Jump to content

psuhoffman

StormMode Moderator
  • Content count

    13,188
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    2003/4 wasn’t a nino. 2004/5 was.
  2. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    But are those the top 5 wettest falls? Or just the top 5 wettest falls in that subset of years with wet summers? And some of those wet years just outside the top 5 were snowy. And there is a decent chance that any random 5 years would all be below 20” snowfall. Correlation does not equal causality. So I cannot say that there isn’t causality. But that small correlation in no way proves it does. It does show a wet fall isn’t a sign of a snowy winter though. One of my degrees is sociology and I used statistics a lot for that. I also had to get certified in economics and needed statistics for that. Plus I took statistics for meteorology before switching majors.
  3. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Hopefully with the fv3 by the time we’re done tracking this year it will already be picking up on next years threats!!! Maybe we can have a debate in the summer of exactly which season the fv3 day 10 snow belongs.
  4. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    When you use a dependent variable that only happens about 30% of the time (above avg snowfall) along with an independent variable with a sample size of 5...you have absolutely no statistical significance. Chances are high you got that result from random chance.
  5. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Watch out for April ice storms!!!
  6. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    The real threat still looks good
  7. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    I love nice weather But It’s warm 90% of the time for 6 months. It’s not rare. It’s not something I need to worry about. We will get plenty of warm nice days. Snow is way more rare. But you know that your just trolling.
  8. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    It’s going to keep it just close enough to tease us right to the end.
  9. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    We’re not close to done. Still have this to track. with the new FV3 we could be doing this to July.
  10. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    I thought it moved the wrong way. 12z had more energy hanging back like the euro. Yea the storm ended up suppressed but it was a better storm. This run was more just a wave on the front. No one is getting a big storm from that. It took a step towards seeing some flakes but away from the setup for a big storm.
  11. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Lol he is so full of sheet
  12. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    As long as there’s still one...
  13. psuhoffman

    March Banter 2019

    I know but I can't. Family obligations. I had literally 5/6 weeks that I could go...and this one was the only one I can't...and so far 3 of the 5 are gone and this weekend was the ONLY one that the weather looked good for a ski trip. I have 2 more shots...the next 2 weekends and if both suck I will be pretty upset that the only weekend out of 6 I couldn't go was the only one that snowed up there. I don't need snow either... I will take warm also... just not cold/dry or rainy. Warm/dry or snow are both fine.
  14. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Yea but this isn't even your region. Not that your contributions to the NYC thread are all that wonderful but at least they belong there. Furthermore, you typically just parrot something someone else said OR make an observation EVERYONE can see. You don't add any analysis. AND often what you said is WRONG. The little bit of snow SNE gets is from the frontal wave. The actual system that we are watching as a threat goes SOUTH of us and is squashed...gives some snow to southern VA. So again why are you here?
  15. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    ICON stays in the euro camp. NOVA bullseye
  16. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    I do think there is some "persistent" themes within patterns. The problem though is you never know when that is going to change...so it works until it doesn't. You are basically guaranteed to eventually bust bad simply using persistence. So it's definitely a good idea to factor in recent trends and learn from each scenario and apply it to the next...it has to be mixed in with synoptic analysis of each individual event also.
  17. Bringing this over here from the mid atlantic forum since it applies to many in here also.
  18. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    Regarding the EPS/GEFS diferences around our day 6-7 system, the euro is swinging the NS trough through ahead of the southern feature and leaving way more energy behind. That creates a nice setup here... The NS comes in ahead and supplies the cold and creates confluence to our north... while there is enough energy coming in behind to track a system under us. But the GFS/GEFS/FV3 keys on the northern stream...leaves almost nothing behind and so it drives a low to our north and then simply drags a cold front through behind. On the one hand the euro MIGHT be playing into its bias of leaving energy behind here. BUT... most of the secondary guidance agrees more with the euro progression. GEPS is probably the most supportive... while the GEFS at the same time has nothing The NAVGEM and UKMET are also in the euro camp with having separation between the two features and leaving enough behind to develop a storm, the ICON is kind of in between the two. Keep in mind that even if we get the euro progression that does not mean we get a snowstorm. The storm could still end up too warm, it is late March. It could also end up suppressed. So even getting the euro look isn't any guarantee of anything. But we have to figure out the basic synoptic progression before we can even begin to worry about details like that. ATT I would favor the euro progression...slightly, over the GFS.
  19. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    That is true lately, but then there are years like 2003, 2010, 2014, 2015... when guidance was less snowy from range then reality. It cuts both ways...but it does seem more often than not when we are in our typical sucky climo years go with the least snowy model is the wining formula.
  20. psuhoffman

    The March Long Range Discussion Thread, Winter's Last Stand

    I think we need to turn our attention to April. This comes from a storm April 2-3 LOL I mean were due for an April HECS right? Kidding aside EPS continues to scatter hits across our area next week. 6Z GEFS, on the other hand, completely lost the threat. Keys on the northern stream feature and cuts a lot to the lakes and then simply a dry frontal passage. Model war right now. Before people assume the euro wins this, the GFS actually has won a couple of these disputes lately...or at least the final compromise solution was closer to the GFS than the Euro... and the GFS agreed with the euro yesterday and now has diverged. Not saying I favor the GFS att...but those 2 factors make this a more difficult choice than just saying...Euro is King.
  21. This might be my perspective being used to posting in the mid-atlantic forum...plus I live right along the border between the two forums so I am the southeastern EDGE of your region. About 7 days ago super long range guidance had "teased" the mid Atlantic (DC/Baltimore) area with snow solutions from this storm. Then for a while the guidance started to squash the storm completely. I was kind of explaining why now that it has trended back towards a storm it also became wet vs white. A week ago when it was teasing with a chance of snow the evolution was different. That initial upper level low swinging through the midwest was diving into the trough and phasing with the STJ over the southeast and pulling the NS into the system... Basically the NS was phasing into the STJ system and bombing the whole thing to our southeast. What is actually happening now is a third piece of energy from the NS is diving into the lakes...and both the midwest upper energy and the STJ energy over the southeast are being pulled up and phasing into that. The phase is happening way further north then those runs that teased snow for the DC area a long time ago. So its the same storm, sorta, but the evolution is completely different. The key energy over the lakes that ended up bringing this back wasn't even on the radar 5 days ago. It might still work out for places further north...the NW half of this forum northward, for instance, but its a crap setup for the southeast part of this region and all of the mid atlantic region...and for the coastal northeast for that matter.
×