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Everything posted by jayyy

  1. Very true that we could end up in a super niño regime. Believe there are other factors at play though. Weak niños can still end up being dry / warm for the east and super niños can still end up being snowy and cold.
  2. I despise his analysis as much as the next weenie… but if we’re truly headed for a moderate to decently strong El Niño, this may be (generally) accurate. Early season could skew things a bit warmer… but I suspect we’ll have a deep wintry period to offset some of that. Active southern jet & subdued ridging in the Gulf of Mexico = wetter / cooler than normal for the south & mid Atlantic. Signs are also there that we may finally get some relief from the consistent -PNA pattern that’s made our lives hell for the past several years. Should finally see a +PNA pattern or two pop up this winter. We can and have cashed in without a strong block… but it’s very difficult to cash in if we’re also seeing a persistent -PNA regime. Neutral NAO and +PNA is workable…. -PNA not so much.
  3. West based super niño or bust!!!! In all seriousness… if we’re seeing this same look on models as far as the strength / positioning of the Niño is concerned come late September and beyond… perhaps this winter will make up for the disastrous past few we’ve endured. REALLY like seeing the -PNA regime finally broken down.
  4. Top 3 all time for the twin cities area.
  5. Spring barrier though, no? I’d hold off a few weeks before getting too excited / worried about the strength of the impending niño. Hopefully we don’t get a super niño. Sure, MAYBE we get lucky and see another once in a blue moon monster like 2016, but those are hard to come by and it’ll likely be followed by another 2+ years of niña. A moderate to borderline strong niño is better for us.
  6. Pretty dynamic storm out in the plains. Blizzard warning in the twin cities for 6-12” and tornado warnings in Iowa.
  7. Heat sucks. Humidity sucks. Give me either snow / cold or 50s maybe low 60s, low humidity and sunny. I enjoy a cool spring day. Summer is my body’s kryptonite. 70s is bearable but 80+ and I’m profusely sweating [emoji28]
  8. If I could pick an ideal weather, outside of having cold and snow, I’d pick 50s and sunny all year. I loathe the heat.
  9. I’d take snow in may. No rush here. I despise the heat. I was referring to the purple on the snow map, not the temp map. Just commenting on the fact that the 6” the gfs showed IMBY earlier is likely BS is all.
  10. Cold and dry in mid to late march. Fun.
  11. You forgot to tell us how much your vacation cost per night. We’ve been eagerly awaiting [emoji1787]
  12. Purpled at 228 hours in late march. What could go wrong
  13. I feel like January February and march are all going to end with a very similar average temp. Odd
  14. Beacon is just east of the Hudson River, has little elevation, and deals with shadowing. Zero shot they got 43” [emoji23] Now, it is true though that snow totals varied greatly in relatively small areas in NY and western MA with this last storm. I drove home through that area the day after and it was pretty incredible to see how much snow was OTG in certain areas versus others. Where I stayed saw 22” of snow, all of which fell at 32-33 degrees. Shadowing in areas close to the Berkshires, Catskills, Adirondacks, etc is very real and can lead to the valleys getting much lower amounts than elevated areas. Especially because temps were so marginal… but seeing a 43” report in a place like beacon is laughable. I grew up in that area and know it well and definitely can smell bullshit on that report. But I bet elevated areas nearby did see close to 18”. The reporting was all over the place. Massachusetts saw similar discrepancies. Totals ranged from 3-4” to 40”. Some of that is legit due to elevation and being colder with better lift, but there are definitely some very suspect lowland reports mixed in there.
  15. Except 2-3 days later, the energy off the west coast comes onshore and deepens into yet another trough, with heights pumping out east. Eek.
  16. GEPS looks like it was *trying* to get something going.
  17. 00z icon tried it… but too progressive
  18. An inland low surrounded by 4 highs, what could go wrong [emoji23] .
  19. Yay, another 12 feet of snow for the Cali mountains lol
  20. What? The Ukie and Canadian showed snowstorms as well. Euro GFS showed big hits for the lower Hudson valley for days. Things fell apart for NYC metro big time within the final 48 hours.
  21. 192 hours away lol. 90+% of storms this year and in this pattern too have trended further north. Ask NYC. They were teed up for a sizable snowstorm on most models until 24-36 hours before yesterdays event. Hell, it looked like we could get hit 6 days ago by yesterdays event. There’s a ton of time left. We’re talking about a storm 6-7 days out. The difference between the storm sliding out to sea south of us and running up the coast comes down to wave spacing in this case. Some crazy shift at h5 isn’t needed to make this work. Your pessimism is completely understandable given our luck this year, but I wouldn’t count us out yet. Especially inland areas.
  22. We haven’t been failing because of the pac this month though. It’s been the NS. The pac hasn’t been ideal, but it also hasn’t been hostile the past couple of weeks either. We have seen tons of snowstorms over the years with a negative or neutral PNA. The fails lately have been because of the NS. Still time for this one to improve but if we keep our expectations low we won’t be disappointed
  23. Either the NS or that 1030-1040 high (depending on the model) not being there come game time.
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