psuhoffman

I tend to agree...just being guarded given my fail so far.

@Bob Chill even up here it’s hit or miss. There have been some epic epo patterns that built a glaciers here like feb 1993 and feb 1994 but more often the MO without blocking is 1-2” and a lot of rain. Not always. I’ll feel a lot better about our chances once real blocking sets up and there is a locked in 50/50. This setup was almost perfect but the NAO breaks down 24 hours too soon and might open the door to a cut. For anyone else wondering we would want the NAO to relax and break if we had a +pna but with a -pna it needs to hold enough to force storms under us despite a bad trough axis.

Im fine w that if the mixed ends up >50% frozen. If at the end it was a bunch of 1-2” washed away by rain like the last few epo gradient patterns I’ll pass.

Other than one tpv displacement that only lead to 5.5” of snow in my yard...I’ve seen no sign its been of benefit. And now I see chatter that it’s lingering effects could be disrupting the typical response to favorable tropical forcing. So how it’s helping us so far is beyond me.

Furtado’s study? I thought that was only for phase 7/8. That goes all the way into 8/1 and 1? SOAB! Ok so just venting here then...because a sswe is supposed to be this god darn awesome thing and all...so in a nino with a early season ssw WHAT FREAKING PHASE do we want? Are they somehow all bad?!? Obviously that’s not directed at you wxusaf.

Yea I posted a frame from the 12z gfs where we were under a big ridge and snowing. It could work that way. But I still suspect that se ridge is overdone.

Ok... as for the se ridge... we will see but all winter the day 10-15 has trended towards the tropical forcing analogs. That’s been bad most of the time. I’m expecting the same in our favor now.

The other day he was whining because it was 3” for the whole 15 days. Now it has 3” the first 7 days and another 3” the last 8.

That’s the same increase as last run when it went from 2” to 5” after the storm early next week.

Weird look on EPS. Great -NAO. Best 50/50 I’ve ever seen in a day 15 ensemble. Trough east of Hawaii. Looking at pressure and precip day 10 soi is negative and mjo should be in 8/1. But it still has a -pna and SE ridge. I’m just going to assume it’s wrong since everything says there should be a trough in the east.

You're looking at the old run, it has a cutter way up into canada this run.

thanks

I liked the structural changes on the euro...it sucked wrt ground truth because it had a weird precip representation with dry slots all over the place and we got stuck under one. But the representation and evolution is closer to what can give us a good snow than last night or yesterday was.

JB says we go from Feb 94 to Feb 2010 lol There are some similarities to both "SOME" and I am very on board with the potential...but its just amazing that every pattern he uses the absolute most extreme example He jumped the shark years ago when he forecasted some 1" frontal snows and literally said "but it might be the worst 1" snow ever".

e12 thinks we both get 40"+ in the next 2 weeks.

The trends in the models are predictable given the pacific. We watched the same/inverse trends all winter when the pac forcing was destructive...now it is constructive and we are seeing the positive influence, equally under-estimated by guidance at range.

Where do you get those mjo h5 analogs from?

look at the little lobe rotating down around the 50/50 at just the right time to add a little extra confluence and suppress the flow a bit. Maybe one of these works in our favor this time.

It's all about the blocking...get that epo/nao ridge connection across the top along with the 50/50 and it will promote high pressure across southern Canada and the northern CONUS and they will be locked in by the 50/50. Regardless of the se ridge storms will be forced west to east under the blocking.

I'm listening...

I don't laugh at that... I don't understand the cause/effect relationship well enough to add much but I don't laugh at things I don't understand. As far as the blocking... we are due for another -NAO period. We had a period of blocking in the late 1800s and again around the middle of the last century and we are due for another. If/when that happens some of the assumptions about certain other influences will change. For instance, a nina wasn't necessarily a bad thing during the -nao periods. We have had some pretty good nina winters when the nao was negative.

yes sorry will fix now

The GFS op might be the weeniest run of the year, wave after wave west to east under us with 1040 high pressures to our north... and it highlights how the day 10 eastern ridge might not even be a problem. Yea there are higher heights in the east because of the -PNA but look at the blocking up top and the 50/50, nothing is cutting in that pattern and it leads to this...we will overcome a -PNA with that pattern up top. Actually with that pattern up top we WANT a -PNA or else it would be congrats Jacksonville. As for SE ridge, look at the h5 heights But look at the surface the same time This is why the snow means jump day 10-15 on the GEFS and EPS even though we are under a ridge. If that look up top is correct storms will be forced under us as there will be a parade of high pressure blocked across the north.

It could be, the failure of it to develop into a significant event this year increases the threat of a nino next year. So long as it's not a super nino that would be great. There are no signs right now of a super nino. USUALLY there are some hints of that by now...not always, enso guidance is very unreliable for the following winter until the summer in general...but right now the ambiguous signal would favor a weak to moderate enso event next year if there is one at all in either direction. If it goes weak to moderate nina I am riding the -NAO and Solar signal to the 1996 analog all the way. As I have said previously, if we do get a -NAO during a nina it actually works just fine. The problem is our chances of a -nao seem lower in nina years...the amplified northern jet destructively interferes with blocking typically, AND out chances of snow SUCK without blocking in a nina.