psuhoffman

Hey it’s obvious he spent 30 years as a pro met developing his use of that emoji! That and CFS MJO projections... RESPECT!!!

Thank you... We all have our roles to play

Sometimes it’s hard to accept we just can’t “know” something. But instead of focusing on the specifics we don’t know there is a lot we do. It’s very likely we’re heading towards a solid weak to moderate Nina. That also means it’s highly likely we get a suppressed STJ and an active northern stream dominant winter. Regardless of details that’s usually a dryer than normal look here. We will see a lot of those “precip hole” maps with emojis as the mountains eat up what little moisture those NS systems from the west have and they draw in Atlantic moisture too late to do us any good. We all know the drill. What we don’t yet know...is exactly the orientation and extent of the pacific ridge. If it’s flat we are very likely looking at a similar pattern to last winter. Even that doesn’t mean it AS BAD as last winter. There were some opportunities early that DC missed. And maybe there is one or two less hostile periods and DC lucks out. But it would be another very mild and likely much below normal snowfall winter. On the other hand if the pac ridge extends poleward more we will likely see more arctic air intrusions into the eastern US and while it’s still going to be a struggle without the STJ, we have a better shot of lucking into some snow and eeking close to a median winter. There is always the crazy long shot possibility that due to some factor we can’t foresee an anomaly happens. 1996 for example. Or more realistically 1999/2000! That was a god awful pattern the whole winter but we got a 10 day period with great blocking and cashed in big time. Flukes like that cannot be predicted but they can happen. That’s my take on where we are. I don’t want to stop anyone from speculating or trying to drill down on the details. I love the discussion. So don’t think I’m trying to squash it. But imo it’s risky when you drill down so much you’re using 3 seasons (And 1 of those skews the mean) to make generalizations about the expected pattern.

You have to be careful with those correlations. I did a deep dive into every Nina since 1950 a few years ago and found flaws in the commonly accepted correlations. Those QBO solar specific Correlations for instance are highly skewed because it’s such a small sample. Take the easterly qbo low solar. I think there are only 3 members. And 1 is 1996 which skewed the entire composite. The other 2 years were nothing like 1996! Does that mean a low solar East qbo has a 1/3 chance of being 1996? Doubt it. More likely 96 was a fluke aberration. Too small a sample to draw conclusions though. That’s just one example. What I found when I really dug into the data was there is a pretty even mix of Nina archetypes (which we discussed a month ago) determined by the location and poleward extent of the pac ridge, in every Nina category and it’s very difficult to find useful predictive markers. I did notice that having a cold sst anomaly in the northern pac was almost always a bad sign but again it was a very small sample to say conclusively it has predictive value.

I need to get on the payroll. Tired of sending you business for free!

What your data showed was that of the last 5 Nina’s with a cold October none had above avg snowfall and only 2 had median. Here is the DCA snowfall in the last 5 “non cold” October Nina’s. 13.6, 4.9, 10.1, 3.4, 7.8 None above normal snow. 2/5 median. Same probabilities. Your data is fine but all it shows is how crappy a Nina is, not any correlation to October temps as a predictor of just how crappy.

Post better work

1. There are only 5 examples there of a Nina with a cold October. Too small to be reliable. 2. You aren’t adjusting the goalposts. We know in a Nina snowfall will very likely be below avg. we’re discussing will it be in the dumpster fire type Nina or the “better” but still below avg snowfall category. 2/5 years in that set were in the better category, 15.4 and 12.8” at DCA. If DCA breaks 10” in a Nina that is a huge win. If it breaks 12” it’s dance in the street time. 15” and clothes should come off!!! You listing how all cold October Nina’s were below avg is kinda duh since there has only been 1 above avg Nina at DCA total since 1950 so it’s too small a sample to draw any conclusions!

I don’t disagree just saying it’s not because of persistence. My point is many of the persistence crew isn’t really about persistence they are just about pessimism.

But 1996 would be an aberration in any enso. How rare is that outcome just in general? I think when you get that kind of blocking all bets are off on everything else. Look at 2018. We got that kind of blocking in March and April and had several legit threats! One legit hit and a few others that would have been if it was January not March plus one storm suppressed south of us even!!! If we could get that kind of Uber blocking Dec-Feb even in a Nina we would probably do good. 2010/11 spooks some people but it still took a pretty fluky weird course of events to miss that Boxing Day storm then we did get one good storm in January. But the blocking broke down and the rest of winter sucked. If the blocking had persisted another few weeks or had been centered mid winter vs so early when our climo is rough that year probably would have been better. Anytime we get that kind of blocking it can overcome other negative factors.

Where’s our “persistence” crew??? I’m not saying I buy that. I don’t. But...I find it funny that our resident persistence worshipers that like to tell us the crap pattern will continue because....persistence...are suddenly saying “but it won’t last” when the pattern is good.

I agree there is still hope this year ends up in the “better” Nina category. When I examined past Nina archetypes I found it very difficult to determine reliable predictive characteristics we could use ahead of time. The one would be extremely cold north Pac SST (Which almost always was a kiss of death) but we don’t have that. Unfortunately some still ended up crap anyways. But there is hope! However...notice most of even the “better” colder Nina Years were still more frustrating than not. 1996 aside the rest still ended up below avg in DC. But they did get closer to median and at least had chances in the area and legit threats to track and some places in our region did better in some of those years. So they are “better”. But it’s wise to set the bar pretty low in a Nina. Even a “good” Nina is simply getting anywhere close to avg. A median snowfall winter is a huge win in any Nina imo. If we get super lucky and 1996 decides to repeat itself great. But I’ll save my sanity not counting on that.

October snow is way too small a sample size to draw firm conclusions Thats like if some minor league player got called up for one game and hit 1/3 thinking they will bat .333 for their career!

Agree with all this. But what I found (and most know) is in a Nina it’s even harder to luck our way to a significant snow without any HL blocking. A lot of that is due to a less potent stj. Without blocking in any regime our best shot is to luck into a juiced up but progressive wave. Those are really unlikely without any stj help. But that is especially pertinent to DC. They are too far west to benefit from waves that develop late as they infuse Atlantic moisture. DC needs the gulf as it’s main moisture source. Only exception is a slow moving amplified bomb. But we need blocking for that so again catch 22! So it’s REALLY difficult for DC to get a significant snow in a +NAO Nina regime. Even more so than in other enso states.

There is a quote from prince’s bride that works here