psuhoffman

Thank god blueberries go dormant by winter!!!

I ate some blueberries and it gave me the sh!ts

I saw Bruce Springsteen there several years ago. I remember it took a while to get out but I didn’t think it was any worse then trying to leave a lot at an Eagles game or any other highly attended event. But I tend to be pretty patient so maybe it was bad.

It’s never that simple. There are so many brilliant minds in this field and yet long range seasonal forecasting has extremely low predictive success rates. Because there are so many moving parts and conflicting signals to factor. It’s possible we wasted our solar cycle shot last winter. That wouldn’t surprise me. But it’s also possible last winter was just the start of an overdue longer period of high latitude blocking. The winter of 2009 had some decent blocking that did us no good. So did 2011. From 2009-2013 actually featured a pretty favorable high lat much of the time but it really only paid off much in 2010. Going further back 1977-1980 featured quite a bit of blocking following a period before of relatively little help up top. And it didn’t always work out wrt snowfall for various reasons but we certainly did cash in at times during that longer window. We can only hope that last winter the trend up top flipped and we have more luck with future -AO periods. For the record the blocking in 2009 was muted by the pac in much the same way as last winter.

Unfortunately the dumb angle is always a problem.

Sounds like you’re trying to convince yourself.

The mean looks like 1.75

Been crazy busy. I’m helping manage 162 summer programs sites across Baltimore. It’s been non stop 80 hours a week since March. I have to survive 4 more weeks then I have a life again.

I missed all the fun.

The last few years the pac ridge has been dominant. Longer term that will likely continue to be more and more common given the effects of climate change. But what we don’t know is if the last few years was also a shorter term cyclical thing and there will be some reversion to the previous mean.

Imo the expansion of the Hadley Cell in the PAC which subsequently leads to the PAC ridge and tight gradient in the north Pac (in other words the pac puke jet effect) is the dominant winter pattern driver v enso. What’s depressing is we got the best possible high lat pattern to try to offset that last year and it really didn’t do much good south of 40 unless you had elevation.

They have a pill for that.

I just hope there is no dysfunction in my message and he considers all possible replies so as to avoid being premature.

I’m trying to erect a plethora of desirable response options. Just want to make sure there is enough meat on the bone for him to pick at.

Nope. Ton where I work in Baltimore. Not a one up here.