psuhoffman

Your a ray of sunshine

The Nina was pretty weak last year. Our problem was almost everything lined up wrong. It wasn't just one thing.

Had 8" here from that. One of my favorite storms. Heavy wet snow. No wind. Stuck to everything.

68/69 had some massive east coast storms but they mostly missed our area with the big totals. One took too long to get going, late developing miller b type. One other was a moderate storm with precip type issues in our area before bombing out later. But those kinds of meso scale detail problems aren't worth worrying about right now.

That's my worry. I know no two years are perfect. The pattern onset timing wasnt exact one year to another. Or the values aren't the same. But we have the same general phase of all the major pattern drivers now as 2008 and 2012 and those were the worst 2 winters on the last 10 years at least at my location. Hopefully im wrong.

Those models jump all over and follow climo usually so they mostly don't add much except conversation imo. But this is the long range thread so it's worth a mention when a data point comes out. Even a less significant one. Now before things devolve into our annual fight over what's worth talking about and what's not... this is a weather forum. And this is the long range seasonal winter thread. Imho anything related to that is fair game. You wanna discuss the cfs or cansips go. Talk about the old school stuff like caterpillars and squirrels have at it. Bring up the farmers almanac sure. I'm not going to weigh it all but what's the harm? There are serious awful problems in the world today and this isn't one of them. Most of us come in here for fun and to get away from that stuff and because we love weather. Discussing those things isn't going to harm anyone. If you don't like it ignore it. In the winter of course I would rather be discussing things in the short range. Often I step back in the close range not because I don't like it but because we have a multitude of skilled posters who cover it quite well and things happen at such speed in the nowcast period that between work and coaching and a toddler I just can't keep up. But I would rather be tracking something close and those storms that just pop up 72 hours out are the best. Less angst waiting for it to fail. Omg the blizzard 2 years ago was torture in that regard. But when there is nothing going on inside 5 days I will look to the long range for hints at when things could get more favorable. And yes I do that with a lean towards optimism because I simply don't feel like being depressed all the time over frozen water that I have no control over. Life's too short. We all know long range stuff is low probability. So if you think it's useless and a total waste of time good for you. Perhaps say it once and then let the rest of us have our vice and enjoy ourselves. Thank you.... PS...this wasn't directed at any one person. No one take this personally. Just felt what was coming and thought maybe we could not go there again this year.

I doubt anyone has their winter forecast hinging on the cansips. Its just one data point to look at and something to keep us interested until the real serious stuff starts to show in about another month.

Every time I look at the data and analogs 2008 and 2012 just weigh down my optimism. Both were pretty decent matches for enso, pdo, and qbo, both absolutely sucked monkey balls, and both were by far the most recent example of such a climate configuration. 2 is not a significant enough sample size to say with any certainty or even likelihood that those 2 years are the perfect example of how this pattern will play out, they could just be a fluke that both were that way, but I just can't feel optimistic for our prospects with our two most recent examples of suck a pattern having been so awful.

After we did nothing following Newtown...it feels almost hopeless. If that happening to little kids at Christmas time doesn't light enough fire to force the nation to deal with the problem I don't know what will. It still makes me tear up thinking about it now years later. I'm not sure what needs to happen for our leaders to take action to deal with this but it's just sad in every way.

I've always been an Eagles fan since growing up in South Jersey, but I've tried to root for the ravens as a second team since I work in Baltimore and live in the area. But the way their fans have behaved the last few weeks makes me totally indifferent. So insensitive the way the (primarily suburban fans) are behaving given the issues of Baltimore city right now. I wonder how the team can even want to play hard when their fans boo them when they pray for equality in a way that didn't involve the anthem at all. I lost all respect for those fans that's for sure. Booing a prayer...wow. Stay classy

I'm sorry you are going through a lot of difficult things. Some things just suck and some times in our lives are just periods we have to endure and get through the best we can until better times come again. Only thing i can suggest is talk to people. Don't suffer in silence. Let those that care help you through. They will want to be there for you. I hope there are better days ahead soon.

None of us controls the weather. It's going to happen regardless. Being excited or amazed by the spectacle of it isn't the same as wishing harm on people. But if it makes you feel better we can start a thread for moral outrage and you can have an echo chamber of good people who want it to be 75 and sunny everyday.

There is obviously a good reason he is on a 5 post limit. I'm pretty sure everyone sees him for what he is. Try not to let him get you worked up, that's exactly what he wants.

His analogs never make any sense. 2 of them aren't even close on enso. Bad PDO match on another. I hate to criticize without knowing his methodology but it's hard when his "analogs" typically disregard the most influential factors we know of. His end result forecast could very well be spot on and I might agree but the road to the destination seems weird.

I think the discussion in here has been great. Substantive and really interesting looking into every angle of this winter. But I don't think it's died down because if volcano posts. It's still September. Things will ebb and flow as evidence trickles in regarding winter but can't expects it to go hard every day from now until first flakes. It will pick up again as soon as some reason presents itself.