psuhoffman

Part deux on the 22nd

All the guidance has corrected day 6-10 to that look. Then they regress to a SE ridge again. I kind of have a suspicion that’s an error and we just roll once the cold gets in here next week.

Fringed

Hold that thought I need to go measure the snow.

27/19. Coming down pretty hard. Nice dendrites. A little under an inch.

At least it’s not dry

Not for work. Son has a post op apt at Hopkins Tuesday Morning. Might call and see if they can make it the afternoon.

My drive to Baltimore Tuesday morning is starting too look downright dangerous.

They are screwed lol. But a big part of seasonal is using sst to predict the mjo tendencies. What makes enso events easier to predict is a nino and Nina typically have a more predictable effect on the mjo. Nina’s favor phases 4-6 and ninos favor 8-2 and or muted mjo. This year didn’t go to plan.

Imo the reason the mjo is getting so much attention is because of how anomalous it was wrt expectations. One universal thought for this winter was the mjo would be muted and likely not favor warm phases due to the nino and the relationships I said above. In other words a non factor. Instead it spent record time and record amplitude in warm phases which negated the main advantage of a nino which is to place forcing in the central pacific and mute it near the maritime continent. So it was a significant driver that behaved very different than expected. I don’t know what other factors went into it all and what % was the mjo. But the mjo certainly didn’t help.

That’s utter BS. The whole reason a modoki nino is good is because it favors tropical forcing in the central pacific which also mirrors mjo phase 8/1. Also since a -soi means pressures are high near the maritime continent that typically prevents strong mjo phases 4-6 which feature convection there. One of the benefits of a nino is it usually prevents a high amplitude warm phase mjo. This year that failed. But there are these crap posts that imply a nino is bad for snow chances and a return to Nino will kill winter when the failure to get a nino pattern was the problem. I’ve come to the conclusion there are some pro’s who apparently don’t know what their talking about wrt tropical forcing and still use the old super nino broad brush pattern on every nino.

I’m never one to root for a sswe unless we’re in a situation like last year with a hostile Nina regime where anything different is good because the outcome is highly unpredictable. Yea they cause tpv displacements and blocking but not always in ways that help us. Most tpv displacements are transient and cold but not that snowy here. The 2014 tpv gets credit when it wasn’t the cause of most of the snow that year. It was an east based epo ridge with a “just good enough” Atlantic side. And not all blocking is helpful. Last March we got lucky but this year is seems to have caused a west based epo block that has been useless. Maybe the sswe did screw up the modoki nino pattern. Maybe it was doomed anyways. But it certainly did us no good this time around in how it manifested and that seems more common than last March.

There is a euro mjo update other than the one that comes out at 9am?

Sure I’ll pencil it in between 1962 and 1958.

Typo

e13 please then we prepare for March 62 followed by March 58. If I put my Jb weenie goggles on I can see Feb 1994 this week to Feb 2003 next week, to March 62 week 3 to March 58 week 4. Then I will be done with winter and spring has my permission.

Several Atlanta snowstorms on the gefs lol

We can snow with a -pna. It’s not the easiest way but late in winter it becomes more possible.

Gefs just produced the weenie run of the year. Lol

Don’t worry about the exact track that far out on the gfs. It also won’t handle cad well. It had PD2 as a big rainstorm 7 days out, even at penn state where I was at the time. I remember bumming around with my friends who were still in the meteorology program and one of the professors was saying that’s not going to be rain. Something about the epo and 50/50 lol. The key is getting a wave to eject before the se ridge has too much time to recover, and the strength of any NAO 50/50 combo. There are lots of ensemble members that suppress the wave south of us even. There is disagreement on those features. But the flow is way less amplified in the west next week and more suppressive so it’s not as bad a setup as this week was for a big storm. ETA: we could even get back to back hits if the first wave ejects day 8/9 and suppresses the flow behind it for the next wave.

Eps says waves day 9 & 12 stay under.

We haven’t had a top 20 event. But there have been 3 events that are in the top 50. And there are lots of weeks without a top 20 storm. It’s a statistical fluke of random chaos. On the list of things I worry about that’s on page 12 just below unicorn attacks and those ukmet maps ever being correct.

CAD signal at range. Lol

But maestro says it can’t snow Feb 20-Feb 28. Lol

this should open some eyes. Almost all of that around DC is day 6-15. A 6” increase long range is huge on eps. I keep saying we don’t see big increases long range on the eps and it keeps upping the ante. There are 22 members that suppress a storm to our south day 8-15. Many of them that miss us with one wave hit us with another wave so it’s not bad. I see it as a positive that almost half get snow south of us in the period. Much fewer misses north. I count 24 flush 5”+ DC hits. And MANY more 2-4” swipes. Only a handful total misses and more to the south than the north. Overall I’ve not seen a better snow signal for that lead in a long long time.