psuhoffman

You still here...

Sure. I took Stephen fishing up at Codorus SP a couple times last summer. I’m no expert but we got a few bites. He was excited to catch his first fish.

.4 should be ~6” up here and that’s sweet. Don’t care what happens south of me if I get 5-6”. Hope you get a foot. I’m not like Ji I don’t need to be the jack every time. It’s more about meeting or beating expectations going in and at least covering the ground.

This won’t be your only one this season. But enjoy. First is always the best.

Very light snow starting here. 29/15. Ready for my fringing!!!

Ouch! I'm ok with getting 4" when DC gets 6-8 but that would really hurt.

This is all just from observation but it doesn't seem to be any better in the long range and jumps around as bad as the old gfs (but that's not really the main goal of op models) but once into medium range it's been more consistent and it handles the thermal structure of synoptic systems way better. Just my 2 cents.

12z gfs....not sure how to say it but it brings alot of weather This is going to be a lot of fun...right through into March me thinks.

Yea that's my take too. The pattern the next 10 days is dependent on the tpv location and where the boundary sets up. Rain is a risk for any system that amps up to our west if that tpv isn't pressing enough. But it can work and its active looking. After that as the atl ridge retrogrades into a more classic west based block we should see a more typical snow vs no type setup ala 2010. But if we can score a couple times before then and then get that type of pattern in Feb...!!! That's how we can make a run at the kind of winter that might even make the "I need snow in December" crew happy. ...Naw who am I kidding

@Bob Chill remember the other day when we were discussing how the guidance kept adjusting to our west? That trend continued and is accounting for much of our improvements. The track was always perfect but a couple days ago the models were washing out the upper energy so much it did no good by the time it got here. There is some degradation of the snowfall to our west as there is much less precipitatable water there but the upper feature is holding together more and more and so as it passes over us and enters the more favorable environment near the coast it's able to fire up some additional banding. Trend is our friend here. Really looks nice down your way. I'm fringed up here!

When is the pattern changing?

He was trying to figure out how to put a negative spin on the 12z runs but when he saw the nam his head exploded Clayton Bigsby style!

I have them saved, at least the mean snow maps. The analogs were a mix of hecs and some more moderate storms like the January 2004 one with very few duds so they were trying to say this had more upside than guidance was giving it. That said the cips analogs won't see details specific to each setup. In this case the upper pattern was de amplifying more than most of those analogs. In the end a compromise between the analogs and what the guidance was showing ended up best and I've found that's often how it goes. If the guidance is way off it won't usually go all the way to the analogs but it usually trends towards them in the end. Did we decide not to punt January?

Welcome to my ignore list!

Eagles made a 61 yard fg to beat the Giants last year! So your saying it's definitely gonna happen!

Funny I was going to say the rgem looked odd for Maryland with the long dry slot then coastal redevelopment even up here but the icon is doing the same. It's what's left of the h5 low making a perfect pass in conjunction with just enough moisture transport from the coastal to create that little banding feature over is. Interesting wrinkle if other guidance shows that.

It keeps tightening up the northern edge such that even though it looks much better the last couple runs for D.C. it hasn't improved at all along the PA line.

Unfortunately with the war being shown across guidance I would favor rain att. But get a well placed vort there or nudge the PV southeast a tad and suddenly we're in business. But man the look towards feb keeps moving closer to the epic weeklies and seasonal guidance look.

I will take the bet you see more than that at some point in the next 2 months...

did someone say something? Thought I heard this annoying buzzing sound.... guess not.

Where did snowstorm5921 go?

so that got your attention? lol Perhaps there is still more variance left to this than we were thinking.

@frd The way he worded it sounded more negative than it really was. In essence he was only (in a much more technical way) reiterating the progression we have been discussing for a while. After this weekend there will be a pullback in the pattern to an average looking one with some good and bad features as the transition period takes place. We discussed the coming rise in the SOI before another crash which is related to and coincides with a possible weak/fast traverse of the warm mjo phases. The January 20th period is variable based on the pacific. There is a risk that becomes a rainstorm if it times up poorly with the transition in the trough/ridge alignment out west. There is the risk the trough digs into the central US initially. But we all see how the pattern evolves after January 22. So it is very possible we don't score something by then...but the core of this has always looked to be after that. These threats before then are kind of a bonus during the transition period. I think our best chance for a significant snowstorm or several of them... will be the very end of January and February. That seems to be what he is saying...in a nutshell.

There is enough of an easterly surface wind component that the App shred effect shouldn't be too extreme. This won't be one of those times where the mountains totally eat up all the moisture when the moisture feed is weak sauce and there is a SW surface flow.

He keeps bringing up persistence when we are in the second winter season in a row that featured about as extreme a pattern flip as you will ever see...and in his case it lead to 40" in March last year.