psuhoffman

We know there is a faction that vehemently disagrees that there is anything more than bad luck or cyclical variance going on with snowfall. So let me amicably pose a question. What if we do get a 3rd snowless winter in the last 6 years. Something that would be unprecedented on a crazy level. Would that change your minds at all? If not what would it take? What if 4 of the next 5 winters are below avg snow? 9 of the next 10? 10 more in a row? At what point might you change your mind?

Not yet but I don’t like what I see and if I had to bet if I bust high or low on snow I’d bet high. But there is still a way out. The AO isn’t quite as uncooperative right now as it was those two years. The reason for my early emphatic calls those years was if you get to Xmas and see a strongly positive AO combined with a strong central pac ridge and a pac torch encompassing the continent history says it’s game over. That combo never ends well. Never. It’s too stable, supported by multiple factors, and takes too long to break down to save winter. By new years you can call it when you see that. It’s ova. There is still a way out this year. The pac ridge and AO are not as hostile. That pattern is ugly and would take weeks to recover but it could recover. The problem is history says our best chance of snow is actually December and early January. So if we get to Xmas and are staring a never ending pac puke torch in the face were probably in big trouble.

Not if you know what to ignore

The crazy thing is…as much as everyone thinks I’m a huge Deb, I’ve over predicted snow 5 of the last 6 years. Even when I went way below normal and predicted a total ratter like in 2023 I still said we would get like 3-5” and we got absolutely nothing! In 2020 when I made that infamous “time of death” post on winter I said we would probably luck into a minor snowfall at some point but for all intents and purposes winter was cooked, but that was too optimistic we didn’t see another flake all winter! As pessimistic as I’ve been I’ve not been pessimistic enough. I predict too much snow. Keep that in mind. It’s sobering!

You’ve come a long way!

If we don’t get any snow out of the next 2 weeks and the long range guidance isn’t out to lunch…we might be in trouble. This would take a while to recover from!

There was a storm that winter with a distribution similar to Boxing Day. It didn’t miss south as much as east. There were some minor events that missed south. But that’s also Nina climo. The worst negative snow anomaly is right over the DC Balt area in cold enso. You’re more likely to get more snow wrt average in every direction.

I predicted we will get snow this winter. Just not a lot and unlikely a big storm. And I see posts that show us getting 1-3” saying “that would be frustrating” because it has northeast of us getting 20”. That was what the impetus of my post was. For those that would be totally happy to get 1-2” of snow from a storm that crushes somewhere north or east of us with big snow they are being totally realistic and that’s healthy. Expecting is go get big snow then being upset when it hits the places climo favored in cold enso is not. That’s all. Everyone is different.

Lastly, 1 of the 4 storms that ended up a big cold enso snowstorm was maybe the biggest surprise snow ever but 3/4 were storms many on here identified as legit threats well in advance. One was that WAG I got right from 10 days out in 2011. But what all 4 had in common was a trough diving well to our southwest with an amplified wave digging into the TN valley to our southwest. 3/4 also featured a rarity for a Nino which was a mature STJ moisture feed to our southwest. If we see those things it’s ok to think this could be one of the exceptions. And the day 8-9 thing is way too far out to put to bed yet, but runs that show some NS dominant event with a SW that barely digs to our latitude and has to stall and bomb to get us don’t excite me. We all know how those actually play out.

Just so everyone knows I'm not just being a deb... there have been 35 NESIS events during a -ENSO including cold neutrals since 2000. And full discloser I did include 2014 in this, even though you all know how much of an outlier I think that season was...if I excluded it these numbers would be a LOT worse! Of the 35 NESIS events the average snowfall at BWI was 2.8" 71% were 3" or less 29% were 4" 17% were 6" 9% were 10" The max was 15" By far the highest probability of how an NESIS level storm will affect our area during a cold enso is with less than 4" of snow and that its VERY likely the heavy snow will miss us to the north or east. That is just the probabilities based on the records. I am NOT saying it cannot snow or that we can't get a good snowstorm, just that the odds are against it and so I am not getting my hopes up by long range HECS type setups because history says those storms are very likely to miss us. Just for comparison there have been 25 NESIS events in warm enso years since 2000 The avg at BWI is 7.4" only 40% were less than 4" 60% were 4" plus 44% were 6" plus 20% were 10" plus The max was 29" My advice is in a cold enso when we are tracking a major snowstorm at range...expect it to miss us to the north or east and to get a very minor event because that is what the probabilities say are by far the greatest odds...then be happy if it turns out to be the very rare fluke where we get a major event. Even in a warm enso our odds from range at a major threat being a BIG snow are below 50% but they are over double the chances in a cold enso.

Looks a lot like a typical cold enso HECS

The thermal distribution isn’t the issue. That’s general profile is what to expect with a strong -EPO. The issue is the degree of the anomaly. It’s ok if western and central Canada are +3 or +5 but when it’s +10 or more we’ve seen recently that even when we get a favorable long wave configuration the air masses here just aren’t cold enough because our source regions are torched. Southeast Canada isn’t super warm yet but roll that day 15 forward 5 days and it would be. it’s way too far out to worry about the specifics I was just trying to point out that we’ve blamed the hostile pac of the last 8 years for our source regions being torched several times. But there we have the opposite pacific long wave pattern and it’s a similar result.

I’m mildly interested in the window around the 20-22. There is a brief window we might have enough cold and a chance one one the NS waves could get forced south in the squeeze between amplifying troughs. The 12z euro and 0z gfs are ways that setup can realistically work. But it’s not something guidance will pin down at range.

No, but the elephant you’re talking about is there behind all of this. Ya it’s part of the reason 90% of the mid latitude land mass of the whole NHem is torched there. That’s not something you’d see in a more balanced period where “means” weren’t out of calibration. That’s something you see when what is “normal” is changing and the means used to make the blues and reds is constantly behind the curve. But my point was specific to the fact the pacific is 100% opposite of what we have had most of the last 8 years yet NAM is still torched. Yea what little cold there is is in the east but we need a colder profile than that to have a high % of snow. It’s 15 days away, not something to panic about yet, but it’s an ugly look is all.

That was a day 15 plot not 15 years. We’re not talking about the future I’m talking about now.