psuhoffman

Ggem is a coastal for the 24th storm now.

We were lol at the nam but the gfs took a major step towards that.

Icon is the first to piss in the punch bowl.

It’s on a roll.

The flip to a -NAO stayed in place on the 27th on the eps and GEFS today so it’s moving forward in time.

@Bob Chill one thing that could save us...the tpv drops pretty far west on some runs. That would open the door for systems to run the coast and could even open the opportunity for a monster phased system like the blizzard of 66. That was such a pattern I believe. If it comes down on top of us then your right. Squash city. I’m very curious what the analogs will show. I’m kinda frustrated I thought today’s day 11 centered on the 26 would start to indicate some blocking but even though it’s shoeing a bit on the GEFS by then it’s not on the analog height anomalies yet. Guess I have to wait one more day. But I want to see what it spits out once the -NAO -epo with the displaced tpv shows up in analogs. Might be telling.

Hopefully this isn’t like 1985. That would be a nightmare.

Love how your all goofing about that frame when if you loop the h5 it’s setting up a monster bomb triple phaser a couple days later. Check out the arctic jet diving into the upper Midwest as the heights rise along the coast. I can see our Groundhog Day BECS coming.

@Bob Chill

I am not re-litigating a fight from March 2016 but that doesn't mean I forgot what you said.

Excuse me, I need to take that somewhere private.

I am interested to see what analogs start to pop up as the better look gets into range. But going back over the last several days the flip of the NAO is not fixed in time around the 26th on the GEFS and making progress closer after it was initially stalling and delaying for a while. The EPS has been consistently advertising that time for the flip. I am honestly not sure what a full latitude trough like that along with blocking would yield. It's such a rare extreme pattern there aren't a lot of good analogs and I am curious what shows up. After that as the PV weakens and heights rise across Canada we enter a more classic looking regime similar to 2010. Should be fun.

Still waiting for him to explain how a low is going to move northeast out of WV through NC without a transfer.

just hug the ukmet...come on you know the handbook!

It dumps 6-10" of snow first...so the sleet and freezing rain would just be to harden and protect our snowpack for the coming month!