MD Snow

But it's march and we haven't gotten any snow all year...haha

Am I missing something? Are you referring to the fact that it seems to have consolidated around a more OTS solution? Doesn't seem that different at H5. Not a lot of outliers. We are inside of 4 days now. Which is when the GEFS begins to play follow the OP more often. Right? It's always been a long shot and I guess the 18z GEFS drives that home.

No one's really mentioned it but CMC, GFS and EURO all have a coastal idea with cold not that far off for the March 11-12 timeframe. A long shot but something to keep an eye on. Only10 days out now. GFS has been hinting at it for a couple days now. 18z gefs for the timeframe. Not a bad signal 10 days out.

Well, our NS system is currently south of the Aleutian Islands. Still has a lot of real estate to cover. We've all seen crazier shifts happen with less lead time.

The gfs op at 12z and 18z had slight ticks east and less dig with the NS. As you have mentioned, got to have that stop soon or our chances will most likely be toast at any accumulating snow.

Yeah, a slight step back at h5.

One thing that is encouraging up to this point is that things have trended in a positive way over the last 48 hrs basically across all guidance. Which goes against the trend this winter. Famous last words. Hope 12z doesn't lay an egg.

NAM at range but why not?

Agreed. Better look at h5. Trough is further west. Close to something better. Been trending the right way for like 7 runs in a row now. That’s something we haven’t seen all year. It’s march. I’ve seen flakes falling from the sky like 3 times all year. I don’t care about 3”. My bar for any storm at this point is seeing flakes falling from the sky. Also, half the fun for me is tracking. And it looks like we might actually have something to track this week!

ICON has trended positively its last three runs for the Friday threat. It has been the most disjointed over the last 24 hrs. Now develops a coastal and get's snow into interior new England. Through 72 hrs on 0z GFS SS system is slightly further north/west while NS is further south. IMO we want the SS to slow down in order for the northern stream to catch it, phase and pull it up the coast before going out to sea.

Fun to look at...doubt it will have any meaningful impact on wintery conditions for our area. BUT all you can ask is for things to trend in the right direction...and for now it appears to be happening. Looks to be trending to the CMC.

Has there really even been a model that says "yes" with this threat? It's all about the timing/dig of the northern stream and that won't be figured out for another 2-3 days. We all know how this will work out but for the time being I'm glad to have something interesting to keep an eye on. It's about as good as it's been all winter.

Ji got his digital snowstorm via the 0z gfs tonight and PSU’s March rainstorm was a March snowstorm for one run. What a night!

Totally agree. Another thing I have noticed is that for the most part there really hasn't been many surprises inside of 96 hrs. Models have been locking onto a general storm track early on and not wavering all that much in the grand scheme of things.