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The GEPS have been consistently signaling rain for the 24th, and they still are. But now a couple of members are showing big snowstorms around the 30th.

I'm not going to do a model discussion write-up for this storm, because with the exception of one run where the HRDPS did its best NAM impression, the models had pretty good consensus that something like this would happen.

RGEM ensemble got a little better for PA western MD, but still doesn't get much snow past Parr's Ridge.

Went to bed with 0.5" on the ground and woke up with about 1.3". Nice surprise.

Includes sleet. The NAM came south, but Kuchera paints a more realistic picture.

Still some light snow here. 1/2" on the ground.

RGEM ensemble looks to be in line with the Euro.

The ICON is not a bad model. I think last year it seemed to struggle more with big storms, but I'd rather see it showing snow than no snow. The FV3 generally posts better verification scores than the GFS and has done better than the GFS for our last two storms.

I was just looking at that. The CMC has had that storm for three runs in a row, and now the FV3 has had it for its last two. It's still out in fantasy land though, and it doesn't have a lot of support in either the GEFS or GEPS.

Thanks, got it.

I tried to PM a response to this, but it wouldn't go through. (Sorry everyone else.) I post the RGEM ensemble because I know some people here like seeing it, but if you don't I wouldn't take offense if you put me on ignore. fwiw, I think yoda is one of the best posters on this forum.

12z RGEM ensemble. There's not a lot of support for something like what the HRDPS showed.

HRDPS goes all in. At least it knows where Parr's Ridge is.

The clown map for last night's CMC run made me laugh.

RGEM ensemble cut back from the 12z run, especially in western areas.