MD Snow

latest hrrr has a band of sleet/snow coming through the metro's between 6-8am tomorrow morning.

Yeah. Same for me. I'm wondering if LWX still thinks they may have to upgrade to a warning at some point.

Extended 18z hrrr and 18z rgem also support some snow to start for northern areas.

Nice work guys!

Nice 1034 hpc in quebec for Thursday as precip moves in on the 12z gfs. Doubt the cold erodes as fast as shown.

Couldn't it help the Thursday system, if the Tuesday system ends up being a little more amped? Could leave lower heights behind it and more of a colder push in front of the Thursday system. Also, GFS has tended to be overly amped in the medium range. 72-120hrs out.

38/27

It'll be interesting to see how long it takes to flip from a r/s mix to all snow once precip arrives. Is there a chance we start as all snow? Seems like most models have areas around and S/E of 95 getting close to .1" of precip before we flip to snow completely. A quicker flip would be a good sign for accumulation imo.

47/23

It's trended weaker with SLP each of it's last 4 runs.

Yes. Noticed this. It's actually more in line with the timing of RGEM and HRDPS now. Previously, it was about 3 hrs earlier than other guidance on the start time.

Know your climo. I live east of 95. Every once in a while we score but unfortunetely, I've seen this one play out time and time again....

FWIW ICON has ticked the rain/snow line further west each of its last 4 runs. That run was mostly rain for many areas on the eastern shore. One more tick and we're talking mixing into the I95 corridor.

Don't you think the NE turn is because the wave in the plains was faster ejecting and further east this run?

ICON has the next wave further east this run. It seems to not allow the sw to amplify as much when it gets to our latitude. A step back from it's 18z imo.