Aleutian ridge, western N American trough. The reason most of the years are from so long ago was that was the last -PDO cycle. We have had a +PDO 75% of the time from 1980 on so there weren't that many years that had a -PDO for there to be opportunities. But within that there is a troubling trend where the percentage of -PDO winter months with above normal snowfall is dropping significantly. That is a big problem if we are going to spend 80% of the next 30 years in a -PDO! But if we dig even deeper the problem is related to the NAO. During the last -PDO 35 year cycle positive NAO periods were really really bad by that time periods norms. But -NAO periods were very very good. The reason -NAO's worked though was not because they somehow timed up with a favorable pac. This is why I get annoyed when people blame a NAO fail on the pacific. In our last hostile pac cycle the NAO was how we overcame the hostile pac. The hostile pac isn't going away, and I got bad news...thats likely true even in most nino's, many of our ninos during the last -PDO the pac was still a hot mess just like 2019 was, but the -NAO was able to compensate. But our fail rate in -NAO-PDO months is increasing dramatically. SO far though the data set is too small to say anything with statistical significance. But we really really really need NAO's to start forcing the western trough to broaden into a full west to east coast to coast mid latitude trough and NOT see the SER simply go ape during the -NAO and even link up...because that is the only way we ever got a really snowy winter during the previous hostile PDO period on record. Yea those years posted above may not seem like that many... but if you remove them from out last PDO cycle it would have made that period god awful. What I am most interested in frankly is waiting to see that the NAO still has the same impact it did during the last -PDO, which is to say it can OVERCOME the hostile pacific, because if we truly are in the next -PDO that hostile pacific is going to last most of the rest of our lives. That wasn't a death sentence for snow during previous PDO cycles only because blocking could overcome it.

I don't have an issue with your posts...your keeping hope alive posts are great. You are always clear that these are long shots at small events. You aren't hyping anything. Its good stuff. And you don't get emotional. I was just replying to your post because it was articulating this theme that we need to change the tone. No we need to change the pattern. The tone sucks because the pattern sucks. We can start 500 threads and name them whatever but so long as we are stuck in this pattern the results will be the same. I was agreeing with you on that. ETA: I have only posted a couple times about tangible threats because honestly there has rarely been anything that imo elevated itself to a legit high probability threat at significant snow. But everyone has a different threshold. You're more willing to break down something that, for example, has a 20% chance at giving someone 1-3". That doesn't really rise to the level I am willing to dig deep into and write up analysis. Frankly in a normal year we wouldn't even bother wasting time on that. But I get it...we're starving so take the crumbs. I have no problem with anyone that want's to focus on any little spec of hope we have. Maybe one of these actually works out. That's often how we get snow in a crap year...getting lucky with some longshot mediocre at best setup. I just don't have it in me to get excited by them. I am more interested in analyzing why we're stuck in this god awful long term cycle and looking for signs we are breaking out of it, not just hunting the crumbs within the drought. I am hunting when we finally break out of it in a big way.

It was a joke, he was posting April snow pattern maps, and his reply was clever and funny because I replied "k" to several people yesterday. Can't we at least have fun since its not snowing. Why does everyone have to be miserable.

The coldest I ever skiid in was -20 at Steamboat but honestly it was sunny with no wind and it felt a lot warmer. The coldest I skied in New England was about -10 at Sugarbush a couple times and that felt pretty awful on the lift in the wind.

The negative vibe won't change until we can look at a long range pattern and not see a 570hpa ridge centered right over us. The problem isn't the analysis its the pattern. If what the majority of people here want is snow...so long as the pattern is really bad for snow...the analysis of that SHOULD BE BAD... unless its bad analysis. The fact that it has barely snowed at all all winter justifies the analysis. If we had long range threads all winter saying "this looks awesome its gonna snow soon" that would mean we suck at this and should find a new hobby. When the pattern is actually good for snow...then the analysis should be positive. When the pattern is bad for snow it should be negative. I don't actually get upset at all by whatever direction the discussion takes because the discussion and the actual snow are two different things. Yea the fact it is not snowing bothers me some. Not much anymore because I've pretty much given up and moved on. But no matter it never bothers me if the discussion is about a bad pattern or how its not going to snow...because its just words. Its not actually snow. Even if we were discussing how awesome the pattern looks and page after page of digital snow...its just words and pictures its not actually snow. Analysis of a good pattern doesn't excite me anymore than analysis of how awful it is. Its just a discussion, words, pictures...all the same. Just analysis. Why are people getting upset by people saying its not gonna snow? The words aren't the reason its not actually snowing. If we say its gonna snow and then it doesn't does that really make it better?

The chart doesn't look that impressive because it's not showing temperatures, its showing "change in temperatures". The temperatures warmed very gradually for 1000 years leading to that warm period. That chart is showing that temps are warming faster now than at any time in the last 1000 years, but its not showing what the temperatures actually were during any given time period.