psuhoffman

I was looking beyond that. The ridge goes crazy day 8-13 and the 50/50 is way too far northeast to help.

The pac is the main problem. But it wasn’t getting better until after the threat next week. What was creating that was an excellent 50/50 with just enough blocking. But what I think helped that along was several bombing systems to our northeast that deepened the 50/50 and pumped heights above it. As each failed to bomb that feature degraded and now the blocking it totally gone and the 50/50 is weaker and displaced northeast of where we need it so the ridge can go ape behind it. Now on top of that the pac changes after that are gone on the eps and degraded and delayed past the believable lead times on the gefs. There wasn’t anything good on any of the 0z guidance. No way to spin it as ok. Just hope it’s wrong is all I can say. On a side note, Furtado said phase 1 is bad in nino years with a sswe also. So if phases 7-8-1 all become bad and we already know 3-6 are awful...basically that implies a swe in a nino is a bad thing. I’m not saying I buy that, but if the benefits of central pac forcing (phase 8/1) is offset by a swe and that benefit is the main reason ninos are good...than a swe is bad. I don’t see any other way to interpret that. Most of the times we said a swe saved us it wasn’t a nino if I remember so maybe. Just throwing that out there.

The failure of any of the systems the next 5 days to bomb us hurting our chances next week. Leads to a further east weaker 50/50 and less suppression over the east. That allows the se ridge to go to town.

Not weird...stringer cutter suppressed saturday, weaker storm Saturday cannot suppress Sunday wave. It’s a legit option.

Im worried about a “not snow” trend. Details are unimportant.

It’s pretty crappy...precip is sliding ESE and weak sauce, that’s why temps are a problem.

It is odd the eps seems stuck on an idea that is out of line with the pacific forcing while the gefs goes right to the exorcised look. I suppose maybe there is a complex issue the eps can see but more likely it’s just wrong. People forget how often the eps is awful day 10+ also. Plus a minor error can have impacts that are exponential downstream. If the eps is erroneously dumping too much trough out west it will pump more se ridge which then shunts what does come east later further north muting the attempt at an NAO ridge. Change that a little and suddenly a chain reaction happens and we get the gefs look.

Snowstorm56244328564322 called to remind us e8 has a tremendous track record.

@Ji uh oh it’s going south!!!

It wins sometimes. Maybe 30%. If the Dolphins can beat the Patriots!!! In this case the gefs makes more sense. We will see.

Yea I’ve been trolling him with “scoreboard” type replies. Snow pics. Posted a nws lwx storm report. Irony is I like him more than most but I was bored and he was asking for it.

All it would take is a small se adjustment to all the features and it’s great. I bet with soi mjo favorable we get that adjustment. Look at what happened this week coming up.

Now DT claiming I only got 2-3” and no one in Maryland was reporting 5”. Lol. He can’t just give it up

This is a good setup for either a weak wave secs level all snow event or a bigger mixed event. Hard to get a big event all snow though. Kinda similar to PD2 setup but even that changed over and it took a perfectly timed/placed Arctic high to even keep it snow that long. VD2007 is a more typical way those end at our latitude if they become too amped up. If you want all snow root for a weaker wave. But there is room for a decent snow followed by big ice solution and that’s fun, especially if we’re protectong our snow pack from back to back weekend hits!

The weak wave to our north Friday was a big would up cutter and it was squashing these waves behind it. As soon as guidance realizes no cutter bomb these threats popped up.

I hate ice storms on bare ground. But if we have snowcover a nice preserving 3” solid ice glacier on top can be fun.

I know your kidding but in fairness I was debbing late Jan into early February when it became apparent to me the pacific was going wrong again. But I tried to say over and over I wasn’t canceling winter and it still looked ok enough to get some snow but I was canceling my epic ness call for late January into February. All things considered we pretty much maxed out the mediocre pattern the last 3 weeks. A west based epo pattern with no blocking help often ends worse. But we fought our way to some snow. As soon as I saw the pacific forcing headed towards right I jumped back in. But I’m not of these “delayed but not denied” spinners. I was wrong. My winter call busted. But I can adjust on the fly. If the look I expected starts to evolve in mid February instead of January I’m not going to ignore it just because I’m feeling butthurt that things didn’t go the way I expected. It finally figured out where that desthband belongs!!! Welcome home.

Anyone remember that thread for the epic end of days drought? I think we’ve got a chance to make it!

Why you taking his bait?

For the record HM didn’t say no snow. He said a HECS wasn’t a lock because of the NAO. Duh. He didn’t even say no NAO in March. He was referring to this wave train coming up the next 10 days.

That’s it I’m out. It’s over. See ya next year.

Made it to Hopkins. Everything went well, recovery going good. Getting out of my road was dicey but main roads were ok. Wife says getting back up my road will be an adventure. Trees coming down. 30 and pouring rain she said. There was about 1/3” ice when I left. Might have to park and walk the last quarter mile. I’m taking my son to see where I work then lunch to kill time. Maybe it warms up some by the time we get back.

Primary is weak, not creating a strong southerly flow. Secondary already developing independent circulation cutting off the primary from deep flow that can wreck mids. Its a tenuous track for sure but “sometimes” that progression can work, but your walking a tightrope for sure that way.

It’s gonna suck for all those that live on the beltway!

What do we need to build to protect us from the people that want to build a wall???