psuhoffman

Euro says yea. Gefs fools around in 7 then goes into 8 late. But I think the gfs is having issues with how it’s measuring the mjo. Look at where the convection is centered for phases 8/1 now look at the gefs using the chi chart to estimate convection this looks like 8 then 1 to me. the gefs and eps aren’t actually far off on the wave progression but the gfs seems to be getting some kind of false signal somehow that is throwing off its graphical representation of the mjo. That’s my opinion. Both have a similar pattern day 8-15 now also. The only fly in the ointment is the se ridge but both somehow say it’s gonna snow anyways. The gefs beats down the ridge even more than the eps now and has quite a few southeast hecs solutions. The soi also looks to tank starting tomorrow through the run. About as negative a look as I’ve ever seen at times. Everything seems to be still on track imo.

You are north of DC. Even Philly a se ridge is bad 90% of the time but for DC it’s 99%. There are rare exceptions when you can survive one. PD2 was one of those. This pattern with 50/50s along with a se ridge is such an example where it “could” work but it’s still better if that ridge is gone. Anything that doesn’t time up perfectly will get to cut with a se ridge. NYC and New England can survive a west track jump to the coast. Philly sometimes. Dc rarely.

Ralph seems to think we live in New England. But the gefs also thinks the se ridge isn’t a problem. Snow mean went down some because a lot of members miss us to the south with a hecs lol Given the trends lately that look doesn’t bother me.

6z euro took a slight step back.

I'm not buying this phase 8 se ridge ssw bs....I think in a few days we will be seeing less se ridge on future runs. Even if that furtado study is right it only shifts the phases about 1 phase. We are heading towards 1 by day 10-15 anyways. I agree the guidance will shift towards less ridge soon.

We will see. The soi has gone negative and it looks to really crash bigly over the next few days. There has been no delay or degradation of that this time. One of the big “uh ohs” that turned me sour back in January was when I saw the soi start to trend back positive along with the sudden move if the mjo back to phase 4. That was a “Houston we have a problem” moment. This time the soi crash and mjo wave unti 8/1 seems real. On a side note according to that Furtado’s study when the strat is weak it shifts the mjo phase response back a phase. So if that’s true instead of the mjo becoming favorable the second half of 7 into 8 its 8 into 1. That might explain why the se ridge lingers. Still the mjo looks like 8/1 heading to 1 on the chi charts by days 10-15.

That’s a pretty big increase for long range on eps. If you take away the snow from the next few days it’s an increase of 4-5” across the area south to north. That’s a bit more than 12z and about as much an increase as you will ever see on the back half of the eps due to spread at that range. Eps doesn’t have the follow the leader issue of the gefs at long leads so storms will be shotgun all over past day 7 making it very hard for anyone to get a huge snow increase in that range. Another thing I’ve been tracking...there were 17 members that missed us to the south with snow in the day 8-15 period. Up from 15 the last 2 runs. I count 18 flush hits during that period and about 9 others that give the DC area some snow day 8-15. There are some totally dry members and then a handful of straight cutter no where near us members. I cant imagine the se ridge is a big problem with 1/3 of the members suppressing storms south of us. Only reason the snow mean isn’t higher in NC is the surface temps are an issue in NC and some of those suppressed storms only put down a couple inches of snow there. The eps doesn’t do what the gefs does and count ice or marginal temps as snow. I know the ridge is there but either it’s baing exaggerated by outliers or it’s an example of a ridge with cold air stuck under it. The week of PD2 for instance looks like crap at h5. I would love to see that ridge kicked out of there but somehow the eps is saying it thinks it’s gonna snow days 8-15.

But what will DT do now??? seriously as much as he hugs the euro I’m shocked he bailed considering for a couple runs in a row the top eps analog was an example of a Seattle snowstorm a week before a big mid Atlantic snowstorm.

Before and a lot

Was good...but it missed the feb 20-28 window by a few days so toss it right!

Yoda does the UK still look "decent"?

lol that's no fun

@Bob Chill ok so the GFS sucks with CAD and so its way off on what the temps would actually look like given this setup but tell me this doesn't remind you of something....

Obviously I am not taking details on the op runs at this range seriously...but both the GGEM and GFS so far have seriously shifted the thermal boundary south behind that cutter. To the point they both wash out a wave that was a cutter last run. And the GFS implies the window might be more than just a couple days...its snowing into northern Alabama at 210 and 216. I have kind of felt that given the pacific forcing once that got into range the guidance would do exactly what it has been doing and adjust to it. Maybe we are seeing the first signs of that today? The pattern this week looks like a phase 7. SE ridge, cold centered to our NW. But phase 8, and this certainly looks like a phase 8 to me.... says the cold should press and overwhelm the CONUS including the east. I am kind of waiting to see the guidance flip to that all of a sudden. We will see...

ok next wave getting its act together and still not looking like a cutter pattern. Boundary is pretty suppressed and a lot of high pressure across the north. Having another franziskaner to get me through this deep analysis of the GFS op at 200 hours lol

Too much of a good thing...wave washes out lol

I'm bored so.... at 168 the GFS might be setting something up. Way less ridging in the plains as the next system ejects and the departing cutter has caved out a deeper trough to our north. Given the spacing and such it would be pretty hard for that next system to cut from where it is there.

I am torn on this. I was never on board because I just felt given the pattern the low to the west was likely to end up the dominant one and it would cut. So the "idea" 3-4 days ago of a wave getting under us was not likely. But the guidance has made that adjustment and now is trending colder with the CAD anyways. I still have a bad feeling I end up with bare grass when this is over...but the NAM is intriguing. Never gets my area above 33-34 degrees and so that would pretty much preserve the snow/sleet that falls. At those temps it can survive the rain and then freeze up into a glacier. Of course with another cutter right behind it...not sure why I even care. lol Back when it looked like it might get cold and stay cold behind this wave I think I got this silly idea in my head...and now I am irrationally holding on to it. As for whether the colder trend is correct... I have no idea. I would be lying if I said I had a gut feeling one way or another. The guidance is trending that way, but the pattern says not likely. There are not many examples of more than a nuisance snow with this kind of overall pattern. But exceptions happen. I think north of Baltimore will have a window until around 0z Monday and possibly until 3-6z towards PA to get snow and it will depend on banding and how much and how heavy the precip is during that time. We will see.

Cold blasts in on the 17th and we’re an icebox the rest of the way. 17th 20th 23rd 25th Blocking isn’t way out there either. Starts to develop ~the 17th and gets stronger to the end 17th 20th 25th

I get the hesitation. And I’m not going to make more out of it than it is. But the weenie looks are starting to pile up today and that’s how it needs to start if this is going to happen. We will know in.....(you know).

@C.A.P.E. holy crap did you see the 18z gefs? I thought 12z was a weenie run. It’s similar with the trough progression but this run it went crazy with blocking on top. I know it’s just one run and the gefs is jumpy as F but in the last 24 hours the good runs are starting to outnumber the bad ones again. And it’s right as the period we’ve been watching comes into range the guidance has “seen” better all winter.

I love that they give up on the day guidance starts to show real signs of getting good. Lol

But DT and Don just cancelled winter!!!

Oh thanks for reminding me. I still have a bone to pick with you about that “we don’t get 12” storms the last week of February” nonsense. First of all do you realize how rare those are? Baltimore has only had 20 12”+ snowstorms in recorded history. That’s an average of one every 7 years! Or 3 in a 20 year period. That’s way too small a sample size to get meaningful results of a snowfall distribution study. There are lots of weeks that haven’t had 12”+ storms. But Baltimore has had 3 10” storms that week. Those are rare too at only an average of 2 every 10 years! 11” February 21 1929. 10.8” February 20th 1947 and 10.1” February 23 1987. On top of that we have had a ton of warning events that week including a 6” snow in 2015 and a 5” storm in 2005. I know there was an 8” storm at bwi that week in 1966 that was probably more where you are because it was 10”+ northwest of the 95. We have had plenty of snow the last week of February just not an HECS but that’s true of lots of weeks and it’s just a statistical anomaly not a predictor. We have had 5 HECS storms within 48 hours of that week on either side!!! It’s just luck. Some weeks have had several 12”+ and some have had none. If anything it means we are due. Your worrying about nothing!!!!

Lol he is so specific though how many analogs does he leave himself?