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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. @Maestrobjwa in the last 50 years... Years with above normal snowfall at BWI by decade 2010s: 4 2000s: 2 1990s: 2 1980s: 3 1970s: 3 Avg years per decade above avg snowfall = 2.8 There is a 73% of below normal snowfall in any given individual year just based on random chance. But the truth is we have about a 75% chance of above avg snow if it is either a modoki or a moderate to strong nino year. And all other years including non modoki weak nino's we have about a 15% chance of above normal and 85% chance of below normal snowfall. That's our climo. Set your expectations accordingly.
  2. Why are you upsetting yourself in April over something that may or may not happen next year in which you have absolutely no control over? Also, I posted data a few months ago that showed the Nina hate is over blown. Yes Nina’s are worse than the avg. But that’s because modoki ninos skew the mean upward. In the last 40 years Nina’s are actually no worse (and actually slightly better) than any enso phase other than modoki Nino. Truth is only modoki ninos give us a good chance of an above avg snow season. EVERY other year (which is like 90% of them) gives us equally likely chances of a below avg snow season. In summary about 1-2 times a decade we get a modoki Nino and those are almost always big snow years. The other 8-9 years are mostly below avg with every so often one lucky year where some other enso phase year flukes into an above avg snow season. Basically just expect below avg snow every year then be really happy the 2-3 times a decade we get lucky and above avg.
  3. I think the problem is the standard anomaly deviates from the linear regression mean and so we can expect a normal hemispheric response with fluctuations in the zonal phase of the oscillations.
  4. It was the first coop that came up for his zip. Wouldn’t change much. Several of those 50s must have been upper 50s when the avg high was ~60 early in the month. Saying that based on what the numbers at the coop I saw were and unlikely to be that far off. Overall it was running about normal before that 2 day cold snap. Right now it’s slightly below and projected to be back to normal or slightly above by next week if the forecast is correct. It’s been a pretty avg April overall. There were a few anomalously warm and cold days but most days fell within a standard deviation of normal. There were really only 4 truly anomalously cold days but it felt like more maybe because we spend a week talking about the cold before it started both times. I remember getting a chuckle about people complaining about the cold 4 days away when it was nice out as they wrote that.
  5. People can feel however they want. I was just pointing out that according to the actual numbers it’s been pretty typical. But that has nothing to do with feelings. If someone expected wall to wall 70s then sure it’s been horrible. I’d argue that’s unrealistic but whatever. That’s each persons prerogative how to feel.
  6. Another possible perceptive bias is because of how we analyze in here. We’ve really had two cold snaps that each lasted 48-72 hours but if you spend a week obsessing over it before it even arrives it can feel a lot longer.
  7. True. But it’s a little unrealistic to expect spring to be wall to wall normal to above normal days. Our normal high to start spring is still in the 50s and doesn’t reach 70 until the very end of April. We’ve had a pretty typical temperature distribution and yet some are acting like it’s been awful. It seems like they expect April to have typical May temperatures.
  8. Maybe the problem is we’ve become so used to months that are 90% above normal that when we get a typical month we perceive it as cold. Dunno. Take right now…it’s absolutely gorgeous out and will be most of the next week…I’m not going to stress that there’s a few cold miserable days showing up on guidance way out. If we get a few cold days after a week of gorgeous warmth and it warns up again after a few days so what? By the grace of god I can survive a couple cold days. So far spring has been a 50/50 mix of nice and chilly days but it seems like some are focused way more on the 50% chilly days.
  9. April daily highs at Winchester coop station 80s: 1 70s: 6 60s: 2 50s: 9 40s: 2 8 days more than 3* above normal 4 days within 3* of normal 8 days more than 3* below normal.
  10. @HighStakes any snow mixing in right now under that band? I’m not home right now.
  11. We will have a couple beautiful days before the threat of the back door front either way. I just don’t get the focus on the not nice days. Everyone is totally entitled to feel how they want. But I really don’t get it. We’ve had so many gorgeous days in the last month. We have a couple more coming in the not so distant future. But there is so much complaining about the minority cruddy days. Is the expectation that every spring day be sunny and 70? Besides we really need it to rain a bit now or we will be in big trouble come the dry stretches in summer.
  12. Hang in there. Wed will be 60, Thurs 65 and Friday 70-75.
  13. This actually wasn’t a perfect synoptic setup. The coastal is developing pretty late and tracking on the western edge of what’s likely to produce snow in DC even in winter. The upper low is also tracking further NW than ideal. However, given the anomalously cold airmass if you transcribe the same setup into winter and it would have been a god storm but still better NW then in the cities. But had the surface low developed a little further south and had this been overnight I think this airmass was anomalously cold to see some slushy accumulation even into the metro areas. Alas it didn’t all come together. Shame because it’s rare to even get the chance to see snow this late. It takes both a rare once a decade type April cold airmass and for a perfect synoptic setup. We got 1 and almost the other.
  14. But then isn’t the bigger issue simply that there is a storm Monday? Even if we were in a warmer pattern it’s not going to be 75 in mid April during a rain storm. The cold pattern everyone is lamenting means 42 and rain instead of 52 and rain but it wasn’t going to be 75 during a rainstorm in any pattern this time of year. That’s how I choose to look at it and it makes the “cold April” patterns much more bearable. It will be in the 60s and pushing 70 again as soon as the storm is gone.
  15. Yea when it’s 40 and rain/snow mix it will suck. But if it was 50 and raining would it change your reality that much? Were you going to be outside during the rain if the temp was more seasonal?
  16. Even up in northern New England where they’ve had some snow the next day even with a NW flow under a -NAO it’s been 70 degrees. It’s impossible to ignore how warm things are skewed.
  17. I don’t engage with the “oh no April is ruined” thing anymore. First of all this happens almost every year lately yet some people still act like this is not normal. And it seems exaggerated. Our avg high is still only ~60 to start April and ~72 to end it. It’s not supposed to be in the 70s everyday in April. Yea when it’s raining it can be pretty miserable during a -NAO April (48 and rain sucks) but who cares it’s raining we probably wouldn’t be doing outside activities anyways. When it’s sunny even in a cold pattern it’s going to get close to 60 by mid April. Next week Wed/Thurs will be in the 60s! And I bet we get a day close to 70 by next weekend somewhere. I dont get it when ppl act like a few days in the 50s ruins the whole month or act like a 60 degree sunny day is somehow awful.
  18. No. Latest snow I ever got was early May
  19. The first pic is looking southeast towards town. I’m on top of a ridge a couple miles northwest of Manchester looking down on the town.
  20. All true but I have a morbid curiosity to see how long he can continue to play at this level.
  21. Also think a lot of the snow west of the blue ridge was upslope lake enhanced and that stuff has no water content and melts or sublimates the instant sun hits it.
  22. Snowshoe had 7”. Skiing was good. Kids had a great time. Most snow I saw anywhere this weekend was my yard though. Driving back I expected mostly bare ground. Snow was mostly melted even up near Snowshoe today. Yet I returned to full snowcover even on the south side of my yard.
  23. @Ji on the way to snowshoe tonight I drove through that shadow effect zone you pointed out on guidance last night. In Petersburg and Seneca Rocks WV in the valley just east of the Allegheny front there was no snow at all, not even an inch! 6”+ on the ridges east and west but nothing in that valley. That valley continues up into central PA. When I was at Penn State in the late 90s there was a storm that did that to Tyrone PA in that valley just SW of State College. It was a general 8-14” across the area but Altoona to Tyrone in that valley had like 1-2”. Just imagine living there…
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