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psuhoffman

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About psuhoffman

  • Birthday 08/01/1978

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KTHV
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Manchester, MD

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  1. psuhoffman

    2018 Mid Atlantic Lawn/Garden/Pool Thread

    Zucchini, snap peas, and raspberries are doing well this year
  2. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    I don't disagree with the east based point but I don't think that's been missed at all. We have had several posts pointing out how we are rooting for a modoki event. Those are almost always good. East based weak to moderate ninos can go either way. Some are duds. Some have been good. But west based is by far better. Right now the jury is still out. There are some predictions of a west based event. But we won't know for sure how this evolves until the fall.
  3. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    I don't want to dredge up old business, just discussing, but that's part of Nina climo too and it's been pointed out before. I can't find it att but there was a Nina snowfall wrt climo map that shows the greatest negative departure is centered right over D.C. with higher probabilities of better snow wrt mean all around us. I can remember several ninas like that in my lifetime. So I guess that didn't shock me or phase me either. It makes sense too. Typical Nina pattern. Fast northern stream. Weak Stj. So northern stream systems race along and have trouble digging or phasing so they stay north with their main impact. Southern stream systems can impact to our south but get suppressed by the northern stream. And if something does phase its too late and hits east of us. Mountains eat the clippers from the west. It's logical. So I don't act surprised when it happens.
  4. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    I guess it depends what expectations were and what evidence each person was looking at. I know both of the last two years by mid summer I was fairly pessimistic. After some teases in the spring the sst patterns had begun to degrade by now and signs of a Nina to some degree was showing imo. By early fall most were down on the prospects of a good winter and I know around September or October most in the winter thread were saying we had to hope to get lucky. I posted some analogs that were fairly ugly around then too. There was a brief moment of optimism when the AO looked like it might tank late November but when that turned out to be transient I know myself and bob both reverted to pessimism. I just don't like to dwell on it and make it worse so when things look bad I expect it to suck and then hope for the best. There were some sources that were using some different metrics to predict a cold snowier winter so it's fair to say there were other perspectives. I just know that overall ninas suck here 80% of the time so I don't set myself up for disappointment expecting a fluke. Hope for it but don't expect it. Plus some sources (JB) I've learned to just disregard as biased. But depending on what people were paying attention too I guess others might have been more optimistic and that maybe led to their dispair. eta: one thing last winter really drove home was the importance of the nao to snow in a Nina. Going back through every post 1950 Nina there was only one 4" snow event without a -nao and other then that EVERY snowfall greater then 3" had some blocking help. Last year we finally got one good snowfall when there was blocking. The numbers are overwhelming. If we have a Nina unless we get nao help it's not going to snow.
  5. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    It was bad but the signs it was likely going to be bad were there at this point both years. I guess my "issue" with all the wailing the last 2 years was that we knew going in given the sst patterns that it was unlikely to be a good winter and snow would be scarce. But people were so whiny about it they practically ruined what snow we did get for themselves. When it's a Nina I just set my bar at "it's gonna SUCK" and then am happy with whatever scraps we get. I reserve my total meltdowns for years like 2002 when we had high expectations and then got virtually nothing. People expecting some big miller a snowbomb in a Nina were unrealistic and annoying when it didn't happen. There are ways this could go wrong. We are far from me getting excited yet. But things look way better now then leading into the last few winters when we were staring at a super Nino and 2 ninas at this point. I'll take the look now and roll with it over those anyday.
  6. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    It can easily go wrong. Either the sst pattern shifts or we just get unlucky. Not every good pattern necessarily produces. But I would much rather be where we are now then where we were att the last few years.
  7. psuhoffman

    Drought

    You're welcome. As for deer my wife knows a trick using Irish spring soap. Seems the deer don't like the smell. She puts it up at the corners and they have not been a problem.
  8. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    Ironically we have the best set up for a good winter in years att but I think people are just still being guarded after the last couple duds.
  9. psuhoffman

    Winter 2018-19 Is Coming

    Never too early to dream.
  10. psuhoffman

    2018 Mid Atlantic Lawn/Garden/Pool Thread

    So there is no exact answer because the type of soil, temperature, sun angle and strength and grass type impacts this. But MOST of the time a lawn can go almost a month without water. But it can range from 3-5 weeks. My lawn is showing signs of trouble in spots but I have almost 3 acres and I just can't do anything about it. I'll overseed or reseed in the fall or spring if necessary. I might try to water this week if no rain comes right around my porch and pool in the typically used areas but the rest is on its own. If you have a more manageable sized lawn I would recommend giving it a deep water or two so it survives if we don't get rain soon.
  11. psuhoffman

    Drought

    More recent pic...I need to catch up on weeding but have a 2 month old and I've been working long hours helping run a summer learning program.
  12. psuhoffman

    Drought

    I put a fence up around the garden. I lived the bottom foot with chicken fence to keep the smaller vermin out and then tucked the fencing underground about 6" for a foot to keep groundhogs from burrowing under. I also build a cage with bird netting for the strawberries. We haven't had an issue with the other berries. You can see in the background the strawberry cage. These are old from right after I finished laying out the garden and putting down the boxes and stone walkways. What is now the pumpkin patch is in the background.
  13. psuhoffman

    Drought

    Oh I know. I have a pretty large garden. Tomatoes, carrots, corn, peppers, raspberries, blueberries, watermelons, zucchini, green beans, snap peas, and 3 kinds of pumpkins. It's a pain when I have to water it all. But it's normal. There is a dry stretch almost every summer. Also sucks for my 2 acre lawn but there is nothing I can do about it. No way I am wasting that much water and overusing my well pump. Just have to hope it recovers when the rain comes again.
  14. psuhoffman

    Drought

    Typical cyclical patterns continue. We had a very wet spring. Now we are have a very typical summer dry spell that happens often. Some keep looking at qpf over too small timeframes to draw meaningful conclusions.
  15. psuhoffman

    Drought

    Don't feed the animals.
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