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MD Snow

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About MD Snow

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Pasadena, MD 21122

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  1. People are giving up on this winter because models aren't giving them nice bright colored snow maps in the next 10 days. So it must be over right? I mean come on. March is hard. I get it. But we still have some players that we haven't had in a long time working for us over the next 2 weeks.
  2. Um...I thought it was still 8 days away? I don't really know how we could call it a threat. More like a window of opportunity. In my mind that window is still very much open. Just a couple weeks ago you would get laughed at around here if you wrote anything off outside of 96hrs. Still 120 hrs out. I know everyone thinks this opportunity is dead but it's not. Block gets a little stronger, primary doesn't drive as far north, pops a low of hatteras instead of ocean city and we're in business for at least some snow tv. 12z navgem kind of hints at this. It really isn't that far fetched.
  3. A 990 off hatteras is still a boom in my book. Love the look at this lead. Still got over 120hrs before we start talking details. CMC has something with the same general idea off the coast at 240.
  4. I know it's a long shot but at 150 hrs out it's not out of the realm of possibilities that northern/eastern areas can at least get some snow tv out of this. 850's are there. I would think you get this thing a little further south and you would start mixing with rates.
  5. Thank you so much for this! Super helpful!
  6. Any other things of note on the EPS? Still a good looking block on the long range or is it backing off?
  7. I think one of the reasons that we are getting responses like this today, is that some were probably expecting some tangible opportunities, trends up in snowfall, and cold to start showing up by now. Models are still going all over the place outside of about 120hrs. We really want to see models start to double down on blocking/snow/cold from here on out. Given it's March, any small shift away from this look is probably some sort of small disaster and a couple of small shifts would equal a major disaster.
  8. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    If we end up with half of what the NAM is showing in terms of accumulations than it's a win. If the band's depicted on the RGEM and NAM's come in and are snow for a time...then I think a couple inches is not out of the realm. If snow, it would would be 1-2" per hr rates. 40/28 with a southeast wind kicking up. Chances of all rain south and east of the cities seem to be on the rise.
  9. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Looks slightly better than it's 6z run with 850's. Keeps N/W of cities below for the whole event.
  10. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    I know it's the HRRR but it does show things staying frozen for more than half of the event.
  11. PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting

    Bottomed out at 29 at 6:30 this morning. Seemed at the lower end of guidance for my area. Up 5 degrees to 34 in 2hrs though....
  12. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    I'm sure there will be some surprises tomorrow though. Could have someone south and east get under a band early on and pick up a quick couple of inches but that's probably the only way they end getting anything substantial.
  13. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    GFS holds it's ground. ICON looks similar to the GFS. NAM's have warmed up a good bit in the upper levels. Unless the EURO holds it's ground tonight...I think this is really a DCA/Balt up 95 north and west storm with little if any accumulations south and east. I know the GFS has played catchup in terms of precip/track with this one but it's been pretty steady with the idea of a warmer storm.
  14. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    What are the chances with the warm layer that we go from snow to heavy sleet mixed with some rain? Any soundings support that idea?
  15. Weekend Snowfest/Rainfest/Mixed Mess?

    Seems like a slight trend so far at 18z. The transfer to the coastal seems to be becoming an issue. Not worth getting worried about yet but something to keep an eye on.