psuhoffman

DT yesterday “are you crazy...” DT today “I was wrong”

Fringed!

The word is given... Nothing is a given but I am confident the mjo will not be a problem the next few weeks. If we fail it will be a different way.

He is being an arse. I should know I am one. But he says “so you get snow and think winter is back”. Umm yea what time of year does he think it snows lol.

The mjo has been in a fairly consistent pattern. Of course that’s in hindsight. The first wave of winter initiated around phase 1/2 and propagated strongly and slowly (with lots of stalls) through 3-4-5-6-7 then died in 8. The next wave initiated in 3/4 and slowly propagated to 6/7 where it died. This wave is initiating in 7 and heading into 8. According to Don there is historical basis for a stall or recycle from 8 to 7 before the wave advances to 1. So seeing that isn’t too bothersome. Seems a normal thing. I scanned through some past winter mjo charts and he seems to be right with that loop there a regular occurrence. Must be a tendency as waves shift east of New Zealand they die and a new wave reforms northwest before moving east. By this point last time the signs the mjo wave was dead and reforming near the maritime continent was apparent. This time the squabble in guidance is wrt exac convection locations over the central pac and amplitude. The maritime continent is the center of subsidence and high pressure through the next 2+ weeks. No sign of that changing yet. The seasonal mjo trend has been slow and amplified. Slow is good here since the forcing is where we want. Keep it tooling around in 8/1/2 until climo runs out in about 5 weeks.

Freezing rain sleet mix. I have to decide now if it’s better to leave the 1” of muck that fell overnight on the drive or shovel it and throw down salt. Gonna be slippery either way. My long shared drive down the ridge will be the only hard part. I can see 30 through town below moving ok.

Gefs really stepping up the blocking look the last few runs.

Those mjo charts just try to measure the convection locations. Problem is it’s not linear in its progression and so as new areas of convection develop sometimes that chart will jump around. But track the subsidence. By day 10+ all guidance has high pressure and subsidence centered over the maritime continent. Exactly where we want it and expect it in a nino. What convection there is is centered either east of the dateline or in the western Indian Ocean. Also where we want it. I think too much is being made of those charts, as HM said.

This actually matches the gefs and the mjo soi analogs better than the eps look. Eps bias “leaving too much in the west” maybe. I don’t know but considering it’s been correcting east in the medium range I’m disregarding it’s reversion to a huge eastern ridge until I see signs it’s real. Eps has been awful past day 10 all winter.

Given the mjo progression I tend to buy the gefs over the eps day 10-15 right now.

Another 1/2” maybe. Looks like sleet and freezing rain now. 29 degrees. Will be careful. Thanks.

Gefs 6z shifting south next week. Implies big central VA hit. I like seeing waves south at that range. This isn’t a big blocking situation. These tend to trend north.

Eps still has 17 members miss south with a wave next week. Target is our area. Mean went up through day 10. Down slightly through 15 because day 10-15 degraded some with a stronger SE ridge.

Another weenie gfs op run. So much to track

I was trolling him and his response to my 5” of snow was “a few hours of snow and sleet and suddenly you think winter is back”. Lol.

Lol I like his personality. He seems like a snarky smartass like me.

What about Bob? Great movie...just finished Groundhog Day. Maybe I’ll do that one tomorrow night.

Lol that’s exactly the progression I posted earlier today.

I know it was only 7 days but phase 8 in January shifted the trough into the east and we got two snows out of it. Definitely wasn’t what he implies.

Dunno the dryslot is lifting north pretty fast.

No idea but in the mjo data that goes back 30 years I don’t see and phase 8/1 nino warm periods in February so what is his sample size?

Hrrr keeps us a snow sleet mix all night.

@losetoa6@showmethesnow@HighStakes Latest hrrr keeps us a snow sleet mix through 7am. On top of more snow that would be great since I could leave for Baltimore before the freezing rain. I’m sure they will treat 30 and I’m only a couple blocks, but those blocks are a narrow winding drive down my ridge. Rather do it on snow than ice. I have 4 huge bags of salt just in case. I never use the stuff but this is an exception.

Lots of good options