MountainGeek

Like I've been saying, April 16th is the day to watch to appropriately bookend the season vs Nov 16th! OTOH, shift the entire thing east a bit and maybe we could force the IRS to close on April 15.

April 16 is the threat window to watch, I'm tellin ya.......Nov 16th and April 16th will be appropriate bookends.

Not the most recent one, but per: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/04/03/you-wont-believe-how-late-it-snowed-in-d-c-in-colonial-times/?utm_term=.bfbf413844f7 The Great April Fools Day Storm of 1807. From the Ohio Valley to the northern mid-Atlantic, anywhere from 1-4 feet of snow accumulated, with the higher amounts, of course, in central Pennsylvania, New York, and New England. April 5, 1863 recorded 12 inches of snow in Georgetown, Washington, D.C. DC's latest measurable snow was on April 28, 1898, when .5 inches fell.

You know one of these years the April Fools storm will eventually verify.......2019 seems as good a year as any for it to happen.

The PSU-FRING index is the best single teleconnection for us getting snow.

Maybe instead of Nov 16 it's going to be Dec 9 for the other bookend..... OTOH, can you IMAGINE the trolling PSU would dish out to DT?

Under 10 days -- it's a lock!

Is that a real member or did you just pull Dec 9, 2018?

Great writeup. This graphic supports your contention that it's really not the sun angle melting the snow while it is forming or ground temps preventing accumulation as much as increased warmth in the lower levels that reduces our snow chances in March. Note how much snow falls in March in areas at the same or even LOWER latitude than we are. The difference is elevation, which tends to offset the lower level warmth issues.

It's not gonna stick around for weeks in March no matter how much we get. I've seen 14" melt within 24 hrs in late March.

Agreed -- 0.5" here, everything covered except pavement. Getting dangerously close to beating the 6-8" we didn't get last weekend. 32/31.

What do you think are the main drivers of nina suckage in our area? I'm thinking: 1) Tend to be more NS dominant, which means it's a lot harder to get something to dig enough to get under us. Miller B's like to run just north of us or jump over us and clobber NE. And we don't tend to get Miller A's or juiced up overrunning from the south without decent STJ. 2) Lack of consistent STJ also means we have problems getting enough chances for decent precip timing up with cold shots. If NS does get us, it's more light clipper-type deals. Overall it seems that a solid consistent STJ keeping precip chances aimed in our general direction is a key player in helping us have enough opportunities to score decently in a given winter. The obvious exception is a super-nino, which tends to cause temp problems unless we can get lucky with transient cold/blocking and then we get our HECS (eg 2016).

Picking up -- legit moderate snow now.

But how heavy is it?

Now up to moderate snow with occasional missiles mixed in - all we need is 1" here to beat last weekend's epic bust.