psuhoffman

Looks familiar

Agree. Right now I am cautiously optimistic. For the last several weeks the monthly and seasonal guidance has been showing a flip to a raging positive AO blowtorch pattern coming just outside the "somewhat believable" 2 week ensemble range. But as we progress that change keeps getting pushed back in time so that it is always just outside that 2 week range. November was supposed to be a torch. Now December. As long as that flip keeps getting pushed back and stays outside the 2 week range where ensemble guidance has had some skill lately I am starting to feel more and more hopeful that its a mirage and the seasonal guidance is miscalculating a key pattern driver and coming up with the wrong conclusions, similar to last year. This year is a bit more puzzling to me wrt seasonal guidance though imo. Last winter I totally understood their mistake, it was the same one almost all the humans made. We all saw the global sst patterns and what past analogs looked like and there was almost unanimous support for a winter that looked like the seasonal guidance suggested. But the atmosphere failed to behave according to expectations. Certain things went haywire, the MJO decided to go ape into warm phases through the core of winter and the enso failed to couple with the atmosphere. But I wasn't one to be crapping on the guidance because I made the same error. The error was easy to see though. This year I am not even sure what the seasonal guidance is seeing. The analogs now are a lot harder to find, and less obvious, with way more conflicting signals this year. So perhaps I am missing something. A lot of the mid and high latitude signals match up more with an el nino than a neutral so its hard to find good matches. A lot of the best pattern matches in other ways are stronger el nino years like 2002/3 so its hard to put much stock into them. But I have seen nothing in the analogs to this current pattern to suggest we are heading towards a raging dumpster fire year. Most of the best matches were decent years with a lot of variability. None of them looked like the seasonal guidance. So if they are wrong again, hopefully, I am less sure why they are doing what they are doing this time.

I’m not buying them either...just pointing out the new weeklies already push back the flip to an awful pattern.

New weeklies (based on last nights EPS) continue to push back the seasonal idea. Weeks 3-5 look ambiguous now but not hostile. Things go sideways week 6 but that’s where they have had no skill for a long time so I dont care. Week 3 week 4 week 5

Cross polar flow is great if you want to go ice fishing. But we don’t need it for snow. Air that originated in northern Canada will be cold enough to snow even if it was above normal for them!

@C.A.P.E. @Bob Chill Euro ens still looks good to me heading towards December. This look probably won’t get it done in late November but I would take it during peak Climo. And still no signs of the flip up top that the seasonal guidance expects.

A true NAO block is very rare. When it happens we have a high score rate. But the general tendency of ridging in the AO and NAO regions lately I would gladly buy during winter and take my chances.

@C.A.P.E. PS. The climo models weren’t the basis of my forecast last year either. I only bought them because they matched my analogs and expectations. When I saw in mid January things weren’t going as expected I had my mini melt down. Good or bad the long range seasonal guidance has such awful skill it’s not worth much.

The seasonal and monthly guidance has all continued to busy badly even at 1 month leads. The ensembles have been doing better lately our to day 14 or so. After that guidance continues to go off on a tangent. The climo models busted on the current pattern from range. So I really don’t give them any thought and that has nothing to do with the fact I don’t like what they show. I don’t ignite things I dont like. I do ignore things I don’t think have any validity.

For December I would settle for a "workable" pattern given what we typically deal with lately.

If we start December like this I am happy

@Bob Chill 1961-2 was one of the greatest "forum divider" winters in history. DC had a mediocre winter with only 15" at DCA, but BWI recorded 35" and Winchester and my area had over 50". That is unusual. There was a storm on xmas eve that dropped a general 4-8" snowfall to the NW of DC but was mostly rain in the city. There were a few moderate 3-4" storms in February that were similar and then a big storm early March that was mostly rain in DC but a HUGE snowfall to the NW of the city. It must have been fairly cold because the local coop up here recorded 40 days of snowcover that year which is high even for up here. It was also an above normal snowfall winter at most locations north of DC. Seems DC was just on the SE fringe of where the boundary set up that winter for the handful of significant snowstorms. But no 2 years are exactly the same...so of course if that were to play out again...and the boundary were 50 miles south we all win. If its 50 miles north...we all lose. Or we get a repeat and the DC area tries to kick the northern 1/3 of the region out of the sub-forum.

Where is Ji?

He just “looked” faster the way he ran. Sleek like you said. Also the comparable speeds of the game are different. Lamar is definitely faster, but defenses were slower, especially linebackers and safeties, back then. So it’s hard to compare.

Lol. Ok I generally root for the Ravens since I work in Baltimore and I like the coach. But even if it was an Eagles game and they were up on a 1-7 team by 40 points I would be pretty bored with it at this point.

Sorry I don’t usually stop to talk to the guy on the corner screaming on a soap box...but I was bored. The games all suck right now.

I didn’t take it as a slight, just saying imho they were comps in terms of running production. Slightly different styles. Cunningham had perhaps slightly more speed/agility while Jackson has a little more power to him. But in terms of effectiveness they had/have similar results.

You need to redirect your fire into more productive advocacy methods.

Cunningham had his running skills. But when Cunningham would inevitably come up against a good disciplined defense in the playoffs that could contain that part of his game he couldn’t orchestrate the offense within a system well enough to win. A lot of that may have been the fault of crappy offensive coaching with the Eagles. If not for a choked kick he might have won a SB with the Vikings late in his career. We will find out if Lamar is better at that soon. He certainly has better coaching. I’ve loved Harbough since he was the Eagles teams coach way back.

No but enough people electing enough representatives that want to try can start to move things in the right direction. Your posts here are not going to help at all!

It makes sense since most of the other pattern drivers are in a state most common with a nino. On top of that the enso is warm neutral so not like it’s that far off. That might be a bad sign for December but good for winter since some of the nino analogs that fit in other ways were the better years. But I tended to toss them because enso differences are hard to ignore but perhaps of this behaves like a nino... Btw have you seen any good studies on why every so often a nino year bucks the trend of warm December? 2/3 go mild, but then there are years like 2002 and 2009. Those years had opposite North Pacific sst patterns so there isn’t an easily identifiable cause. Both featured NAO help in December where most other ninos the NAO didn’t cooperate until later. But that isn’t very helpful in a predictive way without establishing causality.

I guess I’ve just become used to it.

That’s worth noting, but it’s an extremely small sample, and those years had very little else in common wrt pattern drivers. The north pac wasn’t very similar in those years and in a year with a weak enso influence that’s a big deal. Probably as big a deal as the IOD.

That’s what we do. Blow one game somewhere...then whine when we’re not in the playoffs with one loss as if we can’t figure out that as a “second tier” big 10 team we have to run the table to get in.

You realize most here agree with you on principle. We just can’t stand your methodology and solvency (or lack of). Junking up our forum with this crap isn’t going to affect any change. You should redirect your energy towards supporting political candidates that agree with your position. Join an interest group and help lobby our policy makers. And if you are going to advocate personally do it in a way that will attract people to your position, not frustrate them and alienate them. By presenting yourself how you do here you are actually pushing people that might agree with you away. You come off as a cook and that actually hurts your cause. You need to seriously reconsider your methodology here.