psuhoffman

The San Diego snow weenies are in trouble! Jokes aside...on the macro level the propensity for everything to skew warm is troubling. Of course at the micro level it doesn’t mean much. We just need a couple good weeks to skew cold and time it up with a few storms to “win”. But seeing red dominate so often isn’t something I feel good about.

That’s a whole lot of red everywhere... I’ll keep the rest of my thoughts to myself so as to avoid a debate I’d rather not have in here. Cue Avant Regent Vice Hiatus in 3...2...1...

I agree with cape. If ALL the factors stayed the same yes. But the weak nino wasn’t the problem. It’s just it wasn’t dominant enough to offset other negative factors. The mjo was the biggest problem. I’ll take my chances with another weak modoki nino and roll the dice that other things don’t line up to hurt us again.

He isn’t trolling. It’s not intentional.

That makes sense and I agree. Other variables skew a small sample but when I sorted winters by enso last year with the exception of a few blockbuster neutrals skewing neutral enso state upward what you described is pretty evident in the overall means.

It’s odd. That’s all I can say. Always look forward to your tropical posts. I’m always here lurking. I just don’t comment unless I have something to further the discussion and with tropical usually I don’t.

I have no idea what exactly was the calculus. But there were several passes with 140+ kt FL and Surface and not just with SFMR but the drop too. They obviously disregarded that data. I’m not going to engage in motive speculation though.

Guess they like to ignore the flight recon data

It’s most definitely 5 now. Curious exactly what they will say in the next update. Recon would support 170 mph

But what about the hemispheric energies?

Some speculated that the pacific being on fire muted the nino because of a lack of gradient. If that is true...with the rest of the pacific still a raging sst inferno if we do get even a slightly cool neutral to weak Niña look might that behave like a super Niña due to the extreme gradient?

No one is policing your posts. But people are free to respond to your posts and dissent. You can expect anything you want! Im just pointing out the reality of our climo.

Or to put it another way...go back over the last 30 winters or so and be honest with yourself and determine how many would have left you satisfied by your current standards. If it’s way less than 50% then either your expectations have to change or your location.

Yea well you know where you live. People have to be realistic. We have enough records going back long enough to know that the majority of our winters will be sub 20” in much of this forum. And when we get a lucky run like 2014/2015/2016 we know we will pay the piper. The median snowfall for places around the cities isn’t likely going to suddenly jump from 15 to 25” like that. So enjoy the 3 or so years each decade that we get flush hits and realize the rest of the time is likely going to suck. That’s our climo.

That is a big reason the sst derived NAO forecasts are extremely negative. Those aren’t perfect either but have performed better than climate models lately.