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About psuhoffman

  • Birthday 08/01/1978

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  • Location:
    Manchester, MD
  1. I'm not biting until it's within reasonable range given the situation this year but given all the things lining up right now it wouldn't shock me if things didn't flip towards at least a transient colder period before it's over.
  2. Yea I wouldn't be surprised if we end up with another window of cold in march. The pattern is close. I'm a little shocked given how many things are lined up right that the eastern ridge still goes nuts. I'm just keeping one eye to see if signs show up that the cold dumps into the east at some point.
  3. The storm was 3/9-3/10 1976. Very bad winter until that point. This area had only around 8" to that point. Similar to this year actually. The closest coop report to me from that storm was 7 miles north in Hanover pa with 12". Parkton reported 10.5". Uniontown 12.5". Loch raven dam 8.8". Bwi 7.8". iAd 6.4" and DCA 0.8".
  4. I'll check my records when I get home. Out enjoying the weather. But 1976 was a blah winter overall so that may have been the one your thinking of.
  5. It's pretty impressive and depressing that we're going to torch right through this....to me an indication of how dominant the negative drivers to this pattern are right now. Note we torched through a phase 1/2 in January also
  6. That's the one. Thanks
  7. I didn't mean my write up as a retort of your point but rather just a clarification. For us here the winters pattern was pretty static because we were stuck under the influence of several factors that for us meant warm and no snow as a predominant theme. But hemisphericaly the pattern went through several iterations that meant very variable weather for other places. It's micro vs macro view. It's just all the different patterns all lined up bad for us because as you pointed out there were some bad killer features for out specific location that persisted through all the seasonal variability.
  8. The pattern changed plenty just not for the better. Remember the upper Midwest started the winter frigid and snowy and has been torching and not a flake since xmas. We have had 3 real longwave patterns this year. One late November through mid December that featured an AK ridge and trough in the west and central US. One from dec 20-jan20 (with one 5 day transient cold blast in the middle) that featured a +epo -pna +AO/nao and as you would expect in such a massive ridge covering most of the Conus east of the Rockies. The pattern late January through feb 10 was dominated by another AK ridge and this time some higher heights around Greenland but also ridging across the western 2/3 of the conus and the resultant trough was too far northeast for us and the northern stream didn't dig enough. But see below the actual pattern from Jan 25-feb 10. We now seem to be transitioning into a 4th longwave pattern dominated by an epo ridge, central North America trough and eastern ridge. All 4 were very different but yea they had one thing in common, no snow. 3/4 also featured a strong eastern ridge and that's not a coincidence. Regardless of if it's a nino or nina we want the warmer water centered in the central pacific and cooler east. Modoki nino and east based nina. So even though the nina was weak and faded it did so in the wrong way. We needed it to fade from west to east not warm in the eastern PAC first. That only worsened the tropical forcing situation for us. That sst configuration is a strong signal for an eastern ridge. Then add in the warm waters all across the western Atlantic. That promotes a ridge in the east also. The qbo was detrimental to blocking that could have helped somewhat. My guess is those 3 factors were a big problem. And frankly we didn't have any help from anywhere else either. The north PAC sst flipped around and caused a pdo phase flip. The North Atlantic sst aren't great for nao help either. I honestly don't see anything that broke right for our purposes. Of course this is hindsight. The problem with seasonal forecasts is while some of these factors were known in November and the consensus was a crappy year, a few of these factors that cemented our awful fate this year weren't predicted at that time. Guidance missed the development of the warming in the east equatorial Pacific for instance. So there were some underlying dominant factors that skewed each pattern bad for snow here, but there was variability over the course of the winter season.
  9. We're never going to agree but I just can't put it all in the nina. I'll have to look into the official classification because a week ago cpc had a statement that the winter never made it to nina status. And the numbers seemed to back that up. But regardless a -.7 or whatever it peaked at is pathetic. We have had way stronger ninas produce better. You realize our enso was pretty identical to 1996 this year. That alone says there are more pieces to this puzzle. I agree that the enso state was a negative factor but alone it's not the driving force here. I actually think a combo of the warmer waters off South America and off the Atlantic coast are a bigger problem. All together there are too many negatives to overcome when they are all added up.
  10. Your both right in that on that specific look if the pna was better it would force the trough into the east. But I guess my point is this...right there the nao, ao, epo, and wpo are all lined up good. That should be enough to more then compensate for the pna. There we're times the pna was good and we said the nao was the problem. How often are we going to get 5/5 telleconections lined up right? If we needed that to snow our average would be about 5". To me the bigger issue is that the underlying pattern driver wants to put a ridge here unless things line up so overwhelmingly the other way that for a brief transient period cold wins. My guess is a combo of the qbo and the pacific and Atlantic sst
  11. Yes but the models are showing even with it we have no luck. That's just a statement of how bad it is. And a few times we did get a -nao and torched right through it.
  12. It's amazing that given this epo/AO/nao on the geps and gefs that there is still a raging ridge in the east. This is something I've noticed numerous times this year and always assumed "give me that general pattern and it will work out" but I'm not saying that anymore. There is obviously something driving the pattern that wants a ridge in the east. That said the overall pattern is good enough to hold out hope of something popping up in march.
  13. The euro and gfs are way off in their mjo progression. Gfs slips back into less favorable phases while euro goes into 1-2 which is what we want. That might determine our fate for march.
  14. Everything shows that progression. Any window will be very brief and transient. Then perhaps a more sustained favorable pattern develops later after day 15 IF the cold presses east like the euro implies. The gfs has wanted to dump it west and pump a huge ridge east.
  15. That 2013 storm was a much weaker version of the Ashe Wednesday storm. Similar track and setup and snowfall distribution only much less overall.