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About psuhoffman

  • Birthday 08/01/1978

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    Manchester, MD

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  1. That’s exactly what I was thinking. I had 20” a week before Xmas and it was still gone by the morning of the 26th even up here! That year I had a white Xmas only by a few hours. There is a reason we get a white Xmas less than once a decade.
  2. Definitely 100%. Maybe we should bump those snowstorm climo 101 threads from years ago. But I didn’t feel like typing a novel. Simply not overreacting to every random fluke op run is a good start I think but yes to really use the nwp correctly you need to apply real pattern knowledge and analysis. And let’s be honest not everyone is going to master synoptic analysis. And that’s fine…there are lots of things I don’t know Jack about.
  3. Math. The NWP is working exactly as it should. Let’s just take the 3 major globals and ICON since it gets so many eyes due to TT. Thats 16 runs a day. Any given 10 day period during winter has about a 10-25% chance of snow depending on the week and where in this sub you are. If just one run of one model shoes snow in a day that’s not saying the NWP is predicting snow. Climo probabilities would say several runs in any given day should randomly have a snowstorm. If only 1-2 or even 3 runs a day have snow that’s below climo! The vast majority of runs don’t have snow! But no one pays attention to them. Making things worse often when it’s boring people start to post obscure stuff like the JMA or some individual ensemble member. Now we’re talking crazy stupid low chances if we use probabilities when only one run like that has snow. When the majority of runs start to show snow that’s when it’s fair to say the NWP is indicating a high probability of snow. They still bust in those situations too but many exaggerate by thinking the models are saying it’s gonna snow every time an individual run shows a fluke snowstorm when the majority of runs don’t. Then we get people like Tenman who come on and rant about how awful the guidance is and they show every possible solution. Well yes if run enough times at long ranges you will get a lot of permutations. And that’s where understanding statistics and probabilities comes in handy.
  4. The main problem I see is that the system is coming across a little too far north. Look we know the STJ is likely going to be non existent and so a HECS is very unlikely but if we want some decent snows (for a nina) this kind of setup repeated in winter when the jet will be further south would be a good thing. So long as people don’t act stupid and get upset when we get 2-4” or 3-6” and Boston gets 1-2 feet. That’s just climo in a Nina and it’s going to happen. Best to just enjoy what we get and ignore the bombs that happen to our northeast.
  5. It looks generally seasonably variable. But if the Mjo wants to take its time so that we get an actual favorable pattern later in December I’m ok with that.
  6. https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/23/opinions/target-closes-stores-for-thanksgiving-impact-alaimo/index.html Great article about the Target decision. I couldn’t agree more with every word. Perhaps some little good could come from the last 2 awful years if we reevaluate what’s actually important as a society.
  7. It’s a clipper. Good luck pinning that down at any range. That said clippers can be nice up here if they take the right trajectory. I’ve had 4-6” a few times up here from a clipper. But it’s too early to know the track yet.
  8. You are just a troll. You know nothing you say here will make any difference. Everyone here either knows or is willfully opposed. Absolutely nothing, not one little anything, will be changed by any of your posts here. And you know that! You’re just here to annoy people. And we know that. It’s not like anyone thinks you’re for real. You’re act is boring and tired.
  9. This is a science based board. My guess 80% here agree climate change is a problem. But what do you think you’re accomplishing by posting your diatribes here? What possible solvency does this strategy have? Why aren’t you putting these efforts in a more productive way. Join an interest group. Lobby legislators. Go chain yourself to a tree or something. But leave us alone.
  10. He was taking the dick position same as he does with everything else.
  11. weather will weather whether or not.
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