psuhoffman

I mean the rgem looks like "big storm incoming" and the nam looks like a few snow showers. And we're getting closer to be using the nam at range excuse much longer. Of course once that one stops working the nam just sucks excuse is still valid.

I wonder if govt shutdown is screwing nam No idea. I know the nam can be screwy and way off but this is opposite of its typical error bias. Very strange.

Nice consensus at only 48 hours from the meso's

He was making fun of what chuck said

Slight differences than NAM

The nam looks exactly like my fail scenario. Maybe I should stop making those. They come true way too often.

I know everyone wants Christmas season snow but the best time to get blocking is mid January to March. It correlates to cold and snow here more later in the season than earlier. Dec 09 was great but way more often we waste epic early blocks. Blocking in February is a way better bet.

But it's 2mb deeper by 19!!!!!!

@Bob Chill @frd @C.A.P.E. @WxUSAF Never seen a weeklies snow mean even close to this. Ever... and it's not localized. It buries the whole northern half of the Conus. ETA. It looks more like those old goofy clown cfs snow maps

This is extreme

If that look on the cfs jma and euro is correct for February it would take some monumental bad luck not to end well. Now as @Bob Chill points out there was some luck 2010 in us being the epicenter. But there was a string of snows from the January 30 storm that mainly south of us with the heaviest to the Feb 20 storm that was north. Yea we were the bullseye of that pattern and there is no guarantee that happens again, but you had to get south of Richmond and north of NYC before the results weren't at least "really good" that year. Other nino years with that look during prime climo also delivered. 1964, 1966, 1978, 1987 all ring a bell but they weren't all as good as this look but close at times just not for a month or more . 1958 developed that look but not until later and it still delivered. But they all delivered at least good results. I cant think of any modoki ninos where we got that look and failed. 1969 had an awful Pacific pattern muting the nao and the stj was mia much of that year. I know the mei this year is a good match as 40/60 said but I disagree with the pattern match because the stj has been beast this year. That has behaved more like a typical nino than 69. 1995 was just awful start to finish. Pattern never looked like this 2005 was again absent much stj until late (when we did score 2 secs in late Feb) and the pattern was only so so. Some blocking, at times an ok PAC but never great and never in tandem So going off historical reference if the guidance is right about a prolonged month long look like that I highly doubt we don't exceed climo snowfall. Doesn't mean we repeat 2010...that takes luck also but other than Ji we should be happy with the results imo.

Looks familiar

The SST have bee in a weak modoki configuration for months. But it takes 3 consecutive months to declare official. And the atmosphere is just now coupling so if you define by MEI or atmosheric pattern we are just entering now which isn't uncommon for weak modoki events. The SST nino pattern has peaked and will slowly fade the next few months but because of the lag on making it official it will be declared as the nino is actually fading. Where we go after that is ambiguous at this time. I'm going to enjoy the ride the next 2 months THEN we can worry about next years enso state.

I should copyright that quick! Lol

I don't think he posts in good faith. At first I thought he was just a bad poster but I'm pretty sure he is just trolling now. Either way he has now entered the short list of posters I will just scroll past and ignore.

I kinda expected but still good to confirm. I know I am an optimist and even in a bad year I will try to put as positive a spin as I can. I will just turn to hunting a single fluke snow that can happen in even the worst years. But I guess one of the reasons I got into it with Becky on twitter was I took offense to the insinuation that I was "hyping" and only seeing what I want to see. I don't honk like this over "epic" long range patterns unless I really feel strongly in the potential. I'm not always right but I'm not hyping. This makes sense. I didn't start out in the fall with any preconceived notions. When I started compiling the analogs it was clear that we were going into this winter with many of the same characteristics as some big years. And minus a couple outliers they shared a lot of commonality all pointing towards a big second half. So when seasonal and sub seasonal guidance started showing what the analogs said was favored it just made sense. It wasn't a matter of me model hugging. I thought the guidance was right because it matched what history suggested could happen in this type of winter. I don't mind when people point out when I'm wrong and I don't mind when they disagree or deb but I hate having my integrity questioned. I called for an epic pattern flip because I truly excited an epic pattern flip. I'm not spiking the football. A good pattern isn't the same as good snow but getting the pattern is step one. Now we need a little luck. Or with that look it's more we just have to not have bad luck. Hopefully we go from tracking the pattern to measuring the snow soon!

The only thing failing is your analysis

The icon comes out faster then the gfs so than we have to wait.

With this look you would think "we can't miss" lol

Yes. Today's EPS was even better but the weeklies have been rock solid for a month on where this is going. They struggled with the transition, first too fast and then too slow but they haven't flinched once on the end result. The euro and U.K. Seasonal always concurred and now the cfs and jma has come around to the same look. It's almost totally unanimous across all long range guidance which is pretty impressive given their erratic nature and the chaos at that range.

What goes well as a side dish with Icon?

Add the jma to the list of guidance that evolves to a clone of all our biggest snow periods by February! Not that it looks bad before but my god if all the guidance is right about where this is going..!!!

What if that energy crashing southern cali that llinks up and totally crushes the lead wave ends up becoming a caboose. Lol

"But the day 10 op..." -snowman5921

We would have killed for these looks a week ago. He can deb all he wants over a day 10 op run. I also think we need to realize the next 10 days are the transition not THE pattern. I still think the core of our winter is Jan 20-feb 20 and maybe longer. If the first threat doesn't pan out it doesn't mean we're in trouble.