psuhoffman

I don’t mind clippers at all. And sometimes they can really put down good totals up here. There were 2 in the 2000s that dropped 6” up here. Plus to get clippers the northern stream has to be pretty far south so it’s at least usually a cold pattern and often those clippers came before or after bigger storms. In Nina years with no STJ often those are all there is. But we haven’t spent enough time in cold patterns lately to get many.

Gfs has way too much going on to even think it has a prayer of being close to the right solution. But the period officially got my attention now. Goodnight.

A descending qbo, IO sst, shortening wavelengths all would suggest increasing chances to break the pattern as we move later in Feb or March. But beyond that I would be lying if I pretended to have any concrete insight. That PV has been a beast and isn’t going to give in easy.

Not if you move to northern New England.

So long as that wall remains up across the arctic no pattern in the mid latitudes can get that cold. But perhaps maybe cold enough with luck. Lots of luck.

I wish you luck. I do think we will have a few more opportunities to snow. I’m not yet resigned that DC ends up with a total skunked season. But odds of a “good” year are increasingly dwindling.

I get where you’re coming from. But part of using the guidance effectively is correcting for biases. The guidance won’t be perfect from range. It’s also incorporating climo and historical reference with the NWP guidance. The most logical correction right now is to assume the gfs is over amplified. But you are correct that could be a mistake. And that’s why forecasting long leads is low accuracy. But at day 8 we really shouldn’t expect that level of accuracy. Right now we can say with some confidence based on guidance that there is likely to be a system in the east day 8-10 with about seasonal temperatures that is likely a rain or maybe snow threat. That’s good enough. A day 8 forecast shouldn’t be more detailed. Exactly how strong isn’t necessary.

It’s ok, you can use my name.

The main difference is the depth of the system in the southeast. But all the guidance agrees on the main players. AK vortex. +AO. +NAO. Southwest ridge connected to a ridge across Eastern Canada. Trough in the southeast. That’s amazing agreement for that range. You’re stuck on specifics that should not be looked at day 8-10. Plus if you correct for the known bias of the gfs they look remarkably similar.

Not this weekend. The airmass is just too putrid. Way too much ridging ahead of it. But the next couple “could”. I know not to ever rule anything completely out. I showed that Hudson Bay composite. The pattern is close enough. Get lower heights in front, maybe from this weekends system bombing, and it could work. It will be a struggle with the crappy air mass though. But we’ve snowed before in a similar pattern. We’ve also cold rained more often. Like HM said...need luck. If we want a pattern that needs less luck we need that AK vortex to scram or the NAM to flip.

Read isotherms post an hour ago. Solar minimum is happening. We could get several -NAO years coming up. We just had a string of +++AO/NAO Years. That makes getting a good pattern in January when the wavelengths are least helpful in disrupting that very unlikely.

2017 and 2018 the pattern flipped late because both years featured a cold enso aided pattern with a strong PV. During mid winter when the PV at its strongest and wavelengths in the mid latitude jet are broad and shallow disrupting that PV was a lost cause. Then both years when wavelengths shorten aiding more ridging to transport heat to the high latitudes and create blocking and the PV weakens then we saw some better patterns set it. 2018 also was aided by a strat warm in Feb. It wasn’t bad luck it was logical pattern progression. It’s why some Nina years have snow late.

All 3 major ops agree on a dual wave system on the east coast day 8-10. That’s amazing for that range.

That isn’t that different for 240 hours. The longwave pattern is actually somewhat similar. If your focusing on exact strength and location of storms at day 10....plus the fv3 gfs has a known over amplified bias so...

Given our regions reliance on the NAO I think this would get a collective hallelujah