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About psuhoffman

  • Birthday 08/01/1978

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Manchester, MD
  1. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    If you don't want to be called a tool stop acting like a tool. We've had a ton of March snow and ice recently and yet every year we have to deal with this nonsense.
  2. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Flat can work. 1962 and 2013 were flat. I know D.C. Proper got screwed in 2013 but much of the forum had a good month. One system hit west and south and the other just north. But the flow was flat under blocking. You don't need super amped h5 to get good precip in march. Baroclinicity alone gets it done often.
  3. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Nope with you 100%. The look were seeing across all guidance is money. It's textbook for big storms. But there is no chance the gfs op will get details even close to right at day 11-15 so wasting time worrying about the run to run solutions is silly. We will probably get teased big time over the next week but once this comes into range then I'll start trying to figure out how it might play out.
  4. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    March 1958 as the number one analog is interesting also. There was a decent snow NW of 95 mid month 1958 also before the HECS storm.
  5. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Chuck I do think things might seem skewed towards extremes right now but when it gets cold it's been cold. It's been a year of great variance. That said the warmth hasnt meant it can't get cold also. Plus extreme warmth doesn't preclude snow later. In 1976 it was 80 degrees 5 days before Baltimore got 8" of snow.
  6. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    Were you really expecting an answer that made sense? Lol
  7. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    My guess is because by that frame the ridge has retrograded to the point it's centered southwest of Greenland allowing cold to filter in from over the top.
  8. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    @Ji i know you were worried about the lack of snow signal on the EPS, and gefs for that matter, but it's just coming into range. It's typically a bit after blocking establishes that we get a threat. The gefs was just rushing the evolution 3/4 days ago. But now everything is in agreement that the block will retrograde west across North Am. The gefs was still about 2 days ahead of the EPS but now the 6z gefs slowed things down a day and is only slightly ahead of the EPS now so even that is coming into alignment. Gefs had the right idea but was rushing. Based on that our best chance would be in March. And it might not be until march 5-15th ish. I wouldn't be shocked if something does sneak up before then either the very end of Feb as the blocking forces a high across to our north in that period or with that early march wave on guidance. But history says we do better after the blocking flexes and is going through a relax or break down phase. That is later. I would expect the EPS and gefs to start to light up in the next 48-72 hours or so as the period just beyond what they can see now comes into focus. If later this week we're still not seeing any reflection in snowfall then I will worry a bit. Not at all now.
  9. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    I'm not that worried about the PAC if the depiction of a retrograding block across North America is accurate. Actually in such an extreme a better Pacific might just help squash things south of here. Look at some of the crazy runs already showing where storms that start NW of us get forced under by the blocking. Now if the blocking isn't as extreme then the PAC faults become a problem. 1962 is just one example of how this kind of blocking can work without PAC help.
  10. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    CAPE and BOB I am doing this one time for dumb and dumber up there and everyone else that pulls this same crap out every freaking year so from now on all we have to do is link or copy this post... " It can get below freezing in march very easily. Get a good storm track with a normal type of cold high to the north and it snows with ease. It can be 50 the day before and after. " " No, it's not "big cold". It's the mechanics of the atmosphere at work that you are completely overlooking. March warmth is shallow most of the time. It's very common to get sub freezing 925s and 850s in march but on a sunny day it hits 50 with ease. Take away the sun and add evap cooling and wet bulbing and it gets cold enough for snow. Were you not here yesterday? " Those from Bob sum up the issue here in a nutshell but just to make this crystal clear...here are some factual statistics to back this up and put this stupid argument that comes up every damn year to bed once and for all I am using Baltimore for these averages because honestly DCA is not indicative of much of this area...and I fully admit getting snow at DCA is difficult any time of year and even worse in March...so if you live on an island in the middle of the Potomac south of DC then you probably aren't getting much snow in March...but you also probably aren't getting much snow ANY FREAKING TIME OF THE YEAR... The average high in Baltimore today is 46. The average high in early March is 49 and rises to 53 by March 15th. Not a crazy difference... so lets start with the temperatue anomaly for yesterday when it was snowing here WOW that looks so impressive...NOT. And from range on an ensemble where many members will differ on the timing on specific storms or cold shots and that anomaly wouldn't even show up at all as weak as it was. Yea by March we need a slightly colder anomaly but not by that much. If that was enough to snow yesterday then stop acting like we need some blue ball of death to get snow. If the warmth is shallow as it often is and Bob pointed out, it can easily snow with just the right storm track during an otherwise warmish period. Blocking significantly increases the chances of that said "good storm track" and that is what has us excited. Not the prospect of some bitter cold wave. So what does the 850 temp anomaly look like...which is more important because as we already established a shallow boundary level warm layer will easily be overcome by the cooling processes during precipitation. That is about as good a look as we could possibly want right now. Might not win but we couldn't draw up a better looking map. Those anomalies at that range are plenty cold enough. Especially if you factor in the members that are warm skewing things on any given day. If the colder members are correct it will trend even colder. If they are wrong none of this matters. Finally...historical evidence to support what we are talking about These are not all the March snows obviously but just some of the best examples of what we are talking about here. In 1924 it was 75 degrees on 3-30 then 38 with 9.4" of snow on April 1. In 1942 from 3-28 to 3-30 the highs were 47,36, and 54 and there was 22" of snow during the period. 1943 from 3-16 to 2-26 the high temps looked like this 72,67,67,67,67,67,46,44,48,61,68,73 somewhere in there was 6" of snow...but would you guess looking at the temperatures? 1964 between 3-9 and 3-25 the temps looked like 79,77,67,42,49,50,41,47,50,63,74 and somewhere in there was 11.5" 1965 on 3-16 and 3-17 it was 59 and 39 degrees and 4.3" fell 1968 from 3-9 to 3-12 high temps were 75, 57, 55, and 41 and 4.4" fell 1976 there was a week in February with record highs in the upper 70s then from 3-5 to 3-9 temps were 83,64,60,51,42 and 7.8" of fell 2009 it was 65 on 2-27 and 3 days later 5.8" fell and it was 53 the day it started. 2014 3-15 it was 66 degrees and 3-16 45 degrees and that an 8" snowstorm started that evening Those are all facts... things that HAVE happened in history. None of those March snowstorms had arctic cold periods and most of them featured very warm days right before and after snow. Many of them the day's it snowed recorded highs in the 40s. So you can keep arguing that we can't snow in March without some crazy cold anomaly but history says you are wrong.
  11. February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2

    In march 1976 it was in the 70s a couple days before and after a 6-12" snowstorm across our area. That's not the only example but it might be the best since that was a crappy Niña year too. Your post has no factual support to back it up. Just your typical nonsense. I find it hard to believe your as ignorant as you pretend to be you're probably just trolling.
  12. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    I'm still buzzing from the eagles winning the super bowl so I'll be fine.
  13. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Yep...sucks when a loss comes in one of the few chances at a legit snow in a crap year but it is what it is. Can't change it. Have to laugh at it and move on.
  14. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Yea we're really getting screwed by this one. Reports of 3" north of us in pa and doing good south too. I knew there was going to be a gap just hoped we wouldn't end up in it.