MD Snow

Judging just by this map, it would appear that the UKIE is similar to the NAVGEM. The NAVGEM is a rainstorm btw.

Thank you for the PBP. Wish everyone would just stop bickering and enjoy tracking and giving analysis about the possibility of a once in 50 year weather event.

I honestly love the 12z euro. It can stay down there for another 24 hrs for all I care. It'll come north....

This is going to be a DCA north and east kind of storm. The SLP formed to far east to throw precip as far west as was depicted yesterday. The ULL was further west than modeled and the coastal was further east than modeled. That's why it took forever to get going. Took longer for the two to interact. And this is why precip is further east than modeled.

GFS is well east with the low placement through 18hrs. It sucks. It's def not tucked whatsoever.

ICON is east and drops less qpf. Remember, if the low trends east and is not tucked we have moisture transport issues. The higher amounts will be to our northeast which has been the trend with every model at 0z so far.

RGEM is further east with the low placement and gives us less qpf.

Simple. It keeps shifting the banding every run. Death band at 12z was over the corridor. Death band at 18z was on the eastern shore. No model has really consistently shown where it's going to set up. It'll be fine.

Rain and Sleet

0z ICON has a similar low placement to the 0z RGEM.

0z NAM appears to be east of 18z with the coastal. Also, h5 not closed off at hr 25, was at 18z. Might not mean anything. Just observing.

Gonna go out on a limb and say CMC is gonna show a ridiculous amount of snow on TT clown map.

Looking at the slp for the coastal on the GEFS and the cluster came west. H5 closes off through our area as well which didn’t happen at 0z. I know it’s time to be paying attention to the ops more in this range. I just think with so many moving pieces ensembles can give us some clues as to where things are headed. Wouldn’t be surprised if 12z is something special.