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jayyy

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About jayyy

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    Ellicott City, MD

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  1. Burst of snow in Columbia! Beautiful out there. More important, how strong does this storm get when it hits water and where does it track? It has an effect on our future rainstorm.
  2. Come on 6z nam ... continue the trend. Don’t do your usual thing and amp this thing up.
  3. A track like that which goes south of us to ocean city, and a more strung out low, is exactly what we need to keep cold air in place and limit warm air from surging ahead of the low aka for it to snow. Literally the only solution that we could squeak a decent snowstorm out of. Especially for the Baltimore area Unlikely to occur...as it’s a lonely outlier, but hell, ya never know... maybe, like last weekend, it is sniffing out a trend early and we see 6z Globals trend that way. GFS, Euro, GGEM, and UKMET all shifted SE tonight. Now.. we just need it to go south another 75 miles and we’re talkin!
  4. UKMET or bust I’ll take that 6-8” it shows and run LOL
  5. jayyy

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    False. Back end changeovers rarely happen. Front end WAA thumps before the CAD erodes happen here frequently. Christmas 01 I believe is like the only major back end thump I can think of and I was in New York for it. Driving rain to 13” of snow on the back end in 6 hours time. A rarity indeed.
  6. jayyy

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    We about to get long range NAM’d?!
  7. jayyy

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    Still plenty of time. Only thing holding back my excitement for Baltimore and northern part of the forum is the trend this year has been to go north, not south. But.. hell, I’ll take one reversal for this storm!
  8. jayyy

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    Yep. I imagine the mods aren’t trying to make a third post for the same storm due to people jumping off the cliff a few days after most of us received warning level snowfall. I know, not everybody did, but the rate of weenie suicide on this board is asisnine. Love everybody here! We just get a bit.... emotional.
  9. jayyy

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    ^ yep. Trend is our friend currently. And please people, do not freak out if today still shows an ice or rain event. As long as it continues to show a flatter solution and less phasing than yesterday, and especially if the western ridge pushes east and the high up north is positioned better in New England instead of the plains, we could still be in the game.
  10. jayyy

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    6z will be whacky again. Extremely amped I assume, per usual. I am however intruiged to see if 12z tomorrow continues the trend of moving the western ridge east and less interaction between the jet streams. Ideally, the shortwave never ejects from the southwest and we see another southern slider like last weekend. as bob said, a late partial phase would be ok too.
  11. jayyy

    January/February Medium/Long Range Disco

    I feel like a broken record... stop writing off storms 3+ days out guys. SERIOUSLY. Models had 1-2” for us last Wednesday for the weekend storm. We’re not even close to being out of the game. Two Rules of thumb... 1) if all of the pieces aren’t on the coastal plain yet, models likely have zero clue what to do with themselves. 2) never discount a storm when there’s still a storm to pass before it. Models need to see what the leading storm does (strength, track, how it effects the jet stream and overall 500 mb look) How often do models underdo the cold shot after a storm passes by? How often do models not pick up the fact that a leading storm has suppressed the flow for a second storm? How often do models depict a high pressure coming in “too late”, just to trend right as we get closer? Tonight’s trends went WILDLY in the right direction. Gfs trended from having 52 and rain to 35 degrees for the same timeframe (6z Sunday) in Baltimore proper. EC went from having a few inches in PA, to dumping a foot plus to the MD/PA border. HUGE improvements and a long way to go. Baltimore and points north still have a 25% chance in my eyes of seeing significant snowfall. More like 15% for DC and points south.
  12. jayyy

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    By the way... fellow HoCo residents... that band to our north is about to pivot ESE toward the ocean. Snow is picking back up. Again. Need 0.5” to hit a foot.
  13. jayyy

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    Everything shifted north, as myself and many others warned could happen with this setup. Stinks for that area. Not complaining here in MD however.
  14. jayyy

    January 12-13th Cold Smoke Obs and Nowcast

    Sinking air to the east as a result of of intense rising air to your west. The storm’s location never allowed for the bands to pivot east. No worries. Well all hopefully cash in this weekend!!
  15. jayyy

    January Medium/Long Range Discussion

    GFS from this evening for this weekend BTW... hahaha. Wow
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