jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Get some sleep brother. We’ll analyze some more tomorrow.
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If you listen closely enough you can still hear people sliding off greased poles
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Richmond is only like 2 hrs and 15 mins from Baltimore… yikes
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Hi res models or bust [emoji12] I’ll be interested to see how the euro looks at 12z
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Fellas… I know we dick around in here way more than we probably should, but let’s keep the squabbling to a minimum.
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Disagree there. The mean is clearly NW of 18z. DC and Baltimore see a few more inches of snow and the purples make it further north in Jersey. Pretty clear there. The vort is also more consolidated leading in if I’m seeing that correctly.
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I mean it did cut his snow by like 40%. But if we’re solely basing our comparison on the resulting clown maps… it’s my opinion that it’s not a massive difference when you zoom out and look at the whole region. Maximum area in VA is nearly the same. Total snowfall in Baltimore is the same. The EPS is better and QPF bumped. That being said.. I’d love to see things move further in our direction by tomorrow’s 12z and 0z runs.. Hoping we things trend back toward a more consolidated vort and a full phase
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Precisely my point. I mean don’t get me wrong.. I’m skeptical as hell about the euro’s outcome given seasonal trends, but it’s also THE model people shouldn’t ignore, especially in its bread and butter range. Perhaps I’m wishcasting. If it caves tomorrow, we’re likely cooked.. but for now.. not all hope is lost for at least some snow out of this.
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It’s also very much in its wheelhouse 4 days out. NAM surely isn’t… but it shows a similar progression at h5 between hours 48-72. Don’t get me wrong… I’m discouraged by the fact that the Canadian gfs and ukie were dog shit… but 2/3 of those models kinda suck
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I’ll die laughing if the euro bombs out lol. We are in its prime range so if it also shows what the cmc and ukie do…
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Yikes.
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Richmond gets deez nuts. Nothing more.
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To be fair, 12 hours ago was also 4 days lead time and the euro icon and gfs all showed a foot plus. But yeah, if this thing hasn’t improved come 00z runs tomorrow night, we’re likely headed for another advisory to low end warning event. Unless the cmc is right… cause then we’d be left with nothing but our weenies in our hand.
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Extrapolate, you will. Heavy snow, we receive.
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The euro really was better at 18z wrt the ULL being more amped and it looked slightly better out west. Hope to see that trend continue tonight so we can get back to our regularly scheduled MECS programming
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Good thing this is the mid Atlantic forum then. Ya know, south of the Mason Dixon
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When do we get into extrapolate the NAM territory (kidding, kinda)
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Not really. Majority of folks got 0 accumulation
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Agreed. Unfortunately, people saw 24” clown maps and anything less than that is a fail now. Verbatim the blend is a warning event for 95% of us
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Doesn’t come off hostile at all. I’m trying to learn, so I appreciate your insight
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Is that a kicker system in the Rockies as our storm moves east? The trough moving through out there. Maybe that’s what’s getting in the way of a full blow up? admittedly not great at deciphering 500mb maps
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I have little doubt that we can still go on heaters. Will it be harder than years past? Probably. Elephant in the room and all. Yes, it’s been harder to snow out on the margins the last 8 or so years, but I do think we can still see 30-40+” during a +PDO modoki winter.
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That was an incredible 2 weeks to experience up there. I was honestly spoiled rotten wrt snow when I was younger. The retrograde system was unreal. We seemingly got at least one KU each year from 96 to 2010. It was an incredible 20 year stretch for the nyc suburbs. Above average snowfall most years. Then I moved down here and we get shellacked Jan 2016. Been all downhill since then but hoping this year is the start of a snowier set of winters for us as the pac becomes less hostile.
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If you zoom in far enough you can see the lighter blue from dca’s report [emoji23]
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GFS starting up
