psuhoffman

Gfs ends well. I guess if you can’t get it on the front you take it in the back.

I was talking about Jay.

November doesn’t count now?

@Ji you have had 2 warning events and it’s not even the half way point of our snow climo yet in a winter where the second half is supposed to be the better half. Oh and you were having this mini melt down with 10” of snow in your yard. Maybe you need to reboot whatever part of your brain is responsible for PERSPECTIVE!!!

Ji your too much man.

The pattern has already changed in case you haven’t looked outside lately. But it’s in transition. The evolution to the end result will take 10-15 days. During that time we can score. We just did but it’s not perfect and rain is a threat. Chill out.

There was one head fake run around Xmas that went right to the NAO block in mid January but there have been 6 weekly runs since so why you holding onto that? You knew that was out. But this is the last weekly run everyone was celebrating for the time period coming up. I see a war and a pna ridge too far west to offset it. This looks about like what is coming. So why you shocked. It was after this week in question that things got epic. Enjoy your 11” otg and have some freaking patience.

I don’t agree with your assessment the WAR has been a consistent problem. It’s popped up at times but 90% of the time from November 10 until now the predominant storm track has been under us. A few storms cut but most the problem was lack of cold due to a crap pac not Atlantic. One storm was suppressed. So I don’t see how a west track from a WAR has been a seasonal trend. Second the long range guidance has been doing fairly good with the mean long wave pattern. There were a couple head fakes but mostly they have been ok. So when everything...EVERYTHING (geps,GEFS,eps, Cfs and euro weeklies, uk seasonal, JMA weeklies) everything says the NAO will go negative and those models are supported by the sst analogs, I think I should flip the question and ask you what objective evidence you have to doubt what every piece of evidence is indicating?

That one might be even more likely to truly cut. The pna gets temporarily beat down on all guidance and the trough is amplifying unto the central US with the war not yet into NAO territory. That’s a strong cutter signal. The next 2 weeks has potential for some frozen but if your expecting a blitz and snowpack building you are likely going to be frustrated. Once the NAO goes negative then frozen will be favored over rain every threat and given the stj keeps throwing waves at us every few days that should end well.

The next 2 weeks reminds me of 94 for sure. But you adjust the boundary 50 miles south and 94 would have been great and that is an insignificant change in an overall sense. I agree the pattern favors to our NW but I could see how it works out. But after that is when things really look good.

GEFS is a shotgun of solutions. A few pure rainers. Mostly mixed events. Some front end like the op. Others cut then develop a trailing wave that flips to snow. And a few pure snow solutions. A lot of ice in there. But if were being optimistic it was an improvement over 6z even considering a lot of that “snow” is actually ice.

@Bob Chill I wish I could see the h5 composites to compete the tpv locations and war but I do remember the AO and NAO were pretty positive in 94. So with a neutral NAO and negative AO perhaps that argues for a slightly better outcome.

Agree with that analogy to last Feb. Difference is this year the base state is much less hostile as we transition the next 2 weeks so we could catch a break. Last year the pattern did start to flux in mid Feb and we caught that low end event from the frontal wave but in general we were stuck in a Nina torch so we had to wait for the NAO to tank to have a shot. This year we have already scored during the flawed but ok transition pattern and could again. I decided to wait until after the early 12z guidance comes in to make my full pattern post during the dead time later. Don’t want to distract from the guidance analysis. But I’m 50/50 on our chances to score a big hit (we likely see some snow given the plethora of chances) during the next 2 weeks and very optimistic after.

I remember in 94 when I lived in Herndon VA we drive up to Harrisburg one weekend. My dad has a meeting there and took us along. It was March I think. And I was shocked once we got north of Frederick how there was still a glacier on the ground. Like a foot of hard packed snow. And huge piles everywhere. It was obvious they had a much different winter. But no two years are exactly alike. It’s true a -epo war pattern favors north. Storms tend to run the boundary and the boundary moves around but the further north the better chance that more of the storms stay south of you. 2014 might have been the south end of what can happen in that pattern. But 1994 isn’t necessarily the most likely outcome either. 2015 is kind of an in between scenario. No way to know how it plays out until it does.

That chart is the NAO. The TPV is initially centered too close to the NAO domain to allow it to go very negative. The AO looks better with higher heights favored over the arctic circle in general. All the long range guidance begins to weaken the tpv and retrograde the atl ridge into the classic NAO space towards late January. I’m about to make a post on how I see this going in general but I’m not worried.

Mjo is just a fancy way of saying where the tropical convection is in the western PAC and Indian Ocean. That is important. Same reason the enso is. Most of the heat being added to the atmospheric equation is from the tropics and so where that is drives the bus on the mid latitude long wave pattern.

The weather has been fine. Most of this forum will be ahead of climo even if we don’t get another inch of snow in January, which is very unlikely given the train of storms coming. You are correct the system next weekend favors rain att over snow but it’s not locked, there are ways it could work. And if not so what it’s one storm. We will have plenty of more chances. And finally the problem with you is you are like the long range version of snjokoma where all you do it point out what looks bad and then repeat it over and over and over. And your not even in your home forum. You aren’t here in good faith. Most are here because they enjoy the weather and like to track and get something positive out of this experience. You are here to annoy people and it’s pathetic.

There is a 6/18z eps to 144. But he is still a tool.

So are you

Sucks for you since you got nothing this weekend. I would tell you to go discuss it in the PA forum but they are good people also and I don’t wish you on anyone.

Gfs isn’t gonna be all rain that’s for sure.

I’ve always liked them not as a end all but if guidance diverges much they often hint which way guidance will trend or bust. I’m too dispondent from my epic fringing and Eagles loss to read them now. I’ll see if I can bring myself to look tomorrow. ...they aren’t in range yet.

No I was in PA that year.

They aren’t perfect but guidance often shifts towards them when they disagree. In the case a compromise was best.

I’ve had storms where I got 10+ and DC ~2”. I can’t remember one where I got 10+ and as close as where got 10” today got that little. I’m sure he’s happened but not recently.