psuhoffman

12z GEFS was a weenie run. It’s a weird convoluted pattern but it aims wave after wave at us with cold around. Ok back to shredding the pow pow

Don’t know. But put me in the camp that thinks this is tropical forcing related. Every time that looks cooperative we get epic looking model runs. Then when that looks worse suddenly the pattern degrades. Seems an obvious link. Let me be clear the look isn’t a shutout and with cold around it likely will snow some even in that pattern but it’s a matter of expectations. That look is not what the analogs suggested and I’m not one that claims victory through the back door. If that is the actual pattern I busted. I don’t care if we get 50” that isn’t what I predicted.

Ok that isn’t awful and it can work but...if you totally flipped those colors around that would be a pretty good looking pattern too and that’s not a good thing.

Connection issues up here. Sleet did make it to Killington. Got 14” first though. Hopefully it flips back soon. Pellets in the face is no fun.

Sleet in Killington right now. 16 degrees.

Hate to say it but the tropical forcing has retreated to unfavorable locations and suddenly the pac wants to revert. I know some hate tracking the mjo and enso but tropical forcing really does drive the show. ETA: we can snow in February with a less than perfect pacific if the blocking holds. But if the pac is going to puke we need the Atlantic perfect. That ridge will kill us IF the pac goes unfavorable. It’s not a disaster look but it’s not the great look guidance was selling a week ago.

Let me make this perfectly clear since you haven’t taken any of the hints...no one here gives a sh!t what you think. You are a troll. You never say a thing when it’s snowing or looks good then you show up to exaggerate when it looks anything less than perfect. This isn’t even close to your right region. Most people here are in good faith. They enjoy this hobby and get some positive experience from it. You are just here to annoy people. You are PATHETIC!

Southern New England was expecting a pretty good snow and it turned into a messy mix. They have been having a truly awful winter for their climo too.

Ji this morning...

They had their own meltdown today over the snow bust up here.

Showmethesnow was in Vegas, I was skiing in Vermont and you took the morning off and all hell broke loose. I checked in and was like lol what is this mess.

We really need you to stop worrying about details on 300 hour op runs.

Both

To annoy us all

F him, he would say it looked like crap no matter what but it is dry. Could be a blip but this run suddenly lost that nice train of systems in the long range.

EPS is bone dry after the rain this week. And what little qpf there is is from a few amped up cutters that rain. The look didn’t change appreciably from the last few runs but suddenly it lost the moisture feed.

You certainly didn’t change.

There are places to hide on the backside at Killington that aren’t that bad. And with a beginner in tow that terrain is nice anyways. Just don’t want ice pelting me in the face.

I’m with my 4 year old son and that area is less kid friendly. I love Sugarbush. We are staying in Rutland though and doubt we can make it up there in the morning given the weather. Might even struggle to get to Killington. Thanks for the input.

So much for powder here. See busts don’t just happen for us. When I picked a spot 2 days ago Killington was north of the best snow on most guidance but I anticipated a north trend. Not enough apparently as it looks like a sleet fest here now.

Should I be worried about sleet here at Killington tomorrow now? Really don’t want pellets hitting me in the face. That seems crazy but that warm layer keeps trending north every run. Starting to wonder if I should have gone further north to Bush Stowe or Smuggs.

Back to teaching my son to ski. Overnight wasn’t the greatest run ever but the freak out was lol. I’ll update in banter on the storm later.

The one legit criticism I’ll give the upcoming pattern is we need the PV to weaken and get away from Baffin Island. That’s a bad spot for us. The great looks depended on the idea the tpv would weaken and allow high pressure across Canada. If the tpv becomes stubborn the pattern becomes good but not great. The mini melt down in here is silly though. The 6z runs had plenty of potential.

What is going on in here????

Shocked but GEFS doesn’t agree with that mess.