psuhoffman

So you think it's a good idea to prefer the operational over the ensembles at day 8-9. Good to know. Truth is it COULD cut...that option is very much on the table, so is OTS, and your point about the PV location (although not all guidance agrees) is valid, BUT we all know that. No one thinks that threat is a lock. And the fact is you never have anything good to say, even in the face of some of the best runs in years you will pop up to say "but that might not happen" or "we will fail anyways". So nothing you say has any cred since all you ever do is pop in to say something negative no matter what the guidance actually looks like.

By the end of this weekend many in this forum will be about where they should be (or better) for climo to this date and with an epic looking pattern ahead during our best snowfall climo part of the year. So your main point always seems to be "but we could fail". Really...thanks for that captain obvious. How bout we wait until we DO FAIL before we ruin our day and deb about it. Go back under whatever rock you crawled out of.

LOL I am not complaining...as obviously over any period of time I will win way more than lose and the "fringe" thing is mostly a joke now, BUT in these kinds of moderate events it can and has happened a bit more often then you think. The late Feb 2007 storm, March 2009, January 2010, The first March 2014 storm, Twice in Feb 2015... its possible for the urban corridor to get more than me. Not DCA they will record 1" even if everyone around has 4 but in general it does happen sometimes and this is the kind of situation where it COULD. Not saying I would bet on it... I don't need much qpf to win up here...even with less than ideal temperatures I typically have very good ratios here on this ridge and I am aware of it...but if the trend to tighten up the system continues and the ccb development ends up robbing the moisture transport into the WAA snow to the north it is possible we see a situation where there is a right cutoff between DC and the PA line. It's rare not impossible. I am not really worried about it yet...and if it happens oh well I will live and I will feel happy for you guys and at least it should improve the mood on this forum for a while!

We won't need a ton of qpf if we get higher ratios...so if we can get a small bump to like .3 we could get 3-5" up here...but if the coastal continues to trend stronger but not strong enough to influence us that could kill our area if it robs the lift and moisture transport from the WAA wave to the north sooner and everything collapses south as the ccb develops. If that ccb then does us no good we end up with weak sauce up here. On the other hand... we are not within another 30-40 mile bump north from having a very good result even up here so its not impossible. We have seen it many times...we had about that much of a north adjustment at the end on the Dec 9 storm only it did us no good since we were 100 miles out of the game that time.

Not sure I like the trend towards more coastal development for us up here. Our best shot was the WAA wave but that will shut off a little faster as the coastal takes over and so we are seeing the gradient tighten up...that could be good for DC and bad for us. Still time for another shift or two but not in love with the new look right now.

That's what happened last December in that little wave...I got 5" of the lightest fluffiest snow imaginable and the local coop reported like .24 qpf and I would be totally good with that again.

I remember, you NAILED that one!

He is just trolling. There is a lot of variance for day 10 right now, as there should be at that range. The pattern continues to evolve better and better and if we get the blocking centered over Greenland towards February we should have an extended window of opportunity. His "its almost February" comment is laughable. Yea after January 20 we have 10 more days of PRIME CLIMO before we get to OUR SNOWIEST MONTH... yep definitely a reason to panic there. He is a joke

I think you have a great chance. Even up here I'm hanging my hat on this...very non scientific point...in all my years in both northern VA, MD and PA I've never ever been fringed by a storm that was fringing me at 36-48 hours out. They always shifted north enough to get me from right on the edge to into the goods. When I got fringed was when at 36 hours I was 75 miles out of it and it trended north 50 miles and fringed me. So just by that very basic biased interpretation we should be good here.

Not gonna lie I'm a little disappointed. I finally got a chance to look over the 6z stuff and after reading all the excitement here I was expecting good things but on the whole there was no improvement for us. Definitely bumped up qpf a lot to our south so if we get that to move north then it's great but if it stayed as is the 6z ribs don't give us anymore snow than the 0z did. Kinda a downer after hearing how good they were but good for D.C. doesnt mean good for northern MD lol.

We're entering the magic final 36 hours close. Could get the typical bump north.

We're fringed though

People think it's the NS. Yea it's part that in so much as the combination of the dominant low to the northeast and the system crashing into the west coast is compressing the whole trough and flattening it. But it's the suppression of the whole h5 trough that's washing out the system not the flow to the northeast. If this system was amped up we would be fine

See my post above. The high isn't the problem. Confluence isn't the problem. Compression of the upper level flow is the pricked.

I make no apologies for my climo. I commute an extra hour every day for my 20 extra inches of snow a year and 10 degree cooler days in the summer. Gfs and Icon so far have put the nam crisis to bed. At this point the coastal idea seems dead but maybe a slightly better trend in the waa and we could still see 3-5" in spots.

Can't beat climo

It's got my Parrs ridge Jack zone so...

Yes but the system is more consolidated. The confluence is not killing us here. The compressed flow from the system crashing the ridge in the west combined with the downstream blocking is what's killing the stj wave. The whole trough is being squeezed and de amplifying. If the confluence was the problem there wouldn't be light snow way up into PA from a weak waa wave. The confluence might even help enhance lift near us by increasing convergence on the northern fringes

Gfs seems more in line with the not nam camp

Thanks.

Because your using a different and significantly more conservative map than the others. And even that map is 1-3 not 0-2. Don't be obtuse.

Not to be a deb but the icon sucks compared to its 18z run.

Thanks. You think some of the reports are just attempts to put public pressure to end the shutdown?

This crap never happens in a rainstorm. There should not be this kind of variance day before a storm. The gfs is still shifting from hot and cold every run. Nam is forecasting for a different planet... It does too happen in a rainstorm. I remember tracking some of those coastal rainstorms in the warm season and there were huge variances between runs and models on where the banding would set up and other details. We just don't care because it's rain. No one notices when they get .2 instead of .5 qpf in a rainstorm.

Thanks. If the American guidance is truly suffering from lack of maintenance and data injestion problems they will only degrade more as this continues. If true it might be best to just start ignoring them to cut down on confusion and noise. It's not like we don't have enough non compromised guidance (rgem/ggem/ukmet/icon/euro). Frankly the verification scores on the gfs before all this started were only running marginally better than the "jv" models and behind the U.K./euro anyways.