MountainGeek

Going straight for the kill shot I see.......not even giving @WxWatcher007 a chance to have fun baiting the poor weenies for a couple of months before they succumb to the final plunge of despair.

Here's a pretty cool ENSO - snowfall chart from Josh Timlin; this clearly illustrates many of the ongoing discussion points, especially in terms of setting general expectations for the upcoming winter: https://www.joshtimlin.com/enso-charts-winter

Posting for historical reference when the winter ends up giving us "decent" median amounts -- let's go ahead and get rock bottom out of the way now! Although @Maestrobjwa might just get his wish of widespread pain and suffering along the entire east coast. Ben Noll put together a "blend" of global winter snowfall anomalies from the ECMWF+UKMET: https://www.bennollweather.com/ecmwf

He thinks "climo" snowfall for the East coast is a poor representation of ground truth. One big storm can literally be the difference between a great "anomaly" year and a total dud. Lately we tend to be more boom/bust, so we could easily get 3 crap years, then one big year. So maybe an area averages out to 30" a year, but the reality they should be expecting is 10", 5", 20", 15", 70" vs complaining when they don't get 30" every year. PSU has hammered this point as well - a 15" annual average leads to the unrealistic expectation that we need to get 15" or better to be a "good" year. Median would be a better approach than the mean (which is skewed by the occasional HECS or big winter).

I think the persistent AK vortex and associated record cold is another interesting indicator of the overall pattern and likely results. Based on typical wavelengths/troughs/ridges, there seems to be a significant association between that and a mild/warm eastern US. I think the most recent year we had a similar persistent record AK cold was 2012-2013. That year didn't go so well for us either.....although NW did get pasted with mashed potatoes in March.

Paging @WxWatcher007....you should be planning to work lots of overtime in the near future..... crankyweatherguy Replying to @ericfisher It died on November 28th, apparently. Will continue the good old "next window for a storm is" song and dance. See if one or two click a little S&E and see what they give. Interior has done just fine "snowfall anomaly" wise. (which is why I hold utter disdain for the metric) crankyweatherguy Retweeted GIF

Perhaps we've been missing a key tellie - when epic failure reaches the ultimate heights and we achieve the fabled +++++++NAO, the sheer weight of the suckage collapses in on itself and becomes a means for us to get snow.

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 34m34 minutes ago Lead system hasn't moved much if at all. Our incoming storm is starting to slow in response. The kicker won't. Eye on the lead system and how the storm system behaves in kind in its wake the next 24-30 hours. Refer to Videos for "why" that matters (1 of 2 capture related issues).

Showme to the rescue -- I don't care if you have to fudge the dates and post old snowmaps...anything to pull folks back from full tilt....

I'm more concerned about precip than temps....let's get that initial band as heavy as possible!

NWS seems to have increased totals a bit with the most recent update:

For the weeenies and non-experts out there.......can you please refrain from posting definitive statements re model runs? If you have to ask whether you are one of the experienced posters, the answer is NO. We have plenty of experts who can handle the analysis and mixing in bad analysis just causes confusion.

Instead of getting all butthurt, why not hear what people are telling you and just tone it down a bit on the "certainty" that is coming across in your posts as somewhat arrogant? I'm sure we'd all love to have your thoughts and input, and people will definitely give you the respect you deserve over time if you become a solid contributor. I'm assuming that you aren't actually arrogant, you're just coming across that way at times because you're relatively new to the board and you may not realize how your writing style looks to others. No way you did this for 30+ years and didn't get your ego stomped good at least a few times by the fickle nature of the game. So, again -- we'd love to have your contributions, may I suggest taking an introspective look at how you might be coming across to others and give them a chance to get to know and respect your expertise over time.

Best snow event of the decade! And a really nice treat to tide us over through the upcoming shutout period. No complaints at all, especially when we were expecting a no-go until after Jan 20th anyway. @psuhoffman has been quiet (unless I missed it)......need to know how that inverted trough paid off for you in Jackpotville. Any takers for 6"?

Thanks -- I'm seeing reports of 4" around her area, I want to make sure my WHITE RAIN forecast verifies!