psuhoffman

Been out having fun. Ended with 5.2”.

Thank you for your contribution

That’s pretty much what I was saying my fear wrt where the eps look could evolve if we don’t get epo help with a strong +AO but it doesn’t have to go that way. But I would feel better if we got some indication forcing would change in the pac.

End?

I’m trying to be optimistic about the eps. But the danger if the NAM stays super positive and pac ridge relaxes but stays centered too far southwest once a trough pulls back into near AK ( which it would when the pac ridge relaxes) we would just transition to a zonal pac puke pattern. If we want a stable better pattern we either need AO/NAO help or an epo ridge. Absent either of those were rooting for luck with a perfectly timed transient feature like today. A ridge traverses the pna domain at the exact perfect time but even so it’s got limited potential and some will fail because of the overlying crap pattern. Who knows maybe we keep lucking our way to a decent year in an overall craptastic pattern but I don’t want to have to roll that way if we can avoid it.

It’s a convoluted look that has to be the result of higher than normal divergence. But there are features to like. The pac ridge relax and pressing into the west coast. Hints of a southern stream. Ridging west of Hudson. Still things not to like, the NAM. My take is the eps is unsure where to go which is better than some other options.

Know your climo, we spend 90% of our winter periods in “screwed”. It’s what we do best.

My fav too. Thanks.

Been raining in Baltimore but staring to change over. I’m leaving now to head home. Plan to take my son sledding.

I’ve noticed that it sometimes struggles with lighter precip at the start of an event and in those cases will default to surface temps. I don’t know if it takes a bit to calculate or if light precip is an issue for its algorithm but it does much better with heavier precip once an event gets going.

Not over yet...but not looking good. The UHI effect does seem to be getting worse in marginal situations...even faster then the general climo is degrading. There have been so many marginal historically 50/50 setups recently but they all seem to break wrong now.

Wife reports stickage at home, I am in Baltimore where it just started very light snow.

Overlooked? It’s all that’s been talked about for the urban corridor and why the forecast there is for less than NW.

The GEFS is even stronger into Phase 5/6 than the euro, but worse it starts to loop the wave back through warm phases with high amplitude in the long range. The euro simply kills the wave and lets "other factors" take the wheel. If the GEFS is actually right and the MJO stays in high amplitude and does a loopty loop in phases 4-6 were screwed. Lucky the GEFS been getting schooled by the EPS for a while now. Of course with our luck this will be the time the GEFS nails it.

Euro says DC area gets very heavy rates from 2-4pm. Inverted trough depiction still there south to north across central MD. Pretty good spot for Chill north to get some bonus.

This is my super secret early first estimate for a hypothetical guess. I will issue my first updated early estimated guess later today and my final forecast sometime tomorrow after I read the storm report bulletins. I actually feel pretty good about this one for anyone NW of 95... some pretty good forcing and omega showing up. Should overcome marginal temps there. I could even see some of those 3-4" totals sneak in real close to 95 if banding sets up right. In the UHI...it will be close and you know the drill. Good luck everyone.

Yea we're on the same page...but keep it out of the main threads... don't want to spoil their fun worrying about a degree or two the night before every event!

It happens somewhat frequently in marginal events. Especially NYC where being right on the coast can torch their boundary layer with an easterly wind.

Agreed, but the temp right at the surface hours before an event isn’t always a good indicator of the boundary layer during the storm. Due to an inversion it was 32 at my house but 28 a few hundred yards away down the mountain. So does that mean they will be 4 degrees colder during the storm? Actually the opposite.

I see you got your reaper check this morning.

I’ve been noticing that for a couple days. There seems to be a perfectly aligned weak IVT which is enhancing the FGEN and moisture convergence over our area for a time. Could add a little extra pop to the event for some that end up under those bands.

Is it cheating if I bought up all the remaining dip n dots and sprinkle them all over my yard before every storm?

What really matters is the thermal profile just above the surface and the dewpoints. I was lol at the posts obsessing over a couple degree difference in surface temps last night and this morning but didn’t want to spoil the fun in the main thread. Not sure if that wave slowed that much or it ended to the next one but what guidance nailed at impressive leads was that the pattern was loaded and any decent wave within that time period was likely to produce a big mid Atlantic storm.

Only if the fire pits have sharks with laser beams.