psuhoffman

Lately it doesn’t snow much ever here… there was a time when it did snow some in December and that was when it tended to snow more overall also. Am I the only one who thinks those two facts are related. I said we’re not all gonna make it.

What about the sun angle? And have you checked the soil temps?

You mean like this... Which rolls forward to this There are imperfections and I am not saying even in January that this would be a HECS, but IMO the bigger problem why this probably won't be even a smaller snowstorm is its early December and the temperature profile absent a direct arctic airmass just isn't quite ready to support this type of progression yet.

I lowered the criteria to 3" at BWI in order to get a larger sample size. These are all Nov/Dec 3" snows in Nino years since 1957. Not much difference, BUT I would note that while the trough in the Pacific does still encroach into the west coast the deeper trough is definitely centered west towards the Aleutians and there is a more significant PNA ridge present in the composite mean. I do think this supports the notion that we need a more perfect pacific pattern to snow in a nino early v later in winter. My main point earlier was just...its fine for this pattern to not be working in November and early December... but if its still too warm in January/February I don't want to hear any of this "the pacific isnt good" crap. We've snowed plenty with this exact pacific pattern in past el nino's. That was all I was trying to show.

This is a composite of every 8" snowstorm at BWI in a Nino year since 1957-58. There were 20 such storms. As you pointed out... the trough in the north Pac is there on the mean, and there on almost every one of those storms in the set. Most of those storms are January to March but a few were in December.

https://x.com/lopwx/status/1729605525187309993?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

https://x.com/jfd118/status/1729685709911384282?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw

It is, it ended 9 months ago!

But do I get my inch?

There are different discussions going on here. And as @brooklynwx99 pointed out, it's not unexpected for the current imperfections in the pacific to be a big problem in late November or early December. This is not a reason for panic yet. Almost all of our early season snowstorms in the last 20 years have come via a EPO/PNA ridge combo that allows anomalously cold air to discharge into the east. We don't have that. But two things can be true. I wanted to point out that the current pacific look that many are calling bad is actually one that has produced some of our biggest snowstorms throughout history. I am not worried that it is not working right now. If we get this look in January and February and it too warm, that is a problem. Two different things. @CAPE is correct that there are other avenues to just getting "some snow" around here than the canonical "OMG LOOK AT THAT H5" reds and blues in all the right places look. Yes I would prefer 20" of snow but I enjoy any and all snow. But... again two things can be true... if the single most likely path to snowstorms around here doesn't work, that is a big problem, regardless of whether we can still get some snow through other less canonical means. And the pattern I am describing is not just a KU thing. We have had MANY 3-6" snowstorms where something didn't go exactly perfectly from those patterns also. Basically in a nutshell what I am pointing out is the pattern that is the most conducive to producing a favorable storm track for snowstorms here is actually NOT the same as the one that produces our coldest airmasses. There are some rare cases where the two can overlap but that isn't the most common. It's not a good thing if the pattern that produces the track we need for storms is no longer cold enough to produce snow. We have discussed that the next nino would be a good test case for that. Right now is way too early to make conclusions on that. And I am on the record expecting it can still work, I've called for above normal snow. But I don't want to hear "this pattern is just no good" if its not working in January and February. That pattern has been our best most reliable snow producer over the years, losing that as a path to snow would be devastating out our snow climo. I highly doubt that is true yet.

But that’s a worse look for actually getting a big snowstorm. Again big cold and big snowstorms are two different patterns.

It can be, we’ve had nino years that were even more ideal in that regard, 2002-3 for example, and they can be colder. But the narrative here is basically that we have to toss all Nina’s and neutral winters now…super nino and extremely east based ninos aren’t good, and now we’re going to have to toss even more favorable ninos unless the north pac vortex sets up exactly 100% perfectly? I didn’t mean this is a test case for can it snow ever. I know given the right list of variables coinciding we can still get a lot of snow. But how likely is it? The test I mean is can we still EASILY win in a pattern that requires domestic cold absent needing 500 things to be perfect.

Nino. That trough was there during many of our biggest snowstorms. Most ninos aren’t that cold. The arctic is usually closed off. I’ve said this winter is a good test case. Can we still snow absent some 100% perfect epo/pna ridge that dumps a direct arctic shot into the east. Because that isn’t how 90% of our big snowstorms have come historically.

That has been true the last 15 years or so...the only way we have ever had snow before January recently is if the pacific is pretty much perfect. Almost every snow before January lately has come from a monster EPA/PNA combo ridge that floods a direct discharge of arctic air into the eastern US. But going back further that was not true. Here is an example of a major mid November snow from a convoluted mediocre pattern. And I could pull up dozens of examples of November and early December snows from the past where the pacific was not perfect. So in the recent past you are correct...my point is it wasn't always impossible to get snow early without a perfect pacific.

I am still mostly optimistic things are on track... At this early stage by far the most important thing IMO is seeing a favorable AO. IMO the most likely way this season fails is if we don't get cooperation in that regard. It's really difficult to have a -AO nino and totally fail. Early season blocking during a nino is also a good sign of a -AO winter. So right now the most important thing is that we are seeing signs the high latitudes should be cooperative this year. On the less optimistic side, it is frustrating that we continue to see a reality where we need everything to be damn near perfect for it to be cold enough to snow. Even when things are more good than bad it seems its just not even close. Yea the pacific isnt good, but its not a -5PNA or anything...a really strong blocking regime SHOULD historically be able to help with a mediocre to slightly bad pacific. But lately I see a lot of "well this or that one thing isnt totally perfect so of course we have no shot". How often is EVERYTHING going to be 100% perfect? Its not supposed to be that hard. ANd yes its early, but we have had years where a significant portion of our snow came in December. We don't always get to pick when the pattern gets right. Also, regarding the current cold right now...its useless and irrelevant to a "is it cold enough to snow". It doesn't matter if it gets cold on the NW flow behind a cold front or storm. Of course it can get cold in that scenario. But other than some flurries or maybe a clipper if we get lucky that is not relevant to our chances of getting an actual snowstorm. We need a pattern where cold can settle in with a depth that can resist warming during the return flow ahead of the next wave for it to actually be useful. Those last 2 factors aside it's too early to panic yet. Yes its ok to be frustrated given the evidence piling up the last few years... it's natural to have a "here we go again" feeling...but its REALLY EARLY and the pattern is more favorable than its been overall going into the last few winters... I am giving it a few more weeks before I start to actually worry too much.