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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. Talk about a gradient. 54” in orchard park. Less than 6” less than 20 mins away. Lol. .
  2. That’s exactly why it will pan out. Sorry my friend .
  3. Exactly. Give us a cold air source and an active pattern and let’s roll the dice. I’ll take that over last years warm and painful start any day of the week. .
  4. What an incredible last 12 hours or so up here snow chasing in Buffalo. .
  5. Here at my alma mater - the university at Buffalo south campus. Things have gone downhill VERY quickly. That band already looks insane. Expecting at least 3 feet at my location by tomorrow night. .
  6. Love seeing WWAs and WSWatches up to our west and north. It’s just a matter of time before that’s us, ladies. Have a feeling this winter will come in with a bang and that we will see our first appreciable snowfall before meteorological winter begins - including BAL & DC. Bold, I know, but the look we’re seeing on models right now is reminiscent of some great patterns of past years. In the shorter term - the window between next Saturday and Monday intrigues me a bit personally. While chances to materialize aren’t necessarily high due to climo, it’s certainly at least worth watching as we will have cold air entrenched and plenty of energy in the general vicinity. Wouldn’t be shocked whatsoever if areas west of the fall line saw some flakes between now and next weekend. Especially in PSU country. PS - not sure if anyone else tracks early season lake effect, but I graduated from the university at Buffalo over a decade ago and tracking it has stuck with me all these year. Looks like Buffalo proper is about to get leveled. 2+ footer of paste for the downtown area into the northern suburban between Thursday night and Sunday looking pretty like. So awesome. .
  7. Up in Perrysburg OH this weekend for a college buddy’s wedding. It went from 66 degrees and sunny yesterday to 34 and snow today. Fatty flakes too. Not really sticking to much but cartops, but beautiful nonetheless. Definitely feel bad for my friends who have to move their wedding indoors due to the snow Winters almost back lads! This wave for next week looks somewhat interesting for us down in the DMV. Could see a bit of snow fall. From the typically colder areas from PSU over to Northern carroll and points WNW, particularly along the Allegheny front in WVA and W MD. Climo says it’s likely snow tv for 90%+ of us and a sloppy, cold rain near I-95, but we’ve seen crazier stuff happen in November. Thanks for the updates @Cape! Been waiting a year to see your wonderful posts. #SetupMaster
  8. 30 and snowing pretty hard right now. On march 28th. Wicked.
  9. Oh no! The GFS lost its 18-24” forum-wide snow for April 1st. Guess our chances of that happening are officially over ***sarcasm**** On a serious note… long range models seem to be honing in on the 29th - 1st as a window where we could potentially see cold air and precip line up. Another perfect timing, thread the needle type situation. What could possibly go wrong, right? Suppose the million dollar question is how cold is this air mass, if it arrives, being that it’ll be March 29th - April 1st? We’d likely have to bank on snow falling at 32-33 degrees with precip falling overnight to see anything meaningful accumulate, unless we saw heavy enough rates to overcome the ugly ground truth of April in the mid Atlantic. On a scale of 1-10… my interest in this “potential” is a 2 right now. It is 9+ days out and there are a million and a half reasons why this will likely fail. If the GFS, Euro and Canadian are honking a snowstorm come day 3-4, then riddle me interested.
  10. Gfs and Euro have been hinting at the 25th-1st timeframe for a few days now. 18z GFS
  11. Stop it. Really? Imagine having this exact look… but in late January. It could snow with this look - especially up this way. Originally from New York, so I never completely rule out the chance of an April snow. Seen far too many of them occur. Big Spring storm meets JUST cold enough air at night. Difficult? Very. Impossible? Nope. Only have to look back a year or two for April snows in these parts. Odds would be severely stacked against us, but I’ve seen worse if this was indeed the exact look we had at 500mb Doubt the pattern unfolds exactly as depicted here anyway, but yea, that’d be something wouldn’t it?
  12. Interesting how the two storms I didn’t really care to track (the first and final) ended up being 2 of the top 3 snowfall for the winter
  13. 6” verification coming in short order. 0.25” shy with heavy snow falling again. Solid swath of snow running from PA down through VA
  14. Eh. Temps are in the upper 20s here now and making their way to the coast. March sun certainly isn’t as friendly as January or early February but decent snow and 28-30 degrees will still stick in march. What’s your temp at?
  15. Finally. Time for a little stat padding for the northern crew. Radar looks good
  16. Winter storm warning updated to say up to an additional 2” from 1130a-3p. About right I’d say based on the snow I saw from 1130-12 and the snow moving back in now. Radar doesn’t look half bad. I reckon upslope should kick in like a M0F0 this afternoon and this evening out west
  17. Here we go. Round 2 commence. Precip picking back up
  18. Batch of precipitation over the Cumberland area appears to be intensifying a bit as it heads east. Should be here by 1230-1
  19. Not sure 60s yesterday has anything to do with it. If it was cooler yesterday, the same fate would have been met. The rates alone was the problem for the metros to be able to overcome the march sun
  20. Can’t say I’m mad about having 5” of snow OTG while Boston gets hosed with cold rain.
  21. 4.5-5” OTG. Light snow with bursts of moderate snow falling. A little round 2 of sorts appears to be gearing up with some precip blossoming down near Cville and by Cumberland out west. The Hrrr has been fairly consistent in showing this secondary wave of precip overhead after the main precip shield moves NE. Could lay down an additional inch or two for the northern tier.
  22. Easily over 2” Moderate snow 31F 3-6” forecast should easily verify
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