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psuhoffman

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About psuhoffman

  • Birthday 08/01/1978

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTHV
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Manchester, MD

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  1. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    The climate models are garbage at this range. They flip month to month. They are based on predictions on top of predictions. Guesses at the myriad of factors that influence the pattern. We know darn well we can't get anything past 10 days accurately even at the general pattern level so worrying about several months away is silly. Don't confuse my post for being a tenman type shot at models. They are valuable in other ways and the effort at seasonal is noble and hopefully someday will yield results but we aren't there yet. With educated guesses at major drivers like enso we can use analogs to get "some" idea what the winter might be like. Sometimes when things line up all one way it's easier to say. Nina gonna suck for instance. But most times it's murky at best.
  2. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    It seems that whenever the solar cycle does reach its minimum shortly after there tends to be a blockbuster year. And it's not totally enso dependent. 2010 was the perfect storm of a solar minimum and perfect enso. But 1996 pulled it off with a Nina. 1977s unfavorable enso might have prevented a snowier outcome to a brutal cold winter. The minimum in the mid 60s delivered. But what most has in common was the nao moreso then enso. So maybe just not having a crap enso state is enough. Problem is we don't know if the cycle has bottomed or not. Is the "big year" this year or next. I think there is likely one coming but it might not be this winter. But I see no reasons to say for sure it's not or that this year can't at least be ok even if it's not.
  3. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    Now you've done it. We will have threat after threat and be under numerous warnings and they will all bust into 33/rain.
  4. psuhoffman

    September Banter

    Come on...don't we realize it's always about them!
  5. psuhoffman

    September Banter

    I want it to stall over D.C. as a category 10 that has a 500 mile wide eyewall with a pressure so low that people's heads explode and 10,000 mph winds that suck everything into the stratosphere where any remaining survivors can suffocate. At least then we wouldn't have to suffer through this BS anymore.
  6. psuhoffman

    September Banter

    Give me a dart. I'll take a shot at you...wait it. I meant it. Oops
  7. psuhoffman

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    still digging?
  8. psuhoffman

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Too much sun can cause skin cancer. Snow can cause deadly car accidents. We watch sports that can and have caused injury and even death. There are possible risks with EVERYTHING. 1. Rooting for exciting weather that could lead to harm is not the same as rooting for harm. 2. No one here actually has any control over it. Thus without causality there is no blame. Regardless of if someone is excited by the prospect of a rare interesting (and dangerous) weather event.
  9. psuhoffman

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    It does that to me sometimes too.
  10. psuhoffman

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    The image there is yesterday's 18z run. This is today's.
  11. psuhoffman

    September Banter

    I'm gonna go with no on this one.
  12. psuhoffman

    September Banter

    We need Carbondale dude to come explain climo to us again!!!
  13. psuhoffman

    September Banter

    Don't question it...he knows!!!
  14. psuhoffman

    September Banter

    You both have a lot in common then.
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