psuhoffman

The snow in my yard that just melted was from a storm most guidance had as a cutter at day 5. Just pointing that out for those that are making definitive decisions for next weekend based on any one run right now. (Not talking about you). The trend towards more ridging near Hudson Bay is the best chance to turn this into a winter event.

I knew you were kidding. Im not totally shocked to see the suddenly flip up top. It fits the analogs that did turn better. It also fits phase 7. The same processes that are helping progress the pac ridge also pressure the TPV. So it makes sense. Just highlights the nwp can’t resolve the HL past about day 10 with any accuracy.

I’m sure you will get a calm level headed response.

The gfs had a suppressed storm most runs of the last couple days there. Don’t worry too much about discreet features at day 12 on an op run.

I’m going to spend the rest of the day worried about the Uber block cutter on the op gfs at day 12

2 weeks ago when I looked at past similar pac patterns and how they progressed it struck me how almost all the comps that evolved to a good look were accompanied by at least a period of blocking in the AO or NAO domain during the transition. A few days ago when the guidance showed the pattern progressing to an Epo ridge without a flip in the NAM state I was like “that’s not how it’s happened before but that works”. Now suddenly a more historically supported progression is showing up on guidance. As usual climo beats guidance at long range most of the time.

That’s so cool! Btw that’s one of those things people think they want until their roof is flying off and all their possessions are getting destroyed... I am included in that group so this is as much a shot at myself just sayin...

Let the record show the “winter is almost over, we’re rinning out of time” posts have started on January 11th.

Thanks, you saved me the time of counting them all.

Here’s a version for those that don’t enjoy trips to the chiropractor

Allen was hitting this in the SE forum so I don’t want to take any credit but for whatever reason (likely the fact January has the broadest most stable wavelengths of winter) phase 7 just in January is actually a really good phase. It’s temps are skewed warm on the seasonal charts because in Feb it becomes a warm phase and 8 takes on a similar h5 look phase 7 has in January. But assuming we can get into 7 in January and then by February it’s either moved on to 8 or simple dies that’s a good look. Phase 7 h5 composite for January. Sorry but I will not pay for the chiropractic services you may require to see the image.

It starts as a brief period of snow before a flip to rain...in extreme northern Vermont.

Who is hugging anything. I see a lot of analysis of the different looks with discussion of possible variations we might see and all the options. But yes the NWP has a part in that. How do you suggest we analyze the long range? Fuzzy caterpillars and wives tales about fog?

I am EVERYONE!!!!

Very unusual but the euro op was kinda doing it too. When under attacks by waves the tpv has been easy to beat around this year. probkem has been at times the mid latitude patterns set up perfectly to let the tpv sit over the pole and spin. Maybe that’s a sign the qbo is helping a little. Last year was a reverse when wave after wave would blast the tpv and the guidance at range would develop monster blocking but the tpv wouldn’t budge and kinda just chuckle at us like “that all you got”.

Next verse...

My truck broke down my dog ran away Now tell me lord What to do today

I’ll enjoy anything that isn’t crap. Way too much lately is crap.

It was mostly my fault. I’ve seen that pac look destroy winters a few times and I got spooked. I was wrong (hopefully). The numbers do support the danger of that look but by presenting it the way I did it obviously conveyed more doom than warranted. I did post the good and bad outcomes and said that the bad was only likely if the look persisted past mid month but it was obvious I was nervous and that spooked the resident weenies. I’ll take the blame for that one. ETA: any suggestions what I should do with my reaper check?

A central pac ridge that locks in longer than a couple weeks yes. If it’s long enough to cause a strong anomaly centered north of Hawaii but not into the epo region for the whole month of January over 80% of those years went on to a horrible February also. When I threw that nugget out there the look was still too far out to see past it. It was unknown if it was transient or not. Now it looks transient and so not a big deal. But if that pac look had locked in for weeks by late January it would be very unlikely we go on to much improvement according to past instances. Thankfully that fate has been averted for the time being.

If we get a epo ridge straight through prime climo we are unlikely to do awful. It would take supreme bad luck not to at least score enough snow to get us out of the disaster category. How good would depend. An epo alone really depends on how other factors line up. Your point about blocking is true. But it doesn’t always go down that way. It depends on other factors too. If there isn’t much stj or a string pna/epo ridge it can be a dry pattern. But if there is a -pna or strong stj it can be a string of storms. Remember from Jan 30 to Feb 11 2010 we for 4 significant snows. Even for moderate snows our odds go up with blocking. But it depends on the setup. If we get a full ridge bridge arc with pna epo NAO and the block is too south we end up with 1977. Frigid and dry. But I’ll take my chances. Honestly we haven’t wasted many blocks due to dry lately. It seems we score a very high percentage of times with blocks lately just they are few and far between. So your not wrong but all things equal I would take my chances with the blocking. One last thought...a best of both worlds imo would be periods of transient blocking that isn’t too extreme and waxes and wanes during a consistent epo ridge. That would be less likely to suppress but enough to keep the track under us.

Yea I wasn’t considering that a real issue. Just on that run... I’ll take too much blocking on a long range op run anytime.

Damn that sucks....listening now bringing back memories and feeling old.

Too much blocking. Lol. Squashes everything.

I dunno the force is strong with Friday happy hour.