psuhoffman

The block on the gfs sets up too Far East. Great block...just need it near Greenland not out in the Atlantic.

Not me

All the pondering seems to give me bare grass. Lol that h5 chart is misleading. There has been above normal height near Greenland a lot but it’s been the most useless ridging possible. Not a real block. The last 5 days we had a real NAO block but it was weak and is breaking down about 24 hours too soon to help with Tuesday. It did help destroy the war so it got us in the game. Without it we would be warm still early next week with no hope at all like this week. It had an impact but it wasn’t strong or long enough to offset the -pna. Most of the time the NAO ridge wasn’t even that good. It was just a northern extension of a mid latitude war ridge. As soon as the next wave came it would retreat only to reload. It wasn’t “blocking” the flow at all and so was useless. Not all red there is the same for our snow chances. I’m keeping this simple. Soi tanking. Mjo going into cold phases. Those 2 have been running the pattern all winter. It’s taking longer than we want but that’s been the MO all year too. The mjo took FOREVER in warm phases remember. Maybe it comes too late. The timing is still better then last year if it comes around feb 20-25. This time we don’t need to wait for cold to establish in NAM. There is cold around. Last year the pattern flipped Feb 25 but it took 10+ days to get enough cold into the east to have real legit threats. This time it’s game on as soon as we get storms to track under us. Cold around. isn’t a problem.

@Ji thibgs are moving frustratingly slow but unlike mid January they are still progressing the way I want to see. It will suck to get right for early March but it is what it is. I’m in salvage mode now. We can go on some nice runs in March. We have lately! I’ll sacrifice Feb 15-22 if this is what it looks like after!

Yea I’ll get there tomorrow but I’m not yet to the point of “lowered expectations” lol

I think most would accept rain...but they want a scenario where there is snow on the ground when the storm ends. There is a huge difference between 1-3” followed by 1” of 40 degree rain and 4-5” followed by freezing rain and then some light rain and 34 degrees. One ends with soggy grass and one ends with a nice thick 2-3” glacier.

I posted a study published last year a week ago that said exactly that. @Ji the problem is the mjo progress has been slowing the last 2 weeks. First some expected the last wave to just continue into 8. I kind of never got on board that so I was debbing early Feb. Then the next wave was supposed to immediately initiate and go into 8...and I kind of did jump on that. That would have targeted a flip around feb 15-20. But again it’s stalled. It comes out and does a slow loop through 7 before getting to 8 late on the gfs and geps and on the euro dies back into null before actually gaining amplitude into 1. They aren’t as far apart as the charts look it’s actually the way they key on different conflicting convection waves. But the bottom line is they have both stalled getting a clear strong beneficial mjo signal to day 10 now. Add in the lag and ugh. Plus the latest stall makes it clear the mjo really hates phase 8/1/2 this year. I suppose it opens the possibility we are being duped again and it never really goes on a tour of those phases. I don’t think that yet. Guidance all strongly takes it into 8/1 but frustratingly slow. If in the next couple days we see a trend towards either a loop back to 7 or into null I will concede the mjo just hates us and it’s probably over. I’m not there now Finally the soi crash is progressing. Looks to really tank in 2-3 days and stay severely negative through the next 2 weeks. That should support the mjo moving towards more typical nino phases like 8-2. Finally...regarding Furtado’s study that 8 isn’t as good in a ssw year. That would argue that a ssw early in a nino is a bad thing. Maybe it did screw us. First there is a correlation between early season sswe and high amp warm phase mjo. So that puzzle piece killed a big chunk of early winter. And now there is evidence the sswe muted the benefits of a phase 8 mjo...when that is the main benefit of a nino since phases 8/1 match up with typical modoki nino forcing. So if those phases become less favorable basically a sswe early in a nino makes a nino less beneficial. Ain’t that a kick in the nads!

That’s been my story and I’m sticking too, but would like to see more signs guidance is moving that way. good luck with the precip, that problem would Far eclipse our petty snow issues!

Yea I was just going along with the tone Ji and Leesburg seem to be trying to establish. I don’t put much weight in the gefs right now anyways.

Agreed but the soi is about to tank and the mjo goes unti high amplitude 8/1 which correlate to a deep eastern trough yet the long range guidance wants to keep a SE ridge. That’s the part that has me confused.

It looks extremely negative day 3 on to me.

6z gefs brought back the SE ridge lol

What are you talking about

We sound idiotic every time we post something like the last line you wrote Saying what the euro shows isn’t a prediction

Lol. What’s your take long term? Why does the trough want to get stuck out west on guidance despite every favorable tele to a trough in the east?

This week doesn’t bother me much. Phase 6/7 isn’t a good look. This is about what should happen. I’ve tried not to deb on it when models were spitting out pretty snow maps and people wanted to believe but I never had much hope before the 20th. But if we get phase 8/1 and a -soi and the trough stays out west and we get cutters the following week, hide all the cute furry animals!!!

But 3-4 days ago most guidance kept the wave under us. Look at that gfs I posted above. At the time euro and fv3 agreed. People are saying that now because as the look started to degrade they began to cling to what snow options were left and for a time the hope of some frontrunning waa wave was all they had. But the problem with that is nothing can amplify into the ridge so a weak wave will wash out. A strong one will cut. It’s just a bad upper level pattern. We can luck our way to 1-2” in any pattern in mid winter. I don’t even waste my time on identifying patterns for that. But the look next week is flat awful for anything of significance. But Ralph loves a -epo-pna gradient pattern so there’s that!!!

EPS looks fine. Disappointing slightly that it still doesn’t want to progress the trough east. It’s cold in general day 10-15 but with the ridge there the threat of cutters exists. Does have a signal for something frozen day 10-15.

I want this back... But now we have... unfortunately the upper level pattern supports the second solution there. I can’t find any analogs with significant warning level snowfalls with a west based -epo, -pna without major blocking or a displaced Tpv. The upper air analogs to this week were really bad. No real snowstorms near the dates for any of them. Best in the lot were a couple nuessance 1” slop events. I don’t know why from range models like to push the boundary too far south in a -epo/-pna pattern but they do. General rule if there isn’t a strong block, a displaced tpv to our north, or the epo isn’t centered into western Canada, storms will adjust NW and the favored track is cutting to the lakes.

Better???? 12z op 0z op 12z eps 0z eps

I don’t have access to the 18z eps only the op.

Why no 18z euro update??? Trended north more. Pretty much nothing south of 70. Tight gradient north of there. 3-4” right along the PA line. That looks to get washed away by a deluge.

I’m going to roam the Earth like Caine...looking for snow.

18z gefs was a better run imo.

It fell back in line. The eps tanks the NAO around day 8 and holds it through the run. Weeklies and cfs holds it into March. Gfs lost it at 12z and brought it back 18z. I said after 12z I’m not reacting to one gefs run unless the eps follows. Gefs has a severe issue with being jumpy because it’s not dispersed enough. At times the op euro scores higher at day 10. That’s pathetic! They need to fix that with the next major upgrade or else the ncep package is of limited usefulness at range. Overall the -NAO is moving closer in time. It’s down to about 8 days away now. It went pretty negative the last few days which sets up the 50/50 but it breaks down too quickly and so our threat Tuesday is degrading.