jayyy

HRRR was awful with the last storm, even in the immediate term. It was already snowing outside and it had the storm essentially missing us to the North with 4-6+ amounts in SW PA. Using the HRRR 24+ hours out is a fools errand.

So do the pbp yourself.. ya weenie

Scott alluded to that earlier as well. Certainly not impossible that the storm ends up being a bit more dynamic as the vort passes. If models are dry by even 0.2 qpf, that’s the difference between 1-3 and 3-5

Evening time is the best time to moisten up… so I hear @ravensrule .

Interesting. He give a reason? Or is his inner weenie whispering sweet nothings in his ear

You weren’t here last storm? Yeah imma need you to stay put dawg

All models show between 1-4” of snow for most of us. While what we need to improve differs from last storm, we are in a similar position in that it appears very likely it will snow and that the path to a bit of a boom scenario (3-5 instead of 1-3) isn’t THAT far off. 00z tomorrow will be pretty telling as to whether or not this system will be a bit more juiced than models show currently. Setup doesn’t exactly favor this outcome but you never know.

Not necessarily opposed to the jet being shunted south if we don’t also have an overwhelming block to shove storms out to sea. Leaves room for us to get a bit lucky and have a storm track up from the south off the NC VA coastline. +PNA helps when we don’t have an omega 2 or 3 block in place. Room to score, even if unconventional.

Things haven’t changed really. 1-4” type event depending on location, with enough changes still occurring on models that this could still trend for the better or worse between now and showtime. We’ve also JUST seen a solid areawide 4-6” snow with cold temps and an unmelted snowpack, so people aren’t foaming at the mouth as much.

Still doable but 9/10 times, we’d rather need a north nudge than the opposite. Perhaps this time since it’s already quite cold all the way to the gulf coast, models are underestimating how far south this SW tracks / digs, but idk. I’m just an amateur weenie.

13 degrees. Brrrr! Forecasted low is 8 by 6-7am .

Can’t say I’d be mad about that at all.

Clearly not that obvious since numerous people in this subforum obsess over HECS like they are supposed to hit us seasonally

I’d take a look at bob’s posts from the past few weeks. The likelihood of having a big block in place the entire winter is quite low. I highly doubt we see the NAO flip positive and remain positive through end of winter. If anything, we likely see the block erode (neutral to slightly positive NAO) before reloading again by Valentine’s Day, which isn’t the worst thing in the world. It can still snow with a neutral or slightly positive NAO if you have some other factors working in your favor. You’re clearly big dog hunting (nothing wrong with that) and many of those have occurred when the block is decaying or the NAO is trending positive.

Passing out drunk outside during a snowstorm and waking up covered in 4” of snow is legendary. But yeah, you’re never gonna live last night down [emoji23]

Called that HoCo jackpot. Happy for my former county-mates!

Wouldn’t be historic if we had them every year or even every two years. MECS / SECS are way more common than HECS+. There’s a reason it’s considered historic. Also, a week to reload the pattern / cold doesn’t have any impact on whether or not we see a HECS between early feb - march. I get being jaded from the past few years but man, you really do always look for the negatives. No model, especially a long range ensemble or the weeklies, is going to be able to tell you whether or not we see a HECS by winters end. The same exact models could show a HECS potential tomorrow. Wouldn’t worry so much about things that are several weeks out.

#moister .

First time in god knows how long that I got more snow than my parents did from a storm that impacted both of our areas. (Union bridge MD vs. Middletown NY)

BOOM SHAKALAKA

This includes 7pm last night and onward. So.. 2-3” in some spots were from last nights system? Or am I mathing incorrectly. Apologies I just woke up.

Nothing wrong with 10:1 for that storm. Bob said it above and I agree, 10:1 is certainly attainable. Setup is there.

The good news is that models often trend diggier / more amped / closer to the coast and not the other way around. It’s when we need things to trend colder / further SE / more progressive that we tend to get bucked

NWS going with snow likely - 70% chance for Friday

Unreal. Another 1-3 feet expected in and around buffalo. Nothing like getting 6 feet of snow in 5 days.