MD Snow

The further north and longer the primary takes to transfer means a further north transfer favoring areas to our north. I'm not sweating the GFS. Especially after how it handled Thursday's system.

Eh it probably stays north for another 24-36hrs...seems like a familiar situation...only this time when it shifts south it might be a shift in our favor...

Guidance says we've only got 90hrs until our storm forms in the midwest. Getting closer.

Sleet/snow mix in Glen Burnie 21061. 35/20

Crazy good CMC run. Crushes us. Basically snows for 42 hrs from hrs 144-186.

What's the precip map look like on the 6z for the event?

Tonight will come down to where the heaviest precip sets up. The NAM's and HRRR come in hot and heavy while the RGEM and HRDPS keep the heaviest south of DC. It's literally a 50 mile difference but that 50 miles will make the difference IMO whether there's a general .5-1" or 2-4". I hope the NAM's are right.

18z 12k nam at range, so caveats etc... but has some snow into DC at 84 hrs. Also, has the TPV further south and appears to be interacting with the TPV. Not sure if it's acting to suppress or trying to phase a bit...thoughts?

Both the 3k and 12k are hinting at some pretty heavy bands moving from west to east. I'd imagine if someone can manage to get under one of those, rates would be pretty fun and this could be an over-performer for someone.

I mean, it is in it's wheelhouse.... Anything over an inch would be a win for this one imo.

18z 12k Nam holds for a decent front end thump of snow for areas DC north. Side note: I keep going back and forth on whether or not to hook up my plow for this event. I guess I'll do it just to be safe.

Yup. Nothing new. It has never gotten precip into MD for this threat. It was just yesterday that it started to even show a storm. Other than the GFS and GEFS coming back to earth...this threat hasn't really changed imo. The majority of models over the last 48hrs - euro, uk, icon and cmc - have actually trended slightly better or stayed the same.

Gfs, para and cmc in pretty good agreement considering we’re still 4.5 days out. A good 0z suite so far.

Surprised no one mentioned the 12z GEPS. Just looking at total precip on TT and it’s pretty bad. A step back from 0z imo. Any thoughts?

Gfs is the only model that has an issue with thermals.