psuhoffman

Bennington is actually in kind of a snow shadow. I’ve been up there during snowstorms where the mountains get 15” and Bennington had like 6”. All the valley cities get some downslope but it’s worse there. Rutland isn’t as bad and Montpelier is much better for big storms.

@C.A.P.E. if we fail I hope it’s like this so I can troll DT unmercifully

I’m thinking either the mountains in Colorado or somewhere in northern New England. Colorado would be better for skiing and consistent snow and New England better for blizzards.

He moved from the anus to the armpit lol. I always found that whole thing weird. Not the moving for snow I could never live in Richmond. I dream of moving somewhere that gets 100”+ a year and not having to sweat each “threat” anymore. But if you are mobile with your own business like him and your moving for snow why go from somewhere that gets 12” a year to somewhere that gets 25? Why not go somewhere that gets a lot more? He makes himself miserable living there and loving snow. It’s provably worse that being in Florida and just knowing it won’t ever snow. He is constantly teased with the chance but rarely ever rewarded there. Even worse than us.

Point taken but Richmond got 15” from that 1962 storm. I think he just sticks to the euro and firm rules too much.

He is "somewhat" right but takes it to extreme. I mean first you have to ignore that it is going to snow some in the east next week. North of Richmond obviously and mostly north of DC but Philly to NYC is getting at least some snow. Next...no one is saying the next 7 days are getting very cold...but there are 19 days left in February. That is time for the trough ridge alignment to shift. For instance Feb 28 1962 Seattle had 7" of snow... less then a week later Baltimore got 13" of snow, which was the top analog on the day 10-15 EPS yesterday!

he has too many "rules" that he sticks too when there are way too many exceptions in this game for that.

I can't figure DT out... he lamented how the mjo and soi has failed this winter a while ago...and now just as they are both about to do what he expected all winter he bails? Is he just model rip and reading? And even if he is, odd he would cancel right after the 2 best long range runs of the winter.

Great now if JB would too we can sit back and await our HECS

I’ve been tracking this stat. Again the Eps has 15 members that miss us to the south with snow day 10-15. Less than miss north! I count about 14 flush hits. Another 10 decent snowfalls. Only a few misses north and some that suppress everything and are dry. That kind of spread is what you expect on an ensemble day 10-15 and why you never see mean snowfall on the eps that high. But the obvious tone is definitely good.

Yes...eps isn’t underdispersed so it’s really hard to get a mean just from day 10-15 that high. It is over 6” the whole 15 days. But just day 10-15...I’ve never seen it. It’s ~4” here. That’s about as good as you ever get day 10-15. Eps and gefs both honked. But we need to see consistency. It was a good step. And encouraging that it happened as the period we’ve been watching comes into the day 10 range when guidance has adjusted for the mjo all year. Maybe it’s legit.

You

Ok I’m not going to make too much of it but the pattern drivers have said this time period feb 20+ was when to watch and after only subtle hints and false starts both gefs and eps just hit that time period hard 12z with a clear signal. No tea leaves needed. Let’s see if it holds in future runs and maybe we have something here.

Euro control says we get a happy ending.

Eps hits day 10-12 pretty good with snowfall. 10-15 overall is pretty high. 3-4.5” across the area mean. That’s really high for just day 10-15 when spread tends to limit snowfall on the mean.

I have a feeling the SE ridge isn’t totally derived from forcing in the pac. Even when the trough shifts east it gets shunted over the ridge and then the ridge flexes again. Something else might be the problem here.

It was better than 0z but worse than 6z.

Nope cuts lol. Does look like it would have have frozen but it’s way too similar to this week. Blocking breaks down, 50/50 leaves, storm cuts west as eastern ridge returns. Ugh

Op euro has an “incoming” look day 9. Wave in the plains. Cold high to the north. Boundary to our south. Confluence with the departing cutter in a good spot to hold in the northerly flow. Maybe...

@C.A.P.E. the worst member gives me 6.5”. Throwing out the 3 worst as “outliers” the worst of the other 17 is 10”! Shame the gefs is really worthless

The lead wave next weekend is a lost cause. It’s cutting and there is nothing to hold cold in with the war. But there is some support for the idea of the trough digging in and something pops on the coast behind it. After that the long range is a mix of wildly different solutions. The only commonality is it’s wet. But there is some “fake snow” cutters, some real snow hits and some southern sliders. Still more cutters than I like to see but more real hits than recent runs. Net positive imo.

Guidance lately is adjusting the day 8-9 look to what I would expect. More trough east and some blocking. Then they pop the se ridge back day 11+ and the gefs loses the block. I kind of expect that is error and the better look day 8 just rolls into the long range.

You didn’t get a warning criteria snow in March in 2014, 2015, and last year??? That’s 3 of the last 5.

Need to look at the actual members to see if it’s real snow or that mystical 37 degree snow from a low over Michigan.

@frd @Ji was just scanning some of the weather twitters I follow and watched/read some of JBs stuff from the last week. Seems most are saying the same we are and just as confused by the lack or response yet. There is enough hints within the guidance though. Random op runs. Support within each enable. The eps still had 15 members last night miss is to the south with some frozen day 10-15. A few were even big hits to our south. Obviously there isn’t a se ridge problem if a west to east storm gets shoved to our south and it’s snowing in NC. Until I see a clear signal that either the mjo/soi is failing OR it gets inside 10 days and guidance is universal that we won’t get a response I’m sticking with the idea the guidance will adjust to the mjo like it has all year. on a Jb side note... I was a bit disturbed that he sounds a lot like me right now. Confused by the lack of response yet to the mjo and soi. Makes me less confident honestly. But others I trust more are saying the same. Jb does have knowledge but what’s frustrating is his spin and hype and sometimes I believe he purposely misrepresents things to give a false narrative. We essentially had the same forecast except I didn’t go as stupid crazy over the top as he did. But for the most part we thought the same. So I busted just as bad. Only I admitted it a month ago when the soi and mjo failed to act as expected mid January and cycled back into Nina phases after only a 7 day nino tease. At that time my forecast AND his was wrong. No matter the results it would still be wrong because all the justification for it was wrong. But he is still acting like everything is going according to plan. And even if he could pull off the snow with some late fluke his temperature call only runs to Feb 28 and has no chance. It’s toast. The exact place he centered his cold will be the center of the warmth yet he is acting like his winter forecast was ok. What’s more amazing is he has this google of followers that defend him (mostly around NYC which makes sense since they are the one place with such crazy anomslous snow recently that his forecasts weren’t as bad there).