psuhoffman

Don't worry there will be 2 dozen people posting 3 times a day to remind us how awful it is just in case you didn't know.

I've read speculation it's lag effect. So if the warm anomaly isn't strong enough to break the default inherent pattern it won't help. Differentiating warm and cool neutrals leaves us with too few samples to really make any difinitive conclusions It could also just be bad luck and too small a sample size. In an enso neutral the tropical Pacific forcing isn't the dominant factor and leaves us to the mercy of the crap shoot of other lesser influencing factors. Unfortunately most random combinations end up a fail for us. So we can roll the dice in a neutral but it's not going to come up a winner that often. Reliable records don't really cover enough time to get a large enough sample when we start breaking years into smaller groups. Some things are so consistent and highly correlated like ninas that it's easy to see. But things like neutrals after a Nina is such a small sample that bad luck a few times can skew it. How bad that is for us is hard to say for sure. I'm kind of being a downer in jest. But there is definitely nothing to indicate a neutral after a Nina is a good thing. Root for a weak to moderate Nino. Truth is odds favor a below mean snowfall year in every other enso state. Nina being the worst. The Nino thing is simple. A weak to moderate Nino will enhance the stj enough to throw juices up southern storms at us without overwhelming and torching the CONUS. Do that enough times and eventually cold will time up and we get snow. Add in a west based Nino which places the tropical forcing in a location that is favorable for a trough in the east and it's money. Those are our best bets for big blockbuster winters. Other then that every once in a blue moon we hit the luck lottery in a year like 1996 or 2014 when some other factors like the nao/AO or pdo line up just right. When they come along appreciate them and hug them tight because it can be a long frustrating journey until the next one comes along.

It could be a lag. It could just be that we typically only get 2-3 "good" winters a decade and the rest are pretty sucky. 80% of those good years are ninos. So that means 90% of Nina AND neutrals are bad. I think neutrals are slightly less hostile and we have had more blockbuster neutrals than ninas but overall the odds favor low snow in any year other then a Nino. That's a gross generalization though. And I'm using the general consensus of what most on here consider suck. It's obvious our typical winters here "suck" in most people's opinion so I'm just rolling with it. I'm not saying it won't snow but if we don't have a Nino the odds say it's not going to be a big year. Odds favor below mean. 2014 was a killer neutral but it followed a neutral. 1990 was good in northern VA following a Nina but I think it was a bit of a fluke. It sucked up here and most places. Kind of a reverse of this year.

Bottom line is neutrals following Nina are typically crap. If we have anything other then a Nino (and that's not looking super likely) better just assume it's gonna suck.

They were all worse then this winter was and everyone and their mother was whining constantly this year. That's as much as I'm going to analyze that.

I can remember some pretty crappy neutral following Nina winters btw. 1986. 1997. 2002. 2013. None leave me inspired. Next year will probably suck. If I had to guess right now over under I would bet I get less snow next year then I did this year considering every neutral following a Nina in the last 30 years was worse.

I love A basin. It's small compared to other Colorado resorts but it's got some legit terrain and a laid back whatever attitude. Awesome in spring. It's also located in a good spot to combine with other resorts. Keystone, Loveland, Breck, Copper, Winter Park, and Vail are all within an hour drive.

I don't poke fun at subtropics because he likes warmth. There are plenty on here that do and I've never said a word about it or at them. They will attest to that. But subtropics goes on and on with non stop constant whining no matter what and often his points don't even make sense. Plus he will sometimes say things he knows will irk people. I'm poking fun at those things. I could care less about his or anyone else's preferences. I do poke fun at the people in here that are miserable ALL the time and seem to do nothing but whine incessantly 99% of the time. But that's fair game. If they have the right to post their whiny nonsense everyday then I have the right to comment on it and joke about it.

Wait...I thought you were advocating we "let people be unhappy and complain" just a week ago? Now it's complaining you don't agree with and they should stfu? Which is it? Either everyone is entitled to complain without ridicule or not I'm not down with selective enforcement based on the kind of complaining we prefer. My take as long as it's not derailing the forecast discussion threads who cares. Let anyone complain but also let people comment about their complaints. It's a public forum. People will have opinions. You can't expect to post and then not get any reaction. Some will be unhappy with the weather. Some will comment that their being silly. Some will disagree. Whatever. I fail to see how any of that is a big deal.

Over the summer the enso models typically start having more reliable output. Before that they tend to make head fakes frequently. Once we get into September they should have a decent handle on where we're going.

The problem is not ALL storms will miss. Most will. That's the key to tracking and not going crazy in a Nina. Expect most threats to fail. But every once in a while there are hits. In the 98-2001 period we did gave the march 99 storm, the January 2000 storms, and the one decent snow in January 2001. This year was frustrating but we did get a decent snow in December and March. So a Nina is a bad pattern for snow here but it's not always a shutout. But you have to know going in what the deal is. That's why I don't go crazy tracking in a Nina. I expect fail. I'm just tracking "just in case" we get the fluke win and I sit back and enjoy the ride. Those expecting results at a good rate in a Nina will get disappointed.

The next time we get a weak to moderate Nino will likely be better. Have that come during this solar minimum and we stack the deck in our favor more. Get a west based Nino during a solar minimum and we're talking big potential. Those are the factors that are "somewhat" predictable at decent leads. Even those can shift unexpectedly but some of the other players that will have a say we have almost no chance to predict more than a month out or they have too low a correlation to worry about too much.

Scary thought... from 98/99 through 00/01 we suffered through a 3 year nina. Other then a 10 day stretch during January 2000 when aided by blocking we got some hits...it was a pretty sucky 3 year run overall. But 2001 had a lot of similarities to this past winter. A pretty good blocking period that did a lot more for places to our north and east then here...cold periods but without much payoff here with snow compared to all around us. And I remember at the time some thinking "next year will be better" and of course we know how that ended...2002 lol. It was a neutral year coming off some solid blocking...and to be fair the first half of 2001/02 had some pretty good blocking but the whole of N. Amer was warm and the blocking could't do anything about that and the winter sucked everywhere. Not saying we go down that road. But I never assume next year will be better. Every year is its own crap shoot. And especially when this year wasn't really a bad snow year on a larger scale...only locally. The "we're due" meter might not be as high as we think.

https://wmblogs.wm.edu/cmbail/let-it-rain/

There is a thread there too and yea it's more cordial but less conversation.