psuhoffman

Wanted to explain what happened to degrade our chances of snow next week. Barring a shift in the north atlantic pattern (and I touched on that yesterday) next week is looking very unlikely to produce snowfall. The guidance miscalculated what happens with the vortex in the north Atlantic the next few days and that sets off a negative chain reaction for our snow chances. From 7 days out the guidance actually nailed the current look pretty much. They might not have had the WAA EXACTLY where it will be...but missing a discreet detail like that by only 100 miles from 7 days away is NOT a significant error and well within acceptable range. Sucks for us but...what happens after this was due to an error in one major feature. Below is what was supposed to happen...That atlantic vortex was supposed to slide across the atlantic, the "storm" this weekend would move into its place...and the flow over the top of that would pump the ridge over Canada and end up centered as shown below. But that isn't what is happening. Instead that Atlantic vortex is going to phase into the TPV over Greenland...strengthening it and anchoring it over Baffin Island...that then also absorbs the storm this weekend up into it...creating a vortex that was not supposed to be there over Baffin...which alters the flow forcing the ridge to shift further southeast...and be centered over the Northeast instead of near Hudson Bay. So we end up with this look....instead of a ridge centered back in Central Canada. That of course shifts the trough well off the east coast. One major miscalculation in a significant feature in the north Atlantic degraded our chances of snow severely. Of course right after I post this the op euro says...wait a minute. There are enough random runs within the ensembles and an occasional op run...that manage to bring down heights to our northeast enough...(as I touched on the other day) that the threat is not completely dead. But it's unlikely IMO... it would need to overcome the ridge being centered too far southeast of where we want it. But guidance could trend back the way we need it...but as of right now the look above is why what was a very good look 5 days ago became mediocre at best.

@C.A.P.E. The solar correlation isn't as simply as some think. On top of what that study showed, which is at times the correlation between solar and NAO have flipped, during the last 50 years there seems to be an opposite effect based on the QBO state. The impact of the QBO on the PV seems to change based on the solar. Unfortunately this year we had what we want during low solar, a descending transitioning QBO and it has yet to do us any good. Isotherm brings up some interesting factors regarding AAM that I honestly have not done much research into and therefore do not factor into any of my calculations. But what I noticed when I did look into his points some... was that the current state of some key circulations are opposite of what we would historically expect given current ENSO and other SST anomalies and indexes. Things are out of phase...and perhaps that does explain some of the odd responses. Like he suggests, some of these other factors being out of phase with what would typically be expected with a descending near neutral QBO in a warm neutral low solar...could be countermanding the typical response to such a state.

I don’t like to disappoint

Every time a threat fails or a pattern degrades some variation of the “I told you so” posts start. Except almost no one thinks snow is likely here. Even when the pattern looks “better” often that just means we have a 25% vs a 5% chance. Most here know our climo. We’re just tracking for fun and knowing every once in a while we get lucky. Telling us told you so is like saying “haha” every time you don’t win the lottery. Oh you told us so? Really. Thanks Nostradamus, really went out on a limb there. Those people look smart 80% of the time until it finally does snow then they look stupid. Of course they disappear when that happens.

I could make a generic forecast like that and it would be right 80% of the time. But thanks for reminding us what normal is around here.

Naw at the end it’s heading the same way the eps and weeklies are. And that’s not bad. But it sucks we might have to wait. Sucks more if it’s wrong and the op gfs is how this goes...

The only saving grace there would be hints the NAM state is flipping. Build the heights more over the top into GL and displace the trough out of the high latitudes and it could get better. But by then it’s mid Feb. let’s just hope that run smoked some funky stuff.

I mostly missed that Jan storm. My 2 biggest snows were the November snow and the March one. But your point is legit. I liked 2018 better though. The 6” in mid December was nice and kind of a surprise. There was a super cold clipper storm in January. One half decent snow in February and then I ended the year with a bang in March. 3 accumulating snows and one of them 14” that stayed otg a week even late March . I ended that winter feeling really satisfied. I had almost identical totals both years but last year felt “empty” for some reason.

It’s an op at super long range but the gfs is the biggest disaster I’ve ever seen at day 15. Just over 24 hours ago was that epic double hit snow run. This one has no more chance of being right. Let’s hope

“Whiff again?” What exactly are you chasing? March 2018 produced a warning level snowfall. Last year was a near normal snow year with several snowfalls. So what is the “again”? Or do you mean you are chasing the rare winter like 1996/2003/2010/2014 when it snows easy and often. If so yea this probably ain’t it. But is there a good chance it will snow again some this year...yea. Some of us are chasing that.

@losetoa6 also...get enough lift and suddenly you create a feedback loop. Warm air is lifted, cooling and condensing causing heavy precip which sets off dynamic cooling processes and mixes colder air back down countermanding the WAA. That’s when we get “the thump”.

It all comes into play but the main driver for WAA is getting enough mid level winds aimed at the cold over us to create lift. If the winds aren’t adequate it just slowly displaces the cold without really creating enough vertical velocity to create heavy Precip. The mid levels are important because that’s where the snow growth zone is.

the main mid level flow is still aimed NW. No getting that back. But that kink on the nam also associated with a little lead wave of vorticity is what’s responsible. It’s thete on the other guidance too but not nearly as distinct. That could save us from a blah event. Or the nam is just being the NAM.

March 2018.

Cfs says mid Feb is worth waiting for I mean it has to be right eventually

Years ago there was a report they actually were measuring at a location surrounded by concrete where nothing would accumulate basically anytime there was no road accumulations. But I can’t verify it and I think I remember there was a dispute of that report. That would explain a lot though.

Just like anywhere else elevation matters. I’ve been in Killington/Rutland for snowstorms several times. Last year I was there and Rutland got about 10” and Killington had 18”. Few years back Killington got 24” and there was about 12 in the valley. Just how it is. But it’s only a short drive up from Rutland so you can spend all day up at Killington to catch the “show”. They have some nice restaurants and bars up there. Don’t know what you’re looking to do. I would definitely take the trip up Sunday to Montpelier and Stowe. Nice drive. And they will get more snow. It’s climo. They almost always do in a storm tracking this far north. Plus Stowe will get upslope snow behind the storm. You can take the Ben and Jerry’s factory tour right outside Stowe. Another option is to check out Stowe during the day and stay at Burlington. Short drive. It’s in the valley and won’t get as much snow but it’s an awesome college town with a lot to do at night. Would be a cool place to spend the last night before heading home. Montpelier is a smaller quieter town but I’m sure you can find a bar anywhere. Just depends what you’re looking for. One last thing...if you do go to Stowe make sure you drive up the access road to the ski resort. Sometimes there is a significant difference in snow. Worth the 5 miles. I hope you have a great time. I’m taking a mini trip myself. My sister is watching the kids so I can take my wife to a little B&B in Gettysburg for the night.

He isn’t wrong though. If it did set up there more than a few days...barring a dramatic flip in the NAO, it would flood the CONUS with maritime pacific air and we would be in big trouble. But I don’t think that’s where the pattern is going right now. It looks transient imo. But if it’s not... When people make conditional statements that’s not the same as them making a predictor. He didn’t say February is screwed. He simply stated a fact that “if” the vortex sets up over AK “then” February is screwed. It’s a conditional statement and it’s accurate.

No it was a nice run imo. Would give us opportunities for snow in February for sure.

I don’t think it will stay there. To me it’s a transient look as the vortex traverses AK as an epo ridge establishes itself. That’s my guess given what the trop pac forcing looks like week 2. It looks ominous simply because it’s at the end and so we can’t “see past it”. But just because we dont get a dumpster fire pattern doesn’t automatically mean we get a great one either. But I don’t think it’s heading towards a permanent AK vortex pac puke pattern Before that I don’t share either extreme view. We likely get warm after the cold shot next week as the Hudson Ridge drifts too far south and temporarily links up with the mid latitude ridge. But there are ways the look could reasonably shift and suddenly be better. If the ocean storm next week were to phase with the NS and pull up into a 50/50. Or another yet unseen vort bombs into that space. The wave break from such pumps the ridge over the top and suddenly we get the colder look of some sporadic runs recently. It’s unlikeky but it’s one rather insignificant change in the longwave pattern that has a drastic effect. Another option is the day 10 storm helps to knock down the ridge to our northeast and sets the table for a threat day 12-15. There are ways to avoid a disaster within the look we are getting. But it will involve some luck. It’s flawed but not no hope.

Very nice weeklies run fwiw

One last thought...dunno if it’s too late to change but if you really wanted to see Stowe you could check the Montpelier area. It’s only about 30 mins away and it’s not in as much of a valley as the other towns so it does better with snow but far enough away from the ski resorts that sometimes it’s not as booked up.

Don’t know how long your up there but once the snow stops Stowe is about a 1:45 drive from Rutland. It’s a nice scenic drive. But at least make sure you head up to Killington. Isn’t a long drive. Its another world from Rutland. Whatever Rutland gets Killington will have at least double. You can check out the wobbly barn if youre looking for something to do.

I don’t put a lot of faith in anything past day 10. The EPS isn’t great but it’s a small adjustment from either good or bad. There will be adjustments. We will see.

How’s the fog?