psuhoffman

Yes...game on!!!

Cfs got even better today lol

Very reasonable

Don’t want to kill anyone’s happiness. Lol. But we’re in different places I think. We’re entering the 4th quarter but your up by 7 and I’m down by 14 wrt climo so settling for a fg is different for me. I suck at analogies...sorry. Im very optimistic we see another warning event this year. Maybe more than one. Just not sure this is going to be one of them.

You are probably kidding but I am not...if these day 10 looks are even remotely close than an epic pattern is coming day 10+. crashing soi I will take that look day 10 and roll with it So the op euro is an example of how next week could fail...and I kind of think that's how it "might" go down but I am confident we will have more chances and better ones after. NOT saying next week will fail... but if it does I think a better pattern is on the way with the trough axis shifting east.

don't worry it has another cutter rainstorm a couple days later

The 850 only pushes south for a short period then retreats...barely gets much south of you at all...there is probably a very limited window of pure snow and low ratio at that. It's a little far out to pick apart details like that. But you were upset about the 0z run last night when it started in this direction...this run took another step and now you are ok with it?

lol I know you would...and good for you, seriously. But I was talking to Ji...and we both know the answer

Yea... some might appreciate that and who I am to deb on that. If some are happy to get a little taste of winter before another drenching rainstorm that is great... and they should enjoy it. But this run is 90% rain and kind of a bummer after several euro runs in a row with a big snow event. I am not surprised, not upset, not even disappointed. This exact run is kind of what I have expected from this type of setup, and why I haven't let myself get excited yet. A little bit of frozen to a lot of rain is kind of the climo favored outcome here. But we have already beat the odds a few times this year so why not again maybe.

I am totally on board with the long range looks. I think something good is coming. But verbatim the euro is 1-3" of snow to a few hours of ice, followed by a CRAP ton of rain...that would immediately wash any trace of frozen off the ground. Would you really be happy with that? Really? Be honest with yourself.

Watch the EPS get on board now after the worse op run in days. lol

kinda... there is SOME frozen so it's not a total fail but.... all this gets washed away by rain immediately after also. Maybe this is just me, but it kind of ruins the event for me if it ends without anything on the ground.

Euro is a little bit of light mix followed by a big ole cutter rainstorm. Not as bad as the GFS but the result is the same.

-pna is a trough, good luck with that

less confluence and whole thermal profile is shifted a decent bit north at 120 on the euro. Too early to say yet but that is not a good sign imo.

snowstorm54324320947321097439 messaged me to say e8 is the most accurate gefs member

I loved everything about the GEFS run, start to finish. There is almost no way everything day 5-16 will be snow, if it is we will end up with 50". But if we can get the boundary south enough that just 1/3 of it is snow...and enough of the rest is ice/mix to keep some on the ground...I will call that a win. I know its further out there but the look day 10-16 is really getting my attention. The epo shifting east along with that 50/50 look...yesterday we agreed all we need is SOME nao help to shift that into a great pattern and today there are signs we might get exactly that. I know its way out there in range the guidance has sucked BUT this time the tropical forcing supports such a look and guidance is starting to shift towards that and not away from it so maybe it has some legitimacy this time. As for your son, congrats, that is great! He is well on his way.

don't worry the pattern between the patterns says nina. Sun is hot.

some big hits in the gefs

GEFS is a straight weenie of all weenie runs. Start to finish... Bob hit on the improvements day 5 but in the long range it shifts the EPO ridge into NW Canada (where we want it) and has one of the stronger 50/50 signals you will ever see past 10 days. Just enough nao ridging. Again our number 1 correlation to big snowstorms is the lower heights in the 50/50 space. That is an even bigger correlation to big snow here than the NAO or AO or EPO. Actually, the whole reason we want a -NAO is to get the 50/50 since typically a ridge over greenland will promote getting systems stuck under it in the 50/50 space. But the 50/50 is the actual feature we really want to get a big snowstorm. This is a straight great look...and it gets good well before this too. Guidance responding to tropical forcing maybe...

People = Ji in fairness it looked like it was going to be a big hit, then it bombed and cut the low inland right over DC and flipped to rain. It reminded me a little of the early march storm in 1994 that run.

I suppose that is acceptable

Sounds right...I’m just keeping my expectations low so as not to get let down.

There are multiple ways to work. The easiest is more energy sooner. Even if the lead wave fails you want it to lower heights to our southeast as much as possible to create a weakness for the next wave to be drawn towards. Additionally it limits the energy held back that could over amp the second wave to our west. The trough axis is not good so we don’t want something going nuts out west. More energy early is better because the cold is in place with confluence. The longer something waits to get organized the more chance it departs. If too much energy holds back it likely cuts. A nice even split and we could end up with the fv3 coastal bomb idea. The way you get that is enough wave 1 to lower heights and promote high pressure hanging back over the top then the second wave phases into that weakness along the coast under the high. There are a lot of moving parts but the worst case scenario is too much energy holding back too long.

Lol I was on his side wrt his fears. I wasn’t implying I was against you. Sorry.