MountainGeek

Yup was just going to mention that -- looks like with the latest runs just about everything started going significantly north. PSU's crystal ball FTW.

The 3K NAM isn't concerned with your feelings......6"+ for you. Ferrier cuts that in half to 3" or so. Not a bad appetizer for the April HECS next weekend. ETA: CMC on the bandwagon as well. Overall the event seems to be juicing up notably over previous runs; not seeing any obvious signs of a north trend yet -- something to keep a close eye on as PSU mentioned earlier.

Don't look at the 18Z GFS for Sun/Mon then.

An unmitigated disaster.....spring cancel! I think we need a warmup/pattern change to reshuffle things.

Definitely some impressive temps for April. DC riding the line on the 850s as well as the surface. North and west looks pretty solid at that time. Verbatim this looks very sensitive to timing.....850s start out warm then push south throughout the day, but of course surface starts out colder and warms during daylight hours.

ICON supports GFS solution, CMC likes a little more precip as snow, maybe think of it as a blend of NAM and GFS.

Well, normally I'd say the 12K NAM at range in April, what could possibly go wrong? But @cae has promised us that this is just the warmup mini-unicorn storm before the real storm parade starts. A warning criteria snow plus two HECS seems a bit greedy, so I'm closely managing my expectations. For our spring snow season, this year I'm going very conservative and setting the bar at a few inches for the appetizer and only a single mid-April HECS.

From Paul Dorian: "The sun is blank today for the 10th straight day and it has been without sunspots this year more than half the time as the current solar cycle (#24) heads towards the next solar minimum. The last time the sun was this blank in a given year on a percentage basis was 2009 during the last solar minimum when 71% of the time was spotless." Obviously there are a few other factors in play, but wouldn't a 2009/2010 repeat be tasty?

Is there some kind of moderate correlation between lower solar activity and -NAO duration? Thought I read that somewhere.....obviously we're heading into a lower solar activity period so that could bode well for us in the upcoming years.

Spring is the new Winter! Which raises some thorny questions, like when is the cutoff for snow season totals? Can we count April snow as an early start on the 2018-2019 season? I suppose technically June 30 would be the midpoint, so our April, May, and June snow will have to go into the current running totals. Poor Mappy..... But on the bright side, our July 4 HECS will count towards an epic next season!

I'll give @Ji until midnight tonight to start the thread, and then I'll make one myself!

Isn't it about time for Ji to start the storm thread for the D10 threat? Seemed to work pretty well last time...

We're close to the Appalachian Trail.....so just toss your keg on a towable sled and snowshoe your way over. We'll build a nice big bonfire out back and I'll show you how to Jebride an ATV in a snowstorm like a true West Virginian (yeah we did a slight mod on the traditional Jebwalk to better fit the terrain and add some local flavor). Back to the models -- we need to combine our energies to get this to sub-120hrs. In addition to CAPE/Amped/cae and other guys in this thread, HM and Cranky have both noted the potential in the upcoming period, but all the various pieces are probably going to drive the models crazy for a while (as we've frequently seen this year already). The nice thing about this threat is at least we are coming off a moderately decent late event hit last week and the kids got a good couple of sledding days in. So anything we get now is just gravy. And I think I figured out what happened to the Euro -- funding was tight, so they just grabbed the old unused code from the previous version of the NAM and merged that in to create the new Euro. I don't think I've truly been NAM'ed all year, but I've been Euro'ed more than once.

We all know we're too far north to expect good snow in April.....I think early May is going to be our window.

It's half the model it used to be...... and if it verifies I will blast me some STP during the event.