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cae

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    Towson, MD

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  1. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Looks like the Euro did a practice run for winter.
  2. cae

    September Discobs Thread

    Another 1"+ so far today. Over 13 inches for the month.
  3. cae

    September Discobs Thread

    Another day, another 1+ inches of rain. Just hit 12 inches for the month. One of my kids hasn't had soccer practice in four weeks.
  4. cae

    September Discobs Thread

    I just noticed that Baltimore could close out the year with average rainfall and still break the annual precipitation record.
  5. cae

    September Discobs Thread

    Thanks - I bookmarked that site. I'm not sure how accurate it is though. That site has me at close to 2" in the last 24 hours through noon today, but my rain gauge has me at nearly 4" through noon today, including over 1" from today's late-morning downpour. Today's rain put me over 9" for the month. Good job by the Euro on picking up on the stripe of heavy rainfall. It didn't get the details right, but none of the other globals saw something like this (though the Ukie was close).
  6. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Euro continues to be the wettest global model for our area. QPF increased from 00z.
  7. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Thanks for the link. Emerald Isle ended up with more in a day than Baltimore has ever recorded in a month.
  8. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Ukie slows Florence down to a crawl as well, a step towards last night's Euro solution. It makes landfall a little faster than the GFS, then it keeps Florence in South Carolina until Sunday evening. But it still doesn't get the impacts up here that the Euro showed. Since that ridiculous 93" run a couple of days ago it has been showing max rainfall totals of 50-60". The 51" it shows today doesn't look so ridiculous now that the GFS is showing 44" nearby.
  9. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Not to dwell too much on North Topsail Beach, but you can see the wall of sandbags and how close the houses are to the water on satellite. https://goo.gl/maps/BfaEikTKQnk
  10. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Thanks. A couple of days ago high risk said it wasn't.
  11. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Question for the experts: I thought the original concern with the GFS stall solutions was not necessarily that the system was stalling (hurricanes sometimes do that), but that the GFS showed Florence intensifying while sitting over the same area of ocean for several days. E.g. this run from Monday. My understanding was that in the real world, there would be significant upwelling under the storm that would cool the sea surface and limit intensification. The GFS (and FV3, from what I understand) might not capture this because there is no coupling between their atmospheric and ocean models. Is that right?
  12. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Yes it does. It includes nearly 32" in 12 hours. And that's after 39" has already fallen. I'm not sure if the Ukie is really showing that or if something went wrong with the weather.us map making algorithm.
  13. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Last night's Ukie on weather.us. I'll take the under.
  14. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Ukie and ICON have a similar idea with a slow landfall near the southern outer banks, then rapid westward motion. North of the GFS / Euro.
  15. cae

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    The folks at the CMC are now scrambling to decouple their atmosphere and ocean models.
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