MountainGeek

This is a good positive step for us -- means we're not out of the game yet. Watch this thing hit RDU and leave us fringed again by the time it's all over. I'm hoping we see consistent moderate improvement run to run from here on out....too much jumping around and we're going to have to switch Chill back over to glass-half-full mode to get the storm to come back north.

Where was the SLP on the previous run at those two timeframes?

PSU -- I was just messing around earlier, but do you think there is something to the GFS bias about the stream interaction vs UKIE? Would be interesting if UKIE was first to catch on to less interaction with TPV and other models are playing catch up on the 20th storm. OTOH, maybe Chill finally did it with his latest post being sort of down on the next 10 days. That's what we needed.... Paging @Jebman -- we will need a poem or a song in honor of snow on snow on snow in the next 10 days. ETA: As DDweatherman noted, we need UKIE to hold steady of course.

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml UKMET Subjectively Observed Bias Geographical location of bias Annual/Diurnal attribute Submitted by Date Submitted Operational Implication Suspected Cause Seems better than GFS with forecast of phasing of systems in northern and southern branch of jet North American middle latitudes Anytime NCEP WPC Since fall of 2001 When GFS is showing phasing of systems beyond 84 hours, check UKMET to see if solution is consistent GDAS ? Weenie translation: blah blah blah UKMET "better than GFS blah blah beyond 84 hrs"

See Cranky for a more detailed discussion: http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e011419.htm "Where the 1/17 system tracks the 1/20 will follow but perhaps at a slightly more southern course along the way. "

BUMP!

Still snowing -- very light but still going. That makes 36 hrs since first flakes. Awesome overall storm for duration of falling snow including daytime. I think we'll wrap up with about 8.5" total. @Jebman - my 3 year old son apparently decided it was time to start his Jebwalk training as of tonight. The Mrs was giving him a bath while I went out on the front steps to measure the snow...next thing I know he pops out the front door, runs out into the yard, and opens his mouth to catch the nice big flakes coming down. Very cute.....and then I noticed the ONLY thing he had on was a pair of flip flops. Wasn't it @stormtracker who mentioned something about running in the streets nekkid if this storm verified? He's got to do better -- my 3yo been there done that.

Western Atlantic Ridge. Sometimes this hurts us, other times it helps depending on a number of other factors in any overall specific setup.

Light snow started here - 32/18 WV Blue Ridge between Berryville and Purcellville

22/16 - WV Blue Ridge between Purcellville and Berryville

Not all interference is destructive. Constructive interference means it interferes to make it larger in a positive way.....so MJO 7/8 strong would enhance the existing -AO.

Maybe a positive that GGEM and GFS both agree on the general idea of a storm staying under us during that timeframe? I'm more than happy to see anything other than yet another GL cutter. Main difference I can see is how much cold air we have to work with. GFS has the 850s going up into NY.

Only out to 174 on TT.....what is that pretty blue ball I see heading our direction?

Given the prevailing mood in here, the LAST thing we need is for you to be critical. I'm thinking after we get this current storm system out of the way we'll have better model clarity on our chances for next week -- wouldn't be surprised if something small/moderate sneaks up on us.

Interesting: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf