psuhoffman

Lol... I do deb sometimes...but I don’t do it because I’m emotional or trolling or in a bad mood...I do it when the pattern just isn’t right according to history. I’ve seen the models pop out snow in a pattern that just isn’t favorable time and time and time again (just 3 weeks ago they did this same game with that swfe) and 90% of the time it degrades to rain as we get closer. Not always, flukes happen. But I don’t like counting on flukes.

24 hours ago now... any bets where this is heading???

Yours is 37 too long!

Well no one wants to say it but you know the writings on the wall when you can’t tell the storm thread from the banter thread.

When was the last time we had a -epo -pna pattern with no blocking, no suppressed tpv, and the epo was centered off the west coast and we got a lot of snow???

The cutter after the cutter after the cutter sets up the 1-3” day 15!!! winning

Thought you were excited for this epo gradient pattern?!

You’re talking about only an 8 day period. There are so few 12”+ storms that with the exception of a few lucky weeks there are several 8 day periods without a lot of 12”+ storms.

its a valid idea though.

I’m actually kind of rooting on a mega cutter bomb. That could help tank the NAO more and get the trough into the east behind it.

Wow huge shift in the storm for next weekend on gfs. Went from a cutter to a super mega cutter. Snow shifted from Chicago NW to Minneapolis NW. Maybe if it keeps trending that way for the next 30 runs it can swing all the way around and hit us from the east!!!

But the ukmet scores very high I hear.

I’m sorry our late February snows haven’t lived up to your specific storm criteria.

According to local coop here there was snowcover for 3 days. Went from 16” otg the day of storm to 8” to 3” then gone. Not great but gone in 3 days is better than gone in 3 hours.

Lol you tell yourself whatever you have too

Chill out..there were big storms in that period. Ji dismisses the 12-18” storm in late Feb 1987 for some reason. We just had a 6-10” snow late Feb in 2015. We had a 6” snow late February 2005. Ji is making a big deal of a minor statistical anomaly.

The top day 10-15 analog from last nights eps was a few days before the 1962 Ashe Wednesday blizzard. Feb 58 and 87 in there too. Some better analogs starting to pop up.

Well obviously we're due then!!!

I think we might win this one though...

Yea I liked it a lot. I am not even sure the EPAC is going to stay unfavorable. There are signs towards the end the EPO is shifting south and pressing into the west coast and likely to become a PNA ridge. The EPO is going positive but that's ok, in late Feb into March we want that epo ridge out of there...wavelengths are too short, all its doing this time of year is digging the western trough and pumping the SE ridge. As long as we have NAO blocking to prevent a PAC Jet onslaught we are good with that. Unless the EPO shifts way east and links with a PNA ridge...or has a TPV displaced in eastern Canada its more harmful than helpful this time of year. Get it out of there, let some PNA ridging develop, and we can work with the icebox air left over in Canada this time of year so long as there is blocking to prevent it from getting scoured out by the PAC. By the time it moderates our climo clock would be running out anyways. Agreed. It can't be all that much of a problem since I count 15 EPS members that miss us to the SOUTH with a snowstorm in the long range! That was actually the only reason the snow mean wasn't higher in our area day 10-15, the snow is shotgunned all over the east coast during that time. Equal parts misses to the north, south, and flush hits.

It isnt a warm ridge though lol... this is the temp anomaly right in the middle of that SE ridge

I thought it was an improvement, it wasn't enough this run...but it adjusted the trough axis east some and by day 15 is starting to shove the se ridge out. The trough east of Hawaii is better. EPO starting to make progress towards maybe morphing into a PNA at the end..which is what the weeklies and cfs do. Blocking still there from day 8 on... one of the best 50/50 looks ever (and the 50/50 is our number one telleconnectors to snow). There was a LOT more to like than dislike this run. The ONLY thing to dislike was the SE ridge day 10-14, but its temporary, and I am not even that sure its going to be that strong. If the euro keeps adjusting the trough east a little bit in a few runs it wont even be a problem anymore.

In fairness the Euro op did improve this run in some significant ways, just not in terms of snowfall for DC itself but a slight shift south with the mid level temps and suddenly...

the EPS snowmaps on wxbell do not count ice as snow. That is why the EPS snow mean is consistently "less weenie" looking even when they show the same pattern. Often it is less weenie because its right...there is that too. Just saying

I said Feb 20 as my target a while ago... you all keep jumping on "threats" before that