psuhoffman

Didn't you just deb your way to 10" of snow last weekend?

I am not really upset about this one...never liked it much once it became obvious what the setup was...but its still a bit frustrating to miss one storm just to the south and now another just to the north. When this week if over a snowfall map is going to have a pretty depressing hole over my house. I know no one in DC will sympathize with that but I am not used to being in the snowhole.

Need that TPV to relax some first...right there its suppressing everything, squashing the PNA ridge far enough south that its squashing the STJ completely. Relax that and you will see the pacific systems start to cut under the EPO/PNA ridge again and split flow will resume. There is no reason to think otherwise. The reason its not there is really obvious and its not that the STJ just suddenly died, its just being squashed by that blue ball of death sitting in southern Canada.

Oh well..living on the southern edge of snow 72 hours out is never a good place to be.

no update on the UKMET yet?

you ninja'd me this time. I was just about to say...you relax that TPV just a slight bit day 15 and that is a HECS look right there. As is it squashes a system just to our south...but its day 15. I also am not sure that miller b day 13 would really transfer that far north...the initial wave has some STJ interaction and is coming across pretty far south and then just jumps everything way out. The GFS cant get tomorrow right sometimes so expecting it to handle that kind of thing day 13 is crazy. Mid range hit and then the long range held several good opportunities. Good run.

Likely...or a NS system could run across to our north and just not do much of anything but drop the boundary through then a southern system rides up...that was the GGEM idea from yesterday. Both are possible...so is the consolidated cutter idea from todays GGEM. I can see how each works...but I, and no one else frankly, has the skill to be able to tell which is going to happen for sure from this range. The key is going to be how the various vorts associated with that trough interact. If they phase into one storm its going to cut because the trough axis is to our west and there is a killer WAR. If we can get them to eject separate and get multiple waves the first could pull the thermal boundary to our south and then we can get a weaker wave to ride up the coast.

@frd @Bob ChillLooks like the GFS got its mojo back lol

If we are going to debate miller-b's the way they CAN work for us in the rare case where the NS system is healthy and coming across BELOW our latitude and the trough axis is centered west of our latitude...in other words the system is digging unusually far south in the midwest and the coastal is likely to develop close to the coast not way OTS then swing back in to clip Boston. It's rare to get that...and it takes extreme blocking usually, but it has happened. If you want to see an example look at the end of the ICON, that NS system coming across is likely to transfer to a coastal but where that is diving in at we would have a shot there. A system coming across the lakes is going to transfer to a low too far north for us. A general rule is the coastal will develop at the same latitude the NS vort is at when the transfer happens (the surface low will usually start to develop to the southeast along the inverted trough connecting the NS and coastal front but the coastal typically wont bomb out and really develop a healthy CCB until its at the same latitude as the NS vort and the whole system phases in)...AND once a coastal is north of our latitude we are pretty much done for...barring the kind of miracle stall/back in scenario that happens once in a lifetime. So...for us to win in a miller b we want to see the NS vort diving down pretty far south in the midwest and then we want the trough axis to be going neutral or negative at our longitude.

In fairness the GFS cut back on the snow in northern MD from about 6" to 3" so it did shift the WAA thump north but that was not really due to the storm going north but simply meso scale features and where and how heavy the WAA thump sets up.

I will see if I can find any...but unfortunately I think they are gone. I had them posted on eastern but obviously that is no more...and both the computer and external drive I had them saved on died a long time ago...so I am not sure I have them anymore.

Yes to the 30 from Feb 10...but it was only about 25" here from the Feb 5 storm. The miller b on the 10th was just perfect here... Manchester was under that crazy heavy band of WAA snow that set up along the mason dixon line the night before...before the coastal even started to form...and I had a few hours of the heaviest snow I have ever seen. I had 12" from that in like 3 hours. Then when the coastal bombed it was a perfect wind trajectory for the upslope enhancement here...heavy snow just kept going all day the next day. It was at least 30" but it was very hard to measure...wind was crazy, blowing things into just amazing drifts. I had pictures of snow up to roofs around town. Some of the people around me put down more than 30 but I have no way to know for sure...it was a sh!t ton of snow...that much I know.

I had 30 thank you very much!

Well in fairness to Ji...had that storm been 20 miles further north and he had ended up with 4" instead of 12 or whatever he got...he would have been completely devastated that places 20 miles north of him got 12-20". So yea for his purposes it was a very close call...and he is right in that MOST miller b systems stay to our north with the significant impacts...we can get some snow but usually the 10" plus totals are Philly north. He doesn't care about 3", if he doesnt get the bullseye its crap.

Nope both the SOI and MJO look to be pretty ambiguous heading out in time.

Ehh...looking at the mslp anomalies going through the next 16 days...the soi looks neutral to positive right through. But that is not because of high pressure near Tahiti...there is some convection and forcing there where we want it...but there is even more lower pressure near Australia where we don't. How that shakes out is above my pay grade.

@Ji the boundary looks to stall near the east coast beteeen the 24-26 and something could come from that. But you’re right after that the mother load of cold drops the hammer and as probably go dry with clippers as our only hope for a while. We need that tpv to weaken. It will. Maybe a week. 10 days at most. But the stj didn’t die it’s just being suppressed by an extreme pattern. That’s not the same thing. If the blocking holds like guidance suggests we would get favorable periods. And this could break right. We get some snow on the front of this then extreme cold and clippers can be fun.

I’m pretty sure the gfs op drank some of jobu’s rum and will come around to the right idea eventually but it’s odd it’s been so consistently off the same way. It’s seeing something different for some reason. That look there is excellent. So was the eps today.

It’s odd. The GEFS disagrees and so does the eps. But the op gfs and fv3 have been consistent in having the complete opposite look for 4 runs in a row now. They didn’t trend that way if just flipped on a dime. 18z yesterday had that great blocking look and then the next run was a raging positive AO/NAO and it’s been that way ever since.

the Op gfs is being stubborn with the blocking. Ever since this run 18z yesterday it’s gone to this...

Guidance has trended away from that but it could go back. If the PV drops a lobe in and phases the whole thing will bomb to our west. But right now guidance is ejecting everything in weak waves. Wave one will go to our north but it could drive the boundary through then something behind it could swing out around the front side of the trough. If anything consolidates it will likely cut but multiple waves rotating around the PV works for us.

Pretty dry. Mean precip doesn’t go up much after day 8

Who gives a crap what Boston gets???

Not really, mostly southeast of us. DC gets fringed. I get nothing. I mean it’s in fantasy range but that’s a pretty pathetic fantasy. Looks nice for like Richmond and the southeast though.

Trolls gonna troll man